Poissonian and negative binomial modelling of earthquake time series in the Aegean area
Identifieur interne : 000386 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000385; suivant : 000387Poissonian and negative binomial modelling of earthquake time series in the Aegean area
Auteurs : Demetrios D. Dionysiou [Grèce] ; Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos [Grèce]Source :
- Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors [ 0031-9201 ] ; 1992.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- topic : Séisme.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adequate description, Aegean area, Aegean earthquakes, Aegean mainshocks, Aegean region, Aftershock, Appropriate length, Arbitrary selection, Contradictory results, Crucial importance, Data sets, Earthquake, Earthquake catalogues, Earthquake occurrence, Earthquake occurrences, Earthquake prediction, Earthquake sample, Earthquake time, Earthquake time modelling, Earthquake time series, Force academy, Foreshock activity, Geophys, Great alaska earthquake, Largest events, Lower magnitude, Lower magnitude threshold, Magnitude class, Magnitude range, Magnitude ranges, Mainshock, Mainshock occurrence, Mainshocks, Manual compilation, Maximum magnitude, Microearthquake swarms, Mmax, Modelling, Negative binomial, Negative binomial distribution, Negative binomial model, Negative binomial modelling, Null hypothesis, Objective criteria, Other workers, Papadopoulos, Papazachos, Pascal, Pascal distribution, Pascal distributions, Pascal model, Poisson, Poisson behaviour, Poisson distribution, Poisson model, Poisson process, Poissonian, Present study, Probability density function, Return period, Schenkov, Seismic, Seismic activity, Seismic energy release, Seismogenic, Seismogenic sources, Seismol, Seismotectonic, Seismotectonic segment, Seismotectonic segments, Several magnitude classes, Shallow earthquakes, Significance levels, Simple poisson model, Southern california, Standard aftershock sequences, Stationary poisson process, Statistical analysis, Statistical models, Stochastic modelling, Stochastic models, Time distribution, Time interval, Time intervals, Time series, Time unit, Whole aegean area.
- Teeft :
- Adequate description, Aegean area, Aegean earthquakes, Aegean mainshocks, Aegean region, Aftershock, Appropriate length, Arbitrary selection, Contradictory results, Crucial importance, Data sets, Earthquake, Earthquake catalogues, Earthquake occurrence, Earthquake occurrences, Earthquake prediction, Earthquake sample, Earthquake time, Earthquake time modelling, Earthquake time series, Force academy, Foreshock activity, Geophys, Great alaska earthquake, Largest events, Lower magnitude, Lower magnitude threshold, Magnitude class, Magnitude range, Magnitude ranges, Mainshock, Mainshock occurrence, Mainshocks, Manual compilation, Maximum magnitude, Microearthquake swarms, Mmax, Modelling, Negative binomial, Negative binomial distribution, Negative binomial model, Negative binomial modelling, Null hypothesis, Objective criteria, Other workers, Papadopoulos, Papazachos, Pascal, Pascal distribution, Pascal distributions, Pascal model, Poisson, Poisson behaviour, Poisson distribution, Poisson model, Poisson process, Poissonian, Present study, Probability density function, Return period, Schenkov, Seismic, Seismic activity, Seismic energy release, Seismogenic, Seismogenic sources, Seismol, Seismotectonic, Seismotectonic segment, Seismotectonic segments, Several magnitude classes, Shallow earthquakes, Significance levels, Simple poisson model, Southern california, Standard aftershock sequences, Stationary poisson process, Statistical analysis, Statistical models, Stochastic modelling, Stochastic models, Time distribution, Time interval, Time intervals, Time series, Time unit, Whole aegean area.
Abstract
Abstract: The time distribution of mainshocks listed in 25 data sets, covering several magnitude classes, time intervals and seismotectonic segments of the Aegean area, has been tested against the Poisson and negative binomial (Pascal) theoretical models. In each χ2 test we make the null hypothesis of fit by a Poisson or Pascal distribution at the 5% and 1% significance levels. In each test the counting interval is non-arbitrarily selected as equal to the mean return period, Tm, of earthquakes of magnitude equal to or larger than the minimum magnitude in the earthquake sample. Values of Tm have been calculated from magnitude-frequency relationships determined by linear regression analysis. Twenty-two earthquake data sets are successfully modelled by the Poisson process at both the 5% and 1% levels. In contrast, only six sets are successfully modelled by the Pascal distribution. The results clearly indicate that the occurrence of earthquake mainshocks in the Aegean is stationary and random with respect to time regardless of the segment, time interval and magnitude class considered. A short review of earlier similar studies shows that contradictory results were obtained, which may be the result of several methodological problems. The most important problem seems to be the arbitrary selection of counting intervals when tests are performed. The degree of crustal heterogeneity, which varies from place to place, may provide a physical basis for explanation of earthquake time modelling and for the contradictions in earlier results.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/0031-9201(92)90073-5
Affiliations:
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type="ISSN">0031-9201</idno></series><idno type="istex">A2005F90240B371BC6BF31AC9DF6BED74BAECDF4</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1016/0031-9201(92)90073-5</idno><idno type="PII">0031-9201(92)90073-5</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0031-9201</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adequate description</term><term>Aegean area</term><term>Aegean earthquakes</term><term>Aegean mainshocks</term><term>Aegean region</term><term>Aftershock</term><term>Appropriate length</term><term>Arbitrary selection</term><term>Contradictory results</term><term>Crucial importance</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Earthquake</term><term>Earthquake catalogues</term><term>Earthquake occurrence</term><term>Earthquake occurrences</term><term>Earthquake prediction</term><term>Earthquake sample</term><term>Earthquake time</term><term>Earthquake time modelling</term><term>Earthquake time series</term><term>Force academy</term><term>Foreshock activity</term><term>Geophys</term><term>Great alaska earthquake</term><term>Largest events</term><term>Lower magnitude</term><term>Lower magnitude threshold</term><term>Magnitude class</term><term>Magnitude range</term><term>Magnitude ranges</term><term>Mainshock</term><term>Mainshock occurrence</term><term>Mainshocks</term><term>Manual compilation</term><term>Maximum magnitude</term><term>Microearthquake swarms</term><term>Mmax</term><term>Modelling</term><term>Negative binomial</term><term>Negative binomial distribution</term><term>Negative binomial model</term><term>Negative binomial modelling</term><term>Null hypothesis</term><term>Objective criteria</term><term>Other workers</term><term>Papadopoulos</term><term>Papazachos</term><term>Pascal</term><term>Pascal distribution</term><term>Pascal distributions</term><term>Pascal model</term><term>Poisson</term><term>Poisson behaviour</term><term>Poisson distribution</term><term>Poisson model</term><term>Poisson process</term><term>Poissonian</term><term>Present study</term><term>Probability density function</term><term>Return period</term><term>Schenkov</term><term>Seismic</term><term>Seismic activity</term><term>Seismic energy release</term><term>Seismogenic</term><term>Seismogenic sources</term><term>Seismol</term><term>Seismotectonic</term><term>Seismotectonic segment</term><term>Seismotectonic segments</term><term>Several magnitude classes</term><term>Shallow earthquakes</term><term>Significance levels</term><term>Simple poisson model</term><term>Southern california</term><term>Standard aftershock sequences</term><term>Stationary poisson process</term><term>Statistical analysis</term><term>Statistical models</term><term>Stochastic modelling</term><term>Stochastic models</term><term>Time distribution</term><term>Time interval</term><term>Time intervals</term><term>Time series</term><term>Time unit</term><term>Whole aegean area</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Adequate description</term><term>Aegean area</term><term>Aegean earthquakes</term><term>Aegean mainshocks</term><term>Aegean region</term><term>Aftershock</term><term>Appropriate length</term><term>Arbitrary selection</term><term>Contradictory results</term><term>Crucial importance</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Earthquake</term><term>Earthquake catalogues</term><term>Earthquake occurrence</term><term>Earthquake occurrences</term><term>Earthquake prediction</term><term>Earthquake sample</term><term>Earthquake time</term><term>Earthquake time modelling</term><term>Earthquake time series</term><term>Force academy</term><term>Foreshock activity</term><term>Geophys</term><term>Great alaska earthquake</term><term>Largest events</term><term>Lower magnitude</term><term>Lower magnitude threshold</term><term>Magnitude class</term><term>Magnitude range</term><term>Magnitude ranges</term><term>Mainshock</term><term>Mainshock occurrence</term><term>Mainshocks</term><term>Manual compilation</term><term>Maximum magnitude</term><term>Microearthquake swarms</term><term>Mmax</term><term>Modelling</term><term>Negative binomial</term><term>Negative binomial distribution</term><term>Negative binomial model</term><term>Negative binomial modelling</term><term>Null hypothesis</term><term>Objective criteria</term><term>Other workers</term><term>Papadopoulos</term><term>Papazachos</term><term>Pascal</term><term>Pascal distribution</term><term>Pascal distributions</term><term>Pascal model</term><term>Poisson</term><term>Poisson behaviour</term><term>Poisson distribution</term><term>Poisson model</term><term>Poisson process</term><term>Poissonian</term><term>Present study</term><term>Probability density function</term><term>Return period</term><term>Schenkov</term><term>Seismic</term><term>Seismic activity</term><term>Seismic energy release</term><term>Seismogenic</term><term>Seismogenic sources</term><term>Seismol</term><term>Seismotectonic</term><term>Seismotectonic segment</term><term>Seismotectonic segments</term><term>Several magnitude classes</term><term>Shallow earthquakes</term><term>Significance levels</term><term>Simple poisson model</term><term>Southern california</term><term>Standard aftershock sequences</term><term>Stationary poisson process</term><term>Statistical analysis</term><term>Statistical models</term><term>Stochastic modelling</term><term>Stochastic models</term><term>Time distribution</term><term>Time interval</term><term>Time intervals</term><term>Time series</term><term>Time unit</term><term>Whole aegean area</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Séisme</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: The time distribution of mainshocks listed in 25 data sets, covering several magnitude classes, time intervals and seismotectonic segments of the Aegean area, has been tested against the Poisson and negative binomial (Pascal) theoretical models. In each χ2 test we make the null hypothesis of fit by a Poisson or Pascal distribution at the 5% and 1% significance levels. In each test the counting interval is non-arbitrarily selected as equal to the mean return period, Tm, of earthquakes of magnitude equal to or larger than the minimum magnitude in the earthquake sample. Values of Tm have been calculated from magnitude-frequency relationships determined by linear regression analysis. Twenty-two earthquake data sets are successfully modelled by the Poisson process at both the 5% and 1% levels. In contrast, only six sets are successfully modelled by the Pascal distribution. The results clearly indicate that the occurrence of earthquake mainshocks in the Aegean is stationary and random with respect to time regardless of the segment, time interval and magnitude class considered. A short review of earlier similar studies shows that contradictory results were obtained, which may be the result of several methodological problems. The most important problem seems to be the arbitrary selection of counting intervals when tests are performed. The degree of crustal heterogeneity, which varies from place to place, may provide a physical basis for explanation of earthquake time modelling and for the contradictions in earlier results.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Grèce</li></country><region><li>Attique (région)</li></region><settlement><li>Athènes</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Grèce"><noRegion><name sortKey="Dionysiou, Demetrios D" sort="Dionysiou, Demetrios D" uniqKey="Dionysiou D" first="Demetrios D." last="Dionysiou">Demetrios D. Dionysiou</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A" sort="Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A" uniqKey="Papadopoulos G" first="Gerassimos A." last="Papadopoulos">Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos</name><name sortKey="Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A" sort="Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A" uniqKey="Papadopoulos G" first="Gerassimos A." last="Papadopoulos">Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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