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Global backtracking of anthropogenic radionuclides by means of a receptor oriented ensemble dispersion modelling system in support of Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification

Identifieur interne : 009562 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 009561; suivant : 009563

Global backtracking of anthropogenic radionuclides by means of a receptor oriented ensemble dispersion modelling system in support of Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification

Auteurs : Andreas Becker [Autriche] ; Gerhard Wotawa [Autriche] ; Lars-Erik De Geer [Autriche] ; Petra Seibert [Autriche] ; Roland R. Draxler [États-Unis] ; Craig Sloan [États-Unis] ; Real D'Amours [Canada] ; Matthew Hort [Royaume-Uni] ; Hubert Glaab [Allemagne] ; Philippe Heinrich [France] ; Yves Grillon [Russie] ; Vyacheslav Shershakov [Japon] ; Keiichi Katayama [République populaire de Chine] ; YUETANG ZHANG [Australie] ; Paul Stewart ; Marcus Hirtl [Autriche] ; Michel Jean [Canada] ; Peter Chen [Suisse]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:07-0359784

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a methodology for quality assessment of backtracking models. We present results illustrating the level of agreement between the backtracking models, and the accuracy of each model and the ensemble model in resolving the geo-temporal reference of a single point source. Both assessments are based on an ensemble of 12 different Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling (LPDM) systems utilized in receptor oriented (adjoint) mode during an international numerical experiment dedicated to source region estimation. As major result, we can confirm that the findings of Galmarini et al. [2004b. Ensemble prediction forecasting-Part II: application and evaluation. Atmospheric Environment 38, 4619-4632] and Delle Monache and Stull [2003. An ensemble air-quality forecast over Europe during an ozone episode. Atmospheric Environment 37, 3469-3474], regarding the superiority of the ensemble dispersion forecast over a single forecast, do also apply to LPDM when utilized for backtracking purposes, in particular if only vague a priori knowledge of the source time is available. This, however, is a likely situation in the context of the global nuclear monitoring performed by the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), where quick but reliable source location identification is required. We introduce a simple methodology as a template for a future electronic emergency response system in the field of dispersion modelling.


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Le document en format XML

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<s1>National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie</s1>
<s2>Haidian District, Beijing 100081</s2>
<s3>CHN</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>République populaire de Chine</country>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Yuetang Zhang" sort="Yuetang Zhang" uniqKey="Yuetang Zhang" last="Yuetang Zhang">YUETANG ZHANG</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="12">
<s1>National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street</s1>
<s2>Melbourne, Victoria 3000</s2>
<s3>AUS</s3>
<sZ>14 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Australie</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Melbourne, Victoria 3000</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Stewart, Paul" sort="Stewart, Paul" uniqKey="Stewart P" first="Paul" last="Stewart">Paul Stewart</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hirtl, Marcus" sort="Hirtl, Marcus" uniqKey="Hirtl M" first="Marcus" last="Hirtl">Marcus Hirtl</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<inist:fA14 i1="13">
<s1>Zentrafanstalt für Météorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Hohe Warte 38</s1>
<s2>1190 Vienna</s2>
<s3>AUT</s3>
<sZ>16 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Autriche</country>
<placeName>
<region type="land" nuts="2">Vienne (Autriche)</region>
<settlement type="city">Vienne (Autriche)</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Jean, Michel" sort="Jean, Michel" uniqKey="Jean M" first="Michel" last="Jean">Michel Jean</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="05">
<s1>Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environmental Emergency Response Division, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway</s1>
<s2>Dorval, Que., H9P IJ3</s2>
<s3>CAN</s3>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Canada</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Dorval, Que., H9P IJ3</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chen, Peter" sort="Chen, Peter" uniqKey="Chen P" first="Peter" last="Chen">Peter Chen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="14">
<s1>World Meteorological Organization, 7bis, rue de la Paix, PO Box 2300</s1>
<s2>1211 Geneva</s2>
<s3>CHE</s3>
<sZ>18 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Suisse</country>
<wicri:noRegion>1211 Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j" type="main">Atmospheric environment : (1994)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Atmos. environ. : (1994)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1352-2310</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2007">2007</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt>
<title level="j" type="main">Atmospheric environment : (1994)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Atmos. environ. : (1994)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1352-2310</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>Air pollution</term>
<term>Algorithm performance</term>
<term>Atmospheric dispersion</term>
<term>Comparative study</term>
<term>Emergency system</term>
<term>Ensemble simulation</term>
<term>Lagrangian model</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Numerical simulation</term>
<term>Point source</term>
<term>Pollution source</term>
<term>Radioactive pollution</term>
<term>Radioisotope</term>
<term>Software performance evaluation</term>
<term>Source localization</term>
<term>Trajectory</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Pollution air</term>
<term>Pollution radioactive</term>
<term>Radioisotope</term>
<term>Source pollution</term>
<term>Source ponctuelle</term>
<term>Localisation source</term>
<term>Trajectoire</term>
<term>Modélisation</term>
<term>Etude comparative</term>
<term>Simulation numérique</term>
<term>Modèle Lagrange</term>
<term>Dispersion atmosphérique</term>
<term>Evaluation performance logiciel</term>
<term>Performance algorithme</term>
<term>Système urgence</term>
<term>Simulation ensemble</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Pollution radioactive</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In this paper, we introduce a methodology for quality assessment of backtracking models. We present results illustrating the level of agreement between the backtracking models, and the accuracy of each model and the ensemble model in resolving the geo-temporal reference of a single point source. Both assessments are based on an ensemble of 12 different Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling (LPDM) systems utilized in receptor oriented (adjoint) mode during an international numerical experiment dedicated to source region estimation. As major result, we can confirm that the findings of Galmarini et al. [2004b. Ensemble prediction forecasting-Part II: application and evaluation. Atmospheric Environment 38, 4619-4632] and Delle Monache and Stull [2003. An ensemble air-quality forecast over Europe during an ozone episode. Atmospheric Environment 37, 3469-3474], regarding the superiority of the ensemble dispersion forecast over a single forecast, do also apply to LPDM when utilized for backtracking purposes, in particular if only vague a priori knowledge of the source time is available. This, however, is a likely situation in the context of the global nuclear monitoring performed by the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), where quick but reliable source location identification is required. We introduce a simple methodology as a template for a future electronic emergency response system in the field of dispersion modelling.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>Autriche</li>
<li>Canada</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Japon</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>Russie</li>
<li>République populaire de Chine</li>
<li>Suisse</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Région de Kantō</li>
<li>Vienne (Autriche)</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Pékin</li>
<li>Tokyo</li>
<li>Vienne (Autriche)</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree>
<noCountry>
<name sortKey="Stewart, Paul" sort="Stewart, Paul" uniqKey="Stewart P" first="Paul" last="Stewart">Paul Stewart</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="Autriche">
<region name="Vienne (Autriche)">
<name sortKey="Becker, Andreas" sort="Becker, Andreas" uniqKey="Becker A" first="Andreas" last="Becker">Andreas Becker</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="De Geer, Lars Erik" sort="De Geer, Lars Erik" uniqKey="De Geer L" first="Lars-Erik" last="De Geer">Lars-Erik De Geer</name>
<name sortKey="Hirtl, Marcus" sort="Hirtl, Marcus" uniqKey="Hirtl M" first="Marcus" last="Hirtl">Marcus Hirtl</name>
<name sortKey="Seibert, Petra" sort="Seibert, Petra" uniqKey="Seibert P" first="Petra" last="Seibert">Petra Seibert</name>
<name sortKey="Wotawa, Gerhard" sort="Wotawa, Gerhard" uniqKey="Wotawa G" first="Gerhard" last="Wotawa">Gerhard Wotawa</name>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Draxler, Roland R" sort="Draxler, Roland R" uniqKey="Draxler R" first="Roland R." last="Draxler">Roland R. Draxler</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Sloan, Craig" sort="Sloan, Craig" uniqKey="Sloan C" first="Craig" last="Sloan">Craig Sloan</name>
</country>
<country name="Canada">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="D Amours, Real" sort="D Amours, Real" uniqKey="D Amours R" first="Real" last="D'Amours">Real D'Amours</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Jean, Michel" sort="Jean, Michel" uniqKey="Jean M" first="Michel" last="Jean">Michel Jean</name>
</country>
<country name="Royaume-Uni">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Hort, Matthew" sort="Hort, Matthew" uniqKey="Hort M" first="Matthew" last="Hort">Matthew Hort</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Allemagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Glaab, Hubert" sort="Glaab, Hubert" uniqKey="Glaab H" first="Hubert" last="Glaab">Hubert Glaab</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="France">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Heinrich, Philippe" sort="Heinrich, Philippe" uniqKey="Heinrich P" first="Philippe" last="Heinrich">Philippe Heinrich</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Russie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Grillon, Yves" sort="Grillon, Yves" uniqKey="Grillon Y" first="Yves" last="Grillon">Yves Grillon</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Japon">
<region name="Région de Kantō">
<name sortKey="Shershakov, Vyacheslav" sort="Shershakov, Vyacheslav" uniqKey="Shershakov V" first="Vyacheslav" last="Shershakov">Vyacheslav Shershakov</name>
</region>
</country>
<country name="République populaire de Chine">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Katayama, Keiichi" sort="Katayama, Keiichi" uniqKey="Katayama K" first="Keiichi" last="Katayama">Keiichi Katayama</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Yuetang Zhang" sort="Yuetang Zhang" uniqKey="Yuetang Zhang" last="Yuetang Zhang">YUETANG ZHANG</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Suisse">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Chen, Peter" sort="Chen, Peter" uniqKey="Chen P" first="Peter" last="Chen">Peter Chen</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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