Estimating the potential for disease spread in horses associated with an equestrian show in Ontario, Canada using an agent-based model.
Identifieur interne : 000053 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000052; suivant : 000054Estimating the potential for disease spread in horses associated with an equestrian show in Ontario, Canada using an agent-based model.
Auteurs : Kelsey L. Spence ; Terri L. O'Sullivan ; Zvonimir Poljak ; Amy L. GreerSource :
- Preventive veterinary medicine [ 1873-1716 ] ; 2018.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Disease Outbreaks (veterinary), Horse Diseases (epidemiology), Horse Diseases (prevention & control), Horse Diseases (transmission), Horses, Incidence, Models, Theoretical, Ontario (epidemiology), Orthomyxoviridae Infections (epidemiology), Orthomyxoviridae Infections (prevention & control), Orthomyxoviridae Infections (transmission), Orthomyxoviridae Infections (veterinary), Quarantine (statistics & numerical data), Quarantine (veterinary).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Horse Diseases, Ontario, Orthomyxoviridae Infections.
- prevention & control : Horse Diseases, Orthomyxoviridae Infections.
- statistics & numerical data : Quarantine.
- transmission : Horse Diseases, Orthomyxoviridae Infections.
- veterinary : Disease Outbreaks, Orthomyxoviridae Infections, Quarantine.
- Animals, Horses, Incidence, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
Participation in equestrian shows provides opportunities for contact between horses, increasing the risk of disease introduction and spread within the population. The magnitude of a potential outbreak, and the impact of disease prevention and control strategies, can be estimated using simulation modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the potential spread of equine influenza in a network of horses associated with a 2-day equestrian show in Ontario, Canada; and (2) determine the effectiveness of several interventions during a simulated outbreak. A discrete-event, continuous-time, stochastic agent-based simulation model was constructed to represent horses associated with the show, including those in attendance at the show, and those that were not in attendance but co-boarded with attending horses at their home facilities. At the beginning of each simulation run, one random horse in attendance at the show was infected with equine influenza. In the absence of interventions, the median attack rate was 0.029 (IQR: 0.016-0.056; mean: 0.043; 95% CI: 0.040-0.044) and the average outbreak duration was 19.58 days (95% CI: 19.31-19.85). The most effective intervention was the implementation of either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period, which both resulted in the same median attack rate of 0.0026 (IQR: 0.0013-0.0039), although the mean attack rates differed (mean: 0.0043, 95% CI: 0.0039-0.0046; and mean: 0.0029, 95% CI: 0.0028-0.0029; respectively). In instances where implementing either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period would not be feasible, quarantine for shorter time periods was effective when combined with targeted increases in initial facility-level vaccine coverage. The combined implementation of a 2-day quarantine period and an increased vaccine coverage of 75% in facilities with four or more owners resulted in a median attack rate of 0.013 (IQR: 0.0052-0.026; mean: 0.022; 95% CI: 0.020-0.024). This study demonstrates a relative comparison of intervention effectiveness during a simulated outbreak of equine influenza in a population of horses associated with an equestrian show. The results have the potential to inform and improve the current strategies used to prevent the introduction and spread of disease within the equine population.
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.12.013
PubMed: 29496102
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:29496102Le document en format XML
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Electronic address: tosulliv@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poljak, Zvonimir" sort="Poljak, Zvonimir" uniqKey="Poljak Z" first="Zvonimir" last="Poljak">Zvonimir Poljak</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: zpoljak@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Greer, Amy L" sort="Greer, Amy L" uniqKey="Greer A" first="Amy L" last="Greer">Amy L. Greer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. 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Electronic address: kspenc04@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="O Sullivan, Terri L" sort="O Sullivan, Terri L" uniqKey="O Sullivan T" first="Terri L" last="O'Sullivan">Terri L. O'Sullivan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: tosulliv@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poljak, Zvonimir" sort="Poljak, Zvonimir" uniqKey="Poljak Z" first="Zvonimir" last="Poljak">Zvonimir Poljak</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: zpoljak@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Greer, Amy L" sort="Greer, Amy L" uniqKey="Greer A" first="Amy L" last="Greer">Amy L. Greer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: agreer@uoguelph.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Preventive veterinary medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">1873-1716</idno><imprint><date when="2018" type="published">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (veterinary)</term><term>Horse Diseases (epidemiology)</term><term>Horse Diseases (prevention & control)</term><term>Horse Diseases (transmission)</term><term>Horses</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Ontario (epidemiology)</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections (prevention & control)</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections (transmission)</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections (veterinary)</term><term>Quarantine (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Quarantine (veterinary)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Horse Diseases</term><term>Ontario</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Horse Diseases</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Quarantine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Horse Diseases</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="veterinary" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae Infections</term><term>Quarantine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Horses</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Participation in equestrian shows provides opportunities for contact between horses, increasing the risk of disease introduction and spread within the population. The magnitude of a potential outbreak, and the impact of disease prevention and control strategies, can be estimated using simulation modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the potential spread of equine influenza in a network of horses associated with a 2-day equestrian show in Ontario, Canada; and (2) determine the effectiveness of several interventions during a simulated outbreak. A discrete-event, continuous-time, stochastic agent-based simulation model was constructed to represent horses associated with the show, including those in attendance at the show, and those that were not in attendance but co-boarded with attending horses at their home facilities. At the beginning of each simulation run, one random horse in attendance at the show was infected with equine influenza. In the absence of interventions, the median attack rate was 0.029 (IQR: 0.016-0.056; mean: 0.043; 95% CI: 0.040-0.044) and the average outbreak duration was 19.58 days (95% CI: 19.31-19.85). The most effective intervention was the implementation of either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period, which both resulted in the same median attack rate of 0.0026 (IQR: 0.0013-0.0039), although the mean attack rates differed (mean: 0.0043, 95% CI: 0.0039-0.0046; and mean: 0.0029, 95% CI: 0.0028-0.0029; respectively). In instances where implementing either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period would not be feasible, quarantine for shorter time periods was effective when combined with targeted increases in initial facility-level vaccine coverage. The combined implementation of a 2-day quarantine period and an increased vaccine coverage of 75% in facilities with four or more owners resulted in a median attack rate of 0.013 (IQR: 0.0052-0.026; mean: 0.022; 95% CI: 0.020-0.024). This study demonstrates a relative comparison of intervention effectiveness during a simulated outbreak of equine influenza in a population of horses associated with an equestrian show. The results have the potential to inform and improve the current strategies used to prevent the introduction and spread of disease within the equine population.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">29496102</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2018</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>14</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1873-1716</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>151</Volume><PubDate><Year>2018</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Preventive veterinary medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Prev. Vet. Med.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimating the potential for disease spread in horses associated with an equestrian show in Ontario, Canada using an agent-based model.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>21-28</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0167-5877(17)30373-2</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.12.013</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Participation in equestrian shows provides opportunities for contact between horses, increasing the risk of disease introduction and spread within the population. The magnitude of a potential outbreak, and the impact of disease prevention and control strategies, can be estimated using simulation modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the potential spread of equine influenza in a network of horses associated with a 2-day equestrian show in Ontario, Canada; and (2) determine the effectiveness of several interventions during a simulated outbreak. A discrete-event, continuous-time, stochastic agent-based simulation model was constructed to represent horses associated with the show, including those in attendance at the show, and those that were not in attendance but co-boarded with attending horses at their home facilities. At the beginning of each simulation run, one random horse in attendance at the show was infected with equine influenza. In the absence of interventions, the median attack rate was 0.029 (IQR: 0.016-0.056; mean: 0.043; 95% CI: 0.040-0.044) and the average outbreak duration was 19.58 days (95% CI: 19.31-19.85). The most effective intervention was the implementation of either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period, which both resulted in the same median attack rate of 0.0026 (IQR: 0.0013-0.0039), although the mean attack rates differed (mean: 0.0043, 95% CI: 0.0039-0.0046; and mean: 0.0029, 95% CI: 0.0028-0.0029; respectively). In instances where implementing either a 5-day or 14-day quarantine period would not be feasible, quarantine for shorter time periods was effective when combined with targeted increases in initial facility-level vaccine coverage. The combined implementation of a 2-day quarantine period and an increased vaccine coverage of 75% in facilities with four or more owners resulted in a median attack rate of 0.013 (IQR: 0.0052-0.026; mean: 0.022; 95% CI: 0.020-0.024). This study demonstrates a relative comparison of intervention effectiveness during a simulated outbreak of equine influenza in a population of horses associated with an equestrian show. The results have the potential to inform and improve the current strategies used to prevent the introduction and spread of disease within the equine population.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Spence</LastName><ForeName>Kelsey L</ForeName><Initials>KL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: kspenc04@uoguelph.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>O'Sullivan</LastName><ForeName>Terri L</ForeName><Initials>TL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: tosulliv@uoguelph.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poljak</LastName><ForeName>Zvonimir</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: zpoljak@uoguelph.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Greer</LastName><ForeName>Amy L</ForeName><Initials>AL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada. Electronic address: agreer@uoguelph.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2017</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>22</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>Prev Vet Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>8217463</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0167-5877</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000662" MajorTopicYN="Y">veterinary</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006734" MajorTopicYN="Y">Horse Diseases</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006736" MajorTopicYN="N">Horses</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015994" MajorTopicYN="N">Incidence</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009864" MajorTopicYN="N">Ontario</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009976" MajorTopicYN="N">Orthomyxoviridae Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000662" MajorTopicYN="Y">veterinary</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011790" MajorTopicYN="N">Quarantine</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000662" MajorTopicYN="Y">veterinary</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Agent-based model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Computer simulation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Equine</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Equine influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Social network analysis</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2017</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2017</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2017</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2018</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2018</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2018</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29496102</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0167-5877(17)30373-2</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.12.013</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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