Transient virulence of emerging pathogens
Identifieur interne : 001A85 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 001A84; suivant : 001A86Transient virulence of emerging pathogens
Auteurs : Benjamin M. Bolker [États-Unis] ; Arjun Nanda [États-Unis] ; Dharmini Shah [États-Unis]Source :
- Journal of the Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
Should emerging pathogens be unusually virulent? If so, why? Existing theories of virulence evolution based on a tradeoff between high transmission rates and long infectious periods imply that epidemic growth conditions will select for higher virulence, possibly leading to a transient peak in virulence near the beginning of an epidemic. This transient selection could lead to high virulence in emerging pathogens. Using a simple model of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of emerging pathogens, along with rough estimates of parameters for pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, West Nile virus and myxomatosis, we estimated the potential magnitude and timing of such transient virulence peaks. Pathogens that are moderately evolvable, highly transmissible, and highly virulent at equilibrium could briefly double their virulence during an epidemic; thus, epidemic-phase selection could contribute significantly to the virulence of emerging pathogens. In order to further assess the potential significance of this mechanism, we bring together data from the literature for the shapes of tradeoff curves for several pathogens (myxomatosis, HIV, and a parasite of Daphnia) and the level of genetic variation for virulence for one (myxomatosis). We discuss the need for better data on tradeoff curves and genetic variance in order to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios of virulence evolution.
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0384
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Bolker</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, PO Box 118525, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nanda, Arjun" sort="Nanda, Arjun" uniqKey="Nanda A" first="Arjun" last="Nanda">Arjun Nanda</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Food Science and Human Nutrition Department, PO Box 110370, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shah, Dharmini" sort="Shah, Dharmini" uniqKey="Shah D" first="Dharmini" last="Shah">Dharmini Shah</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Food Science and Human Nutrition Department, PO Box 110370, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Journal of the Royal Society Interface</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">J. R. Soc. Interface</title><idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno><idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno><imprint><publisher>The Royal Society</publisher><date type="published">2010</date><date type="e-published">2009</date><biblScope unit="vol">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">46</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="811">811</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="822">822</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Should emerging pathogens be unusually virulent? If so, why? Existing theories of virulence evolution based on a tradeoff between high transmission rates and long infectious periods imply that epidemic growth conditions will select for higher virulence, possibly leading to a transient peak in virulence near the beginning of an epidemic. This transient selection could lead to high virulence in emerging pathogens. Using a simple model of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of emerging pathogens, along with rough estimates of parameters for pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, West Nile virus and myxomatosis, we estimated the potential magnitude and timing of such transient virulence peaks. Pathogens that are moderately evolvable, highly transmissible, and highly virulent at equilibrium could briefly double their virulence during an epidemic; thus, epidemic-phase selection could contribute significantly to the virulence of emerging pathogens. In order to further assess the potential significance of this mechanism, we bring together data from the literature for the shapes of tradeoff curves for several pathogens (myxomatosis, HIV, and a parasite of Daphnia) and the level of genetic variation for virulence for one (myxomatosis). We discuss the need for better data on tradeoff curves and genetic variance in order to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios of virulence evolution.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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