Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model
Identifieur interne : 000593 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000592; suivant : 000594Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model
Auteurs : B. Shen ; M. Demaria ; J. F. Li ; S. CheungSource :
- Geophysical Research Letters [ 0094-8276 ] ; 2013-09-28.
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low‐level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper‐level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low‐level WWB and upper‐level trough are likely associated with a Madden‐Julian Oscillation.
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DOI: 10.1002/grl.50934
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<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model</title><author><name sortKey="Shen, B" sort="Shen, B" uniqKey="Shen B" first="B." last="Shen">B. Shen</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>UMCP/ESSIC, College Park, Maryland, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NASA/GSFC, Maryland, Greenbelt, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Demaria, M" sort="Demaria, M" uniqKey="Demaria M" first="M." last="Demaria">M. Demaria</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NOAA/NESDIS, Colorado, Fort Collins, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, J F" sort="Li, J F" uniqKey="Li J" first="J. F." last="Li">J. F. 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Shen</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>UMCP/ESSIC, College Park, Maryland, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NASA/GSFC, Maryland, Greenbelt, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Demaria, M" sort="Demaria, M" uniqKey="Demaria M" first="M." last="Demaria">M. Demaria</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NOAA/NESDIS, Colorado, Fort Collins, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, J F" sort="Li, J F" uniqKey="Li J" first="J. F." last="Li">J. F. Li</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>CalTech/JPL, California, Pasadena, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cheung, S" sort="Cheung, S" uniqKey="Cheung S" first="S." last="Cheung">S. Cheung</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NASA/ARC, California, Moffett Field, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Geophys. Res. Lett.</title><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2013-09-28">2013-09-28</date><biblScope unit="volume">40</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="4944">4944</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="4950">4950</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></series><idno type="istex">13C8D8DBFE4EC0495C1BA1D17A02ECEDD3C357BE</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1002/grl.50934</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GRL50934</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low‐level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper‐level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low‐level WWB and upper‐level trough are likely associated with a Madden‐Julian Oscillation.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>B.‐W. 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Shen, ESSIC, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct. #4001, College Park, MD 20740, USA. ()</p></note><affiliation>UMCP/ESSIC, College Park, Maryland, USA</affiliation><affiliation>NASA/GSFC, Maryland, Greenbelt, USA</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">M.</forename><surname>DeMaria</surname></persName><affiliation>NOAA/NESDIS, Colorado, Fort Collins, USA</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">J.‐L. F.</forename><surname>Li</surname></persName><affiliation>CalTech/JPL, California, Pasadena, USA</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-4"><persName><forename type="first">S.</forename><surname>Cheung</surname></persName><affiliation>NASA/ARC, California, Moffett Field, USA</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Geophys. Res. Lett.</title><idno type="pISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2013-09-28"></date><biblScope unit="volume">40</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="4944">4944</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="4950">4950</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">13C8D8DBFE4EC0495C1BA1D17A02ECEDD3C357BE</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1002/grl.50934</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GRL50934</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2013-09-11</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract><p>In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low‐level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper‐level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low‐level WWB and upper‐level trough are likely associated with a Madden‐Julian Oscillation.</p></abstract><abstract style="short"><p>A GMM produced a remarkable 7‐day track and intensity forecast of TC SandySandy's genesis was realistically simulated with a lead time of up to six daysThe lead time is attributed to the improved simulations of multiscale systems</p></abstract><textClass><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>Hurricane Sandy</term></item><item><term>genesis predictability</term></item><item><term>global mesoscale model</term></item><item><term>MJO</term></item><item><term>multiscale interactions</term></item><item><term>easterly wave</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass><keywords scheme="Journal Subject"><list><head>index-terms</head><item><term>COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS</term></item><item><term>Modeling</term></item><item><term>GLOBAL CHANGE</term></item><item><term>Global climate models</term></item><item><term>INFORMATICS</term></item><item><term>Modeling</term></item><item><term>MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS</term></item><item><term>Prediction</term></item><item><term>Probabilistic forecasting</term></item><item><term>ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</term></item><item><term>Tropical cyclones</term></item><item><term>Global climate models</term></item><item><term>Mesoscale meteorology</term></item><item><term>OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</term></item><item><term>Numerical modeling</term></item><item><term>Ocean predictability and prediction</term></item><item><term>NATURAL HAZARDS</term></item><item><term>Physical modeling</term></item><item><term>Monitoring, forecasting, prediction</term></item><item><term>PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</term></item><item><term>Global climate models</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass><keywords scheme="Journal Subject"><list><head>article-category</head><item><term>Regular Article</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2013-07-30">Received</change><change when="2013-09-06">Registration</change><change when="2013-09-11">Created</change><change when="2013-09-28">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><extension>txt</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/13C8D8DBFE4EC0495C1BA1D17A02ECEDD3C357BE/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:lang="en" xml:id="grl50934"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi>10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</doi><issn type="print">0094-8276</issn><issn type="electronic">1944-8007</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GRL"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title type="short">Geophys. 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The Authors. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i> published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union.</copyright><legalStatement type="creativeCommonsBy-nc-nd"><p>This is an open access article under the terms of the <url href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/">Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs</url> License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.</p></legalStatement><eventGroup><event type="manuscriptReceived" date="2013-07-30"></event><event type="manuscriptRevised" date="2013-09-05"></event><event type="manuscriptAccepted" date="2013-09-06"></event><event type="xmlCreated" agent="SPi Global" date="2013-09-11"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.4.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-03-25"></event><event type="publishedOnlineAccepted" date="2013-09-10"></event><event type="publishedOnlineEarlyUnpaginated" date="2013-09-19"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2013-10-11"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2013-09-19"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.6.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-10-05"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">4944</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">4950</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Corresponding author: B.‐W. Shen, ESSIC, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct. #4001, College Park, MD 20740, USA. (<email normalForm="bo-wen.shen-1@nasa.gov">bo‐wen.shen‐1@nasa.gov</email>)</correspondenceTo><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0500">COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0545">Modeling</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600" role="crossTerm">GLOBAL CHANGE</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1626" role="crossTerm">Global climate models</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1900" role="crossTerm">INFORMATICS</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1952" role="crossTerm">Modeling</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3200">MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3238">Prediction</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3245" role="crossTerm">Probabilistic forecasting</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3372">Tropical cyclones</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3337">Global climate models</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3329">Mesoscale meteorology</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4200" role="crossTerm">OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4255" role="crossTerm">Numerical modeling</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4263" role="crossTerm">Ocean predictability and prediction</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4300" role="crossTerm">NATURAL HAZARDS</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4316" role="crossTerm">Physical modeling</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4315" role="crossTerm">Monitoring, forecasting, prediction</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4900" role="crossTerm">PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4928" role="crossTerm">Global climate models</subject></subjectInfo></subjectInfo><selfCitationGroup><citation type="self" xml:id="grl50934-cit-0000"><author><familyName>Shen</familyName>, <givenNames>B.‐W.</givenNames></author>, <author><givenNames>M.</givenNames><familyName>DeMaria</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>J.‐L. F.</givenNames><familyName>Li</familyName></author>, and <author><givenNames>S.</givenNames><familyName>Cheung</familyName></author> (<pubYear year="2013">2013</pubYear>), <articleTitle>Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model</articleTitle>, <journalTitle>Geophys. Res. 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xml:id="grl50934-aff-0004"><orgName>CalTech/JPL</orgName><address><city>Pasadena</city><countryPart>California</countryPart><country>USA</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="US" type="organization" xml:id="grl50934-aff-0005"><orgName>NASA/ARC</orgName><address><city>Moffett Field</city><countryPart>California</countryPart><country>USA</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0001">Hurricane Sandy</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0002">genesis predictability</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0003">global mesoscale model</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0004">MJO</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0005">multiscale interactions</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl50934-kwd-0006">easterly wave</keyword></keywordGroup><supportingInformation xml:id="grl50934-supinf-0001"><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0001"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" 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xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0005"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS4_fin"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0006"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS5_fin"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0007"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS6"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0008"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS7"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0009"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS8"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0010"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:FigureS9"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0011"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/pdf" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:Shenetal2013SandysupplementalFinal"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem xml:id="grl50934-supitem-0012"><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="application/unknown" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:00948276:media:grl50934:Shenetal2013SandySuppREADMEnew"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting Information</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main"><p label="1">In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low‐level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper‐level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low‐level WWB and upper‐level trough are likely associated with a Madden‐Julian Oscillation.</p></abstract><abstract type="short"><title type="main">Key Points</title><p><list style="bulleted" xml:id="grl50934-list-0002"><listItem xml:id="grl50934-li-0004">A GMM produced a remarkable 7‐day track and intensity forecast of TC Sandy</listItem><listItem xml:id="grl50934-li-0005">Sandy's genesis was realistically simulated with a lead time of up to six days</listItem><listItem xml:id="grl50934-li-0006">The lead time is attributed to the improved simulations of multiscale systems</listItem></list></p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>GENESIS PREDICTION OF HURRICANE SANDY</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">B.‐W.</namePart><namePart type="family">Shen</namePart><affiliation>UMCP/ESSIC, College Park, Maryland, USA</affiliation><affiliation>NASA/GSFC, Maryland, Greenbelt, USA</affiliation><description>Correspondence: Corresponding author: B.‐W. Shen, ESSIC, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct. #4001, College Park, MD 20740, USA. ()</description><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">M.</namePart><namePart type="family">DeMaria</namePart><affiliation>NOAA/NESDIS, Colorado, Fort Collins, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J.‐L. F.</namePart><namePart type="family">Li</namePart><affiliation>CalTech/JPL, California, Pasadena, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">S.</namePart><namePart type="family">Cheung</namePart><affiliation>NASA/ARC, California, Moffett Field, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2013-09-28</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2013-09-11</dateCreated><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2013-07-30</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2013-09-06</dateValid><edition>Shen, B.‐W., M. DeMaria, J.‐L. F. Li, and S. Cheung (2013), Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4944–4950, doi:10.1002/grl.50934.</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2013</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType></physicalDescription><abstract>In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low‐level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper‐level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low‐level WWB and upper‐level trough are likely associated with a Madden‐Julian Oscillation.</abstract><abstract type="short">A GMM produced a remarkable 7‐day track and intensity forecast of TC SandySandy's genesis was realistically simulated with a lead time of up to six daysThe lead time is attributed to the improved simulations of multiscale systems</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Supporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting InformationSupporting Information</note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>Hurricane Sandy</topic><topic>genesis predictability</topic><topic>global mesoscale model</topic><topic>MJO</topic><topic>multiscale interactions</topic><topic>easterly wave</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Geophysical Research Letters</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Geophys. Res. Lett.</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>index-terms</genre><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0500">COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0545">Modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1626">Global climate models</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1900">INFORMATICS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1952">Modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3200">MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3238">Prediction</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3245">Probabilistic forecasting</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3372">Tropical cyclones</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3337">Global climate models</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3329">Mesoscale meteorology</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4200">OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4255">Numerical modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4263">Ocean predictability and prediction</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4300">NATURAL HAZARDS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4316">Physical modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4315">Monitoring, forecasting, prediction</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4900">PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4928">Global climate models</topic></subject><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Regular Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">0094-8276</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1944-8007</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">GRL</identifier><part><date>2013</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>40</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>18</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>4944</start><end>4950</end><total>7</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">13C8D8DBFE4EC0495C1BA1D17A02ECEDD3C357BE</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1002/grl.50934</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">GRL50934</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="creativeCommonsBy-nc-nd">This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><enrichments><json:item><type>multicat</type><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/13C8D8DBFE4EC0495C1BA1D17A02ECEDD3C357BE/enrichments/multicat</uri></json:item></enrichments><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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