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Leveraging a Bayesian Network approach to model and analyze supplier vulnerability to severe weather risk: A case study of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria

Identifieur interne : 001098 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001097; suivant : 001099

Leveraging a Bayesian Network approach to model and analyze supplier vulnerability to severe weather risk: A case study of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria

Auteurs : Jeanne-Marie Lawrence [États-Unis] ; Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain [États-Unis] ; Raed Jaradat [États-Unis] ; Michael Hamilton [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : PMC:7187851

Abstract

The United States government has identified the health care sector as part of the critical infrastructure for homeland security to protect citizens against health risks arising from terrorism, natural disasters, and epidemics. Citizens also have expectations about the role that health care plays in enjoying a good quality of life, by providing response systems to handle emergencies and other illness situations adequately. Among the systems required to support desired performance levels is a robust and resilient pharmaceutical supply chain that is free of disruption. Shortages of drugs place undue pressure on healthcare providers to devise alternative approaches to administer patient care. With climate change expected to result in increasingly severe weather patterns in the future, it is critical that logistics engineers understand the impact that a catastrophic weather event could have on supply chain disruption to facilitate the design of supply systems that are robust and resilient. This study investigates the main causal and intermediate events that led to risk propagation in, and disruption of, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria. A causality Bayesian model is developed to depict linkages between risk events and quantify the associated cumulative risk. The quantification is further examined through different advanced techniques such as predictive inference reasoning and sensitivity analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses suggests that port resilience is imperative to pharmaceutical supply chain performance in the case of Puerto Rico.


Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101607
PubMed: 32346504
PubMed Central: 7187851

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PMC:7187851

Le document en format XML

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</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article">
<pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Disaster Risk Reduct</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int J Disaster Risk Reduct</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2212-4209</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Published by Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32346504</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7187851</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S2212-4209(19)31184-7</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101607</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">101607</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Leveraging a Bayesian Network approach to model and analyze supplier vulnerability to severe weather risk: A case study of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au1">
<name>
<surname>Lawrence</surname>
<given-names>Jeanne-Marie</given-names>
</name>
<email>jel487@msstate.edu</email>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au2">
<name>
<surname>Ibne Hossain</surname>
<given-names>Niamat Ullah</given-names>
</name>
<email>ni78@msstate.edu</email>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au3">
<name>
<surname>Jaradat</surname>
<given-names>Raed</given-names>
</name>
<email>jaradat@ise.msstate.edu</email>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au4">
<name>
<surname>Hamilton</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="aff1">
<label>a</label>
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Mississippi State University, PO Box 9542, Mississippi State, 39762, USA</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>b</label>
Institute for Systems Engineering Research, Mississippi State University, USA</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1">
<label></label>
Corresponding author.
<email>jaradat@ise.msstate.edu</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release">
<day>28</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<elocation-id>101607</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>30</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2019</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd">
<day>6</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>8</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder></copyright-holder>
<license>
<license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="abs0010">
<p>The United States government has identified the health care sector as part of the critical infrastructure for homeland security to protect citizens against health risks arising from terrorism, natural disasters, and epidemics. Citizens also have expectations about the role that health care plays in enjoying a good quality of life, by providing response systems to handle emergencies and other illness situations adequately. Among the systems required to support desired performance levels is a robust and resilient pharmaceutical supply chain that is free of disruption. Shortages of drugs place undue pressure on healthcare providers to devise alternative approaches to administer patient care. With climate change expected to result in increasingly severe weather patterns in the future, it is critical that logistics engineers understand the impact that a catastrophic weather event could have on supply chain disruption to facilitate the design of supply systems that are robust and resilient. This study investigates the main causal and intermediate events that led to risk propagation in, and disruption of, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria. A causality Bayesian model is developed to depict linkages between risk events and quantify the associated cumulative risk. The quantification is further examined through different advanced techniques such as predictive inference reasoning and sensitivity analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses suggests that port resilience is imperative to pharmaceutical supply chain performance in the case of Puerto Rico.</p>
</abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="graphical" id="abs0015">
<title>Graphical abstract</title>
<p>
<fig id="undfig1" position="anchor">
<alt-text id="alttext0010">Image 1</alt-text>
<graphic xlink:href="fx1_lrg"></graphic>
</fig>
</p>
</abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0020">
<title>Highlights</title>
<p>
<list list-type="simple" id="ulist0010">
<list-item id="u0010">
<label></label>
<p id="p0010">The potential factors for pharmaceutical supply chain disruption under severe weather conditions are identified.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0015">
<label></label>
<p id="p0015">Bayesian Network (BN) model to quantify the potential risk of supply disruption in a hospital's inbound pharmaceutical supply chain from exposure to a Category IV is presented.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0020">
<label></label>
<p id="p0020">To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, advanced analysis techniques are performed.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0025">
<label></label>
<p id="p0025">The efficacy of BN as an effective risk assesment tool is presented.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group id="kwrds0010">
<title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Pharmaceutical supply chain</kwd>
<kwd>Severe weather risk</kwd>
<kwd>Bayesian network</kwd>
<kwd>Resilience</kwd>
<kwd>Supply chain risk</kwd>
<kwd>Puerto Rico</kwd>
<kwd>Hurricane</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Lawrence, Jeanne Marie" sort="Lawrence, Jeanne Marie" uniqKey="Lawrence J" first="Jeanne-Marie" last="Lawrence">Jeanne-Marie Lawrence</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Hamilton, Michael" sort="Hamilton, Michael" uniqKey="Hamilton M" first="Michael" last="Hamilton">Michael Hamilton</name>
<name sortKey="Ibne Hossain, Niamat Ullah" sort="Ibne Hossain, Niamat Ullah" uniqKey="Ibne Hossain N" first="Niamat Ullah" last="Ibne Hossain">Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain</name>
<name sortKey="Jaradat, Raed" sort="Jaradat, Raed" uniqKey="Jaradat R" first="Raed" last="Jaradat">Raed Jaradat</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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