Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes
Identifieur interne : 000615 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000614; suivant : 000616Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes
Auteurs : Miko U. F. Kirschbaum ; Michael S. Watt ; Andrew Tait ; Anne-Gaelle E. AusseilSource :
- Global Change Biology [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2012-04.
Abstract
The physiologically based growth model CenW was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of Pinus radiata forests to climate change in New Zealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 GCMs forced by the SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing CO2 concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant CO2, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where P. radiata is currently grown, and across the full suite of GCMs and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing CO2 concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing CO2 combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to CO2 depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant CO2 and 1.5% with increasing CO2 concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x
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<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title><author><name sortKey="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" sort="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" uniqKey="Kirschbaum M" first="Miko U. F." last="Kirschbaum">Miko U. F. Kirschbaum</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Watt, Michael S" sort="Watt, Michael S" uniqKey="Watt M" first="Michael S." last="Watt">Michael S. Watt</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Scion, PO Box 29237, 29237, Christchurch, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tait, Andrew" sort="Tait, Andrew" uniqKey="Tait A" first="Andrew" last="Tait">Andrew Tait</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NIWA, Private Bag 14‐901, KilbirnieWellington, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ausseil, Anne Aelle E" sort="Ausseil, Anne Aelle E" uniqKey="Ausseil A" first="Anne-Gaelle E." last="Ausseil">Anne-Gaelle E. Ausseil</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2</idno><date when="2012" year="2012">2012</date><idno type="doi">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000615</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title><author><name sortKey="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" sort="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" uniqKey="Kirschbaum M" first="Miko U. F." last="Kirschbaum">Miko U. F. Kirschbaum</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Watt, Michael S" sort="Watt, Michael S" uniqKey="Watt M" first="Michael S." last="Watt">Michael S. Watt</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Scion, PO Box 29237, 29237, Christchurch, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tait, Andrew" sort="Tait, Andrew" uniqKey="Tait A" first="Andrew" last="Tait">Andrew Tait</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NIWA, Private Bag 14‐901, KilbirnieWellington, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ausseil, Anne Aelle E" sort="Ausseil, Anne Aelle E" uniqKey="Ausseil A" first="Anne-Gaelle E." last="Ausseil">Anne-Gaelle E. Ausseil</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Global Change Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Glob Change Biol</title><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2012-04">2012-04</date><biblScope unit="volume">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1342">1342</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1356">1356</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno></series><idno type="istex">6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GCB2625</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">The physiologically based growth model CenW was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of Pinus radiata forests to climate change in New Zealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 GCMs forced by the SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing CO2 concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant CO2, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where P. radiata is currently grown, and across the full suite of GCMs and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing CO2 concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing CO2 combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to CO2 depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant CO2 and 1.5% with increasing CO2 concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Miko U. F. Kirschbaum</name><affiliations><json:string>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Michael S. Watt</name><affiliations><json:string>Scion, PO Box 29237, 29237, Christchurch, New Zealand</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Andrew Tait</name><affiliations><json:string>NIWA, Private Bag 14‐901, KilbirnieWellington, New Zealand</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Anne‐Gaelle E. Ausseil</name><affiliations><json:string>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>CenW</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>climate change</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>CO2 concentration</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>forest</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>growth</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>modelling</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Pinus radiata</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>temperature</value></json:item></subject><articleId><json:string>GCB2625</json:string></articleId><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>The physiologically based growth model CenW was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of Pinus radiata forests to climate change in New Zealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 GCMs forced by the SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing CO2 concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant CO2, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where P. radiata is currently grown, and across the full suite of GCMs and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing CO2 concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing CO2 combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to CO2 depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant CO2 and 1.5% with increasing CO2 concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>8</score><pdfVersion>1.3</pdfVersion><pdfPageSize>595.276 x 782.362 pts</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>true</refBibsNative><keywordCount>8</keywordCount><abstractCharCount>1984</abstractCharCount><pdfWordCount>8806</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>53064</pdfCharCount><pdfPageCount>15</pdfPageCount><abstractWordCount>294</abstractWordCount></qualityIndicators><title>Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title><genre><json:string>article</json:string></genre><host><volume>18</volume><publisherId><json:string>GCB</json:string></publisherId><pages><total>15</total><last>1356</last><first>1342</first></pages><issn><json:string>1354-1013</json:string></issn><issue>4</issue><subject><json:item><value>Primary Research Article</value></json:item></subject><genre><json:string>journal</json:string></genre><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><eissn><json:string>1365-2486</json:string></eissn><title>Global Change Biology</title><doi><json:string>10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</json:string></doi></host><publicationDate>2012</publicationDate><copyrightDate>2012</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</json:string></doi><id>6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2</id><score>0.11405857</score><fulltext><json:item><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><extension>pdf</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/fulltext/pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><extension>zip</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/fulltext/zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/fulltext/tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><availability><p>Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</p></availability><date>2011-12-13</date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note>Table S1. CO2 concentrations used for simulations of current (1990) and future P. radiata productivity. For each of the 30 year simulations centred on 1990, 2040 and 2090, the initial, mean and annual increase in CO2 concentration are shown. Data obtained from Prentice et al. (2001).</note><note>New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">Miko U. F.</forename><surname>Kirschbaum</surname></persName><note type="correspondence"><p>Correspondence: Miko U.F. Kirschbaum, tel. + 64 6 353 4902, fax + 64 6 353 4801, e‐mail:</p></note><affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">Michael S.</forename><surname>Watt</surname></persName><affiliation>Scion, PO Box 29237, 29237, Christchurch, New Zealand</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">Andrew</forename><surname>Tait</surname></persName><affiliation>NIWA, Private Bag 14‐901, KilbirnieWellington, New Zealand</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-4"><persName><forename type="first">Anne‐Gaelle E.</forename><surname>Ausseil</surname></persName><affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Global Change Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Glob Change Biol</title><idno type="pISSN">1354-1013</idno><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2012-04"></date><biblScope unit="volume">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1342">1342</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1356">1356</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GCB2625</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2011-12-13</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract><p>The physiologically based growth model CenW was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of Pinus radiata forests to climate change in New Zealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 GCMs forced by the SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing CO2 concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant CO2, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where P. radiata is currently grown, and across the full suite of GCMs and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing CO2 concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing CO2 combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to CO2 depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant CO2 and 1.5% with increasing CO2 concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.</p></abstract><textClass><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>CenW</term></item><item><term>climate change</term></item><item><term>CO2 concentration</term></item><item><term>forest</term></item><item><term>growth</term></item><item><term>modelling</term></item><item><term>Pinus radiata</term></item><item><term>temperature</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass><keywords scheme="Journal Subject"><list><head>article-category</head><item><term>Primary Research Article</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2011-10-31">Received</change><change when="2011-11-06">Registration</change><change when="2011-12-13">Created</change><change when="2012-04">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><extension>txt</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:id="gcb2625" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</doi><issn type="print">1354-1013</issn><issn type="electronic">1365-2486</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GCB"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title sort="GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY" type="main">Global Change Biology</title><title type="short">Glob Change Biol</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="04104"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/gcb.2012.18.issue-4</doi><copyright ownership="publisher">Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="18">18</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue">4</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2012-04">April 2012</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" position="120" status="forIssue" type="article"><doi>10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="GCB2625"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count number="15" type="pageTotal"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="articleCategory">Primary Research Article</title><title type="tocHeading1">Primary Research Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright ownership="publisher">© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><eventGroup><event date="2011-10-31" type="manuscriptReceived"></event><event date="2011-10-31" type="manuscriptRevised"></event><event date="2011-11-06" type="manuscriptAccepted"></event><event agent="SPS" date="2011-12-13" type="xmlCreated"></event><event type="publishedOnlineAccepted" date="2011-12-06"></event><event type="publishedOnlineEarlyUnpaginated" date="2012-01-10"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2012-03-15"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2012-01-10"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-25"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.3.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-02-25"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">1342</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">1356</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Correspondence: Miko U.F. Kirschbaum, tel. + 64 6 353 4902, fax + 64 6 353 4801, e‐mail: <email>KirschbaumM@LandcareResearch.co.nz</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:GCB.GCB2625.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><titleGroup><title type="main">Future wood productivity of <i><fc>P</fc>inus radiata</i> in <fc>N</fc>ew <fc>Z</fc>ealand under expected climatic changes</title><title type="shortAuthors">M. U. F. Kirschbaum <i>et al</i>.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2625-aff-0001" corresponding="yes" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2625-cr-0001"><personName><givenNames>Miko U. F.</givenNames> <familyName>Kirschbaum</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2625-aff-0002" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2625-cr-0002"><personName><givenNames>Michael S.</givenNames> <familyName>Watt</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2625-aff-0003" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2625-cr-0003"><personName><givenNames>Andrew</givenNames> <familyName>Tait</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2625-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2625-cr-0004"><personName><givenNames>Anne‐Gaelle E.</givenNames> <familyName>Ausseil</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="NZ" type="organization" xml:id="gcb2625-aff-0001"><orgName>Landcare Research</orgName> <address><street>Private Bag 11052</street> <city>Palmerston North</city> <country>New Zealand</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="NZ" type="organization" xml:id="gcb2625-aff-0002"><orgName>Scion</orgName> <address><street>PO Box 29237</street> <city>Christchurch</city> <postCode>29237</postCode> <country>New Zealand</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="NZ" type="organization" xml:id="gcb2625-aff-0003"><orgName>NIWA</orgName> <address><street>Private Bag 14‐901</street> <city>Kilbirnie</city> <city>Wellington</city> <country>New Zealand</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0001"><fc>CenW</fc></keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0002">climate change</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0003"><fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> concentration</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0004">forest</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0005">growth</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0006">modelling</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0007"><i><fc>P</fc>inus radiata</i></keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2625-kwd-0008">temperature</keyword></keywordGroup><fundingInfo><fundingAgency>New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry</fundingAgency></fundingInfo><supportingInformation><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supporting" mimeType="application/msword" href="urn-x:wiley:13541013:media:gcb2625:gcb2625-sup-0001-TableS1"></mediaResource><caption><b>Table S1.</b> CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations used for simulations of current (1990) and future <i>P. radiata</i> productivity. For each of the 30 year simulations centred on 1990, 2040 and 2090, the initial, mean and annual increase in CO<sub>2</sub> concentration are shown. Data obtained from Prentice <i>et al</i>. (2001).</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:id="gcb2625-abs-0001"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p>The physiologically based growth model <fc>CenW</fc> was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of <i><fc>P</fc>inus radiata</i> forests to climate change in <fc>N</fc>ew <fc>Z</fc>ealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 <fc>GCM</fc>s forced by the <fc>SRES</fc> B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub>, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where <i><fc>P</fc>. radiata</i> is currently grown, and across the full suite of <fc>GCM</fc>s and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> and 1.5% with increasing <fc><fr>CO</fr></fc><sub>2</sub> concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Miko U. F.</namePart><namePart type="family">Kirschbaum</namePart><affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</affiliation><description>Correspondence: Miko U.F. Kirschbaum, tel. + 64 6 353 4902, fax + 64 6 353 4801, e‐mail: </description><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Michael S.</namePart><namePart type="family">Watt</namePart><affiliation>Scion, PO Box 29237, 29237, Christchurch, New Zealand</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Andrew</namePart><namePart type="family">Tait</namePart><affiliation>NIWA, Private Bag 14‐901, KilbirnieWellington, New Zealand</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Anne‐Gaelle E.</namePart><namePart type="family">Ausseil</namePart><affiliation>Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2012-04</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2011-12-13</dateCreated><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2011-10-31</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2011-11-06</dateValid><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2012</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType></physicalDescription><abstract>The physiologically based growth model CenW was used to simulate wood‐productivity responses of Pinus radiata forests to climate change in New Zealand. The model was tested under current climatic conditions against a comprehensive set of observations from growth plots located throughout the country. Climate change simulations were based on monthly climate change fields of 12 GCMs forced by the SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2040 and 2090. Simulations used either constant or increasing CO2 concentrations corresponding to the different emission scenarios. With constant CO2, there were only slight growth responses to climate change across the country as a whole. More specifically, there were slight growth reductions in the warmer north but gains in the cooler south, especially at higher altitudes. For sites where P. radiata is currently grown, and across the full suite of GCMs and emission scenarios, changes in wood productivity averaged +3% for both 2040 and 2090. When increasing CO2 concentration was also included, responses of wood productivity were generally positive, with average increases of 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090. These responses varied regionally, ranging from relatively minor changes in the north of the country to very significant increases in the south, where the beneficial effect of increasing CO2 combined with the beneficial effect of increasing temperatures. These relatively large responses to CO2 depend on maintenance of the current adequate fertility levels in most commercial plantations. Productivity enhancements came at the expense of some soil‐carbon losses. Average losses for the country were simulated to average 3.5% under constant CO2 and 1.5% with increasing CO2 concentration. Again, there were regional differences, with larger losses for regions with lesser growth enhancements, and lesser reductions in regions where greater productivity enhancements could partly balance the effect of faster decomposition activity.</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Table S1. CO2 concentrations used for simulations of current (1990) and future P. radiata productivity. For each of the 30 year simulations centred on 1990, 2040 and 2090, the initial, mean and annual increase in CO2 concentration are shown. Data obtained from Prentice et al. (2001).</note><note type="funding">New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry</note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>CenW</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>CO2 concentration</topic><topic>forest</topic><topic>growth</topic><topic>modelling</topic><topic>Pinus radiata</topic><topic>temperature</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Global Change Biology</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Glob Change Biol</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Primary Research Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">1354-1013</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">GCB</identifier><part><date>2012</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>18</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>4</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1342</start><end>1356</end><total>15</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02625.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">GCB2625</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><enrichments><json:item><type>multicat</type><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/6E9347398A79D70E395824A82D125973DF9689D2/enrichments/multicat</uri></json:item></enrichments><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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