Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates
Identifieur interne : 001650 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001649; suivant : 001651Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates
Auteurs : Dominik R. Bach ; Raymond J. DolanSource :
- Nature Reviews Neuroscience [ 1471-003X ] ; 2012-08.
Abstract
How we estimate uncertainty is important in decision neuroscience and has wide-ranging implications in basic and clinical neuroscience, from computational models of optimality to ideas on psychopathological disorders including anxiety, depression and schizophrenia. Empirical research in neuroscience, which has been based on divergent theoretical assumptions, has focused on the fundamental question of how uncertainty is encoded in the brain and how it influences behaviour. Here, we integrate several theoretical concepts about uncertainty into a decision-making framework. We conclude that the currently available evidence indicates that distinct neural encoding (including summary statistic-type representations) of uncertainty occurs in distinct neural systems.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nrn3289
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He holds numerous research awards, including a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award.</affiliation><affiliation>Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, 12 Queen Square, London WC1N 3BG, UK.</affiliation><affiliation>Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Luisenstraße 56, 10099 Berlin, Germany.</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Nature Reviews Neuroscience</title><idno type="pISSN">1471-003X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1471-0048</idno><imprint><publisher>Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. 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All Rights Reserved.</cpn></cpg><subject code="130" id="130" path="/130" priority="0" type="npg.subjects" version="1.0"></subject><subject code="116" id="116" path="/116" priority="0" type="npg.subjects" version="1.0"></subject><subject code="370" id="370" path="/370" priority="0" type="npg.subjects" version="1.0"></subject><subject code="110" id="110" path="/110" priority="0" type="npg.subjects" version="1.0"></subject><doi>10.1038/nrn3289</doi></pubfm><fm><atl display="show">Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates</atl><aug><cau><fnm>Dominik R.</fnm><snm>Bach</snm><inits>D R</inits><orf rid="a1"></orf><orf rid="a2"></orf><corf rid="c1"></corf><bio><p>Dominik R. Bach received his M.D. and his Dr.Med. from Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany, and his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in neuropsychology from Technische Universität, Berlin, Germany. He is a trained psychiatrist, and is currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at University College London (UCL), UK, and a visiting researcher at the Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany. His research is mainly focused on the neuroscience of defensive emotions, in particular under conditions of uncertain threat.</p></bio></cau><au><fnm>Raymond J.</fnm><snm>Dolan</snm><inits>R J</inits><orf rid="a1"></orf><orf rid="a2"></orf><bio><p>Raymond J. Dolan received his M.D. from the National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland. He is a practicing psychiatrist and holds the position of Mary Kinross Professor of Neuropsychiatry at University College London (UCL), UK. He is also a visiting Einstein Fellow at the Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany. His is the Director of the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at UCL. His research is mainly focused on emotion, decision-making and psychopathology. He holds numerous research awards, including a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award.</p></bio></au><aff><oid id="a1"></oid><org>Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London</org>, <street>12 Queen Square</street>, <cty>London</cty><zip>WC1N 3BG</zip>, <cny>UK</cny>.</aff><aff><oid id="a2"></oid><org>Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin</org>, <street>Luisenstraße 56</street>, <zip>10099</zip><cty>Berlin</cty>, <cny>Germany</cny>.</aff><caff><coid id="c1"></coid><email>d.bach@ucl.ac.uk</email></caff></aug><hst><pubdate day="11" month="07" type="aop" year="2012"></pubdate></hst><execsumm><p><list id="l1" type="bullet"><li>Uncertainty or imprecision is present in all neural computations. It can arise from noise or incomplete information sensed from the environment, and from imprecision and noise in neural circuits.</li><li>An estimate of such uncertainty can improve behavioural performance.</li><li>Of the many variables we can be uncertain about, those in sensory perception and in economic outcome prediction have received the most empirical interest.</li><li>Sensory and outcome uncertainty clearly influence behaviour, and there is evidence to suggest that rule uncertainty also influences behaviour. These influences on behaviour are often close to what optimal algorithms predict.</li><li>Sensory uncertainty is represented by shallow slopes of firing rates in a neural evidence integrator. BOLD (blood oxygenation-dependent) functional MRI responses in several brain regions can be attributed to sensory uncertainty, but the neural code for sensory uncertainty is unknown.</li><li>Outcome uncertainty influences prediction error signals generated in the midbrain, and is encoded in the firing rates of orbitofrontal cortex neurons, and possibly in the rate of change in firing of dopaminergic midbrain neurons.</li><li>BOLD studies of outcome uncertainty await replication to confirm the spatial distribution of outcome uncertainty encoding in the brain.</li></list></p></execsumm><websumm type="regular">Decision making is influenced by uncertainty, which arises from internal and external noise. A fundamental question is how uncertainty is encoded in the brain and how it influences behaviour. In this Review, Bach and Dolan integrate several theoretical concepts about uncertainty into a hierarchical decision-making framework.</websumm><abs><p>How we estimate uncertainty is important in decision neuroscience and has wide-ranging implications in basic and clinical neuroscience, from computational models of optimality to ideas on psychopathological disorders including anxiety, depression and schizophrenia. Empirical research in neuroscience, which has been based on divergent theoretical assumptions, has focused on the fundamental question of how uncertainty is encoded in the brain and how it influences behaviour. Here, we integrate several theoretical concepts about uncertainty into a decision-making framework. We conclude that the currently available evidence indicates that distinct neural encoding (including summary statistic-type representations) of uncertainty occurs in distinct neural systems.</p></abs></fm></article></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="eng"><title>Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" lang="eng" contentType="CDATA"><title>Knowing how much you don't know: a neural organization of uncertainty estimates</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Dominik R.</namePart><namePart type="family">Bach</namePart><affiliation>Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, 12 Queen Square, London WC1N 3BG, UK.</affiliation><affiliation>Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Luisenstraße 56, 10099 Berlin, Germany.</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: d.bach@ucl.ac.uk</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role><description>Dominik R. Bach received his M.D. and his Dr.Med. from Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany, and his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in neuropsychology from Technische Universität, Berlin, Germany. He is a trained psychiatrist, and is currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at University College London (UCL), UK, and a visiting researcher at the Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany. 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