Clustering model for transmission of the SARS virus: application to epidemic control and risk assessment.
Identifieur interne : 002687 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 002686; suivant : 002688Clustering model for transmission of the SARS virus: application to epidemic control and risk assessment.
Auteurs : Michael Small [Hong Kong] ; C K Tse [Hong Kong]Source :
- Physica A [ 0378-4371 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
We propose a new four state model for disease transmission and illustrate the model with data from the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. The critical feature of this model is that the community is modelled as a small-world network of interconnected nodes. Each node is linked to a fixed number of immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically remote nodes. Transmission can only propagate between linked nodes. This model exhibits two features typical of SARS transmission: geographically localized outbreaks and "super-spreaders". Neither of these features are evident in standard susceptible-infected-removed models of disease transmission. Our analysis indicates that "super-spreaders" may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant. Moreover, we find that nosocomial transmission in Hong Kong directly contributed to the severity of the outbreak and that by limiting individual exposure time to 3-5 days the extent of the SARS epidemic would have been minimal.
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.01.009
PubMed: 32288075
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The critical feature of this model is that the community is modelled as a small-world network of interconnected nodes. Each node is linked to a fixed number of immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically remote nodes. Transmission can only propagate between linked nodes. This model exhibits two features typical of SARS transmission: geographically localized outbreaks and "super-spreaders". Neither of these features are evident in standard susceptible-infected-removed models of disease transmission. Our analysis indicates that "super-spreaders" may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant. Moreover, we find that nosocomial transmission in Hong Kong directly contributed to the severity of the outbreak and that by limiting individual exposure time to 3-5 days the extent of the SARS epidemic would have been minimal.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32288075</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>18</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0378-4371</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>351</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2005</Year><Month>Jun</Month><Day>15</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Physica A</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Physica A</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Clustering model for transmission of the SARS virus: application to epidemic control and risk assessment.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>499-511</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.physa.2005.01.009</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We propose a new four state model for disease transmission and illustrate the model with data from the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. The critical feature of this model is that the community is modelled as a small-world network of interconnected nodes. Each node is linked to a fixed number of immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically remote nodes. Transmission can only propagate between linked nodes. This model exhibits two features typical of SARS transmission: geographically localized outbreaks and "super-spreaders". Neither of these features are evident in standard susceptible-infected-removed models of disease transmission. Our analysis indicates that "super-spreaders" may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant. Moreover, we find that nosocomial transmission in Hong Kong directly contributed to the severity of the outbreak and that by limiting individual exposure time to 3-5 days the extent of the SARS epidemic would have been minimal.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Small</LastName><ForeName>Michael</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tse</LastName><ForeName>C K</ForeName><Initials>CK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2005</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>26</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>Physica A</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9890571</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0378-4371</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Disease transmission</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiological methods</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Nonlinear dynamics</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Severe acute respiratory syndrome</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Small world networks</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2005</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2005</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32288075</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.physa.2005.01.009</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0378-4371(05)00030-0</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7126158</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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