Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study
Identifieur interne : 000987 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000986; suivant : 000988Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study
Auteurs : Yuanyuan Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Zuqin Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Yao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qi Ying ; Cheng Long [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinmiao Fu [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology [ 0899-823X ] ; ????.
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. Here, Boltzmann function-based analyses reveal the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths: 3,260 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3187–3394) in China; 110 (95% CI, 109–112) in Hubei Province; 3,174 (95% CI, 3095–3270) outside Hubei; 2,550 (95% CI, 2494–2621) in Wuhan City; and 617 (95% CI, 607–632) outside Wuhan.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/ice.2020.101
PubMed: 32238216
PubMed Central: 7163192
Affiliations:
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University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences,<institution>Fujian Normal University</institution>,<city>Fuzhou City</city>,<state>Fujian Province</state>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yao, Wei" sort="Yao, Wei" uniqKey="Yao W" first="Wei" last="Yao">Wei Yao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a1">Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences,<institution>Fujian Normal University</institution>,<city>Fuzhou City</city>,<state>Fujian Province</state>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ying, Qi" sort="Ying, Qi" uniqKey="Ying Q" first="Qi" last="Ying">Qi Ying</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="a2">Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,<institution>Texas A&M University</institution>,<city>College Station</city>,<state>Texas</state></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Long, Cheng" sort="Long, Cheng" uniqKey="Long C" first="Cheng" last="Long">Cheng Long</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a3">Department of Orthopaedics,<institution>Sichuan University West China Hospital</institution>,<city>Chengdu City</city>,<state>Sichuan Province</state>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Xinmiao" sort="Fu, Xinmiao" uniqKey="Fu X" first="Xinmiao" last="Fu">Xinmiao Fu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a1">Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences,<institution>Fujian Normal University</institution>,<city>Fuzhou City</city>,<state>Fujian Province</state>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology</title><idno type="ISSN">0899-823X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1559-6834</idno><imprint><date when="????">????</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ICE</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0899-823X</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1559-6834</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Cambridge University Press</publisher-name><publisher-loc>New York, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32238216</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7163192</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0899823X20001014</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1017/ice.2020.101</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Concise Communication</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Gao</surname><given-names>Yuanyuan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Zuqin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yao</surname><given-names>Wei</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ying</surname><given-names>Qi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Long</surname><given-names>Cheng</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-6904</contrib-id><name><surname>Fu</surname><given-names>Xinmiao</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="a1"><label>1</label>Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences,<institution>Fujian Normal University</institution>,<city>Fuzhou City</city>,<state>Fujian Province</state>,<country>China</country></aff><aff id="a2"><label>2</label>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,<institution>Texas A&M University</institution>,<city>College Station</city>,<state>Texas</state></aff><aff id="a3"><label>3</label>Department of Orthopaedics,<institution>Sichuan University West China Hospital</institution>,<city>Chengdu City</city>,<state>Sichuan Province</state>,<country>China</country></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><bold>Authors for correspondence:</bold> Professor Xinmiao Fu, Email: <email>xmfu@fjnu.edu.cn</email> and Dr Cheng Long, Email: <email>longchenghx@126.com</email></corresp><fn id="afn1" fn-type="other"><label>a</label><p>Authors of equal contribution.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub"><day>02</day><month>4</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><fpage>1</fpage><lpage>3</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>07</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>21</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>24</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (<uri xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</uri>), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:href="S0899823X20001014a.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="normal"><p>The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. Here, Boltzmann function-based analyses reveal the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths: 3,260 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3187–3394) in China; 110 (95% CI, 109–112) in Hubei Province; 3,174 (95% CI, 3095–3270) outside Hubei; 2,550 (95% CI, 2494–2621) in Wuhan City; and 617 (95% CI, 607–632) outside Wuhan.</p></abstract><counts><fig-count count="1"></fig-count><table-count count="1"></table-count><ref-count count="10"></ref-count><page-count count="3"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Ying, Qi" sort="Ying, Qi" uniqKey="Ying Q" first="Qi" last="Ying">Qi Ying</name></noCountry><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Gao, Yuanyuan" sort="Gao, Yuanyuan" uniqKey="Gao Y" first="Yuanyuan" last="Gao">Yuanyuan Gao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Fu, Xinmiao" sort="Fu, Xinmiao" uniqKey="Fu X" first="Xinmiao" last="Fu">Xinmiao Fu</name><name sortKey="Long, Cheng" sort="Long, Cheng" uniqKey="Long C" first="Cheng" last="Long">Cheng Long</name><name sortKey="Yao, Wei" sort="Yao, Wei" uniqKey="Yao W" first="Wei" last="Yao">Wei Yao</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Zuqin" sort="Zhang, Zuqin" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zuqin" last="Zhang">Zuqin Zhang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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