Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.
Identifieur interne : 000421 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000420; suivant : 000422Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.
Auteurs : Giorgio Guzzetta [Italie] ; Piero Poletti [Italie] ; Marco Ajelli [Italie] ; Filippo Trentini [Italie] ; Valentina Marziano [Italie] ; Danilo Cereda [Italie] ; Marcello Tirani [Italie] ; Giulio Diurno [Italie] ; Annalisa Bodina [Italie] ; Antonio Barone [Italie] ; Lucia Crottogini [Italie] ; Maria Gramegna [Italie] ; Alessia Melegaro ; Stefano MerlerSource :
- Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : Italie.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Italy.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Notification.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Betacoronavirus, Coronavirus, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Pandemics.
Abstract
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
PubMed: 32234117
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Alessia Melegaro<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation>Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.</title><author><name sortKey="Guzzetta, Giorgio" sort="Guzzetta, Giorgio" uniqKey="Guzzetta G" first="Giorgio" last="Guzzetta">Giorgio Guzzetta</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletti, Piero" sort="Poletti, Piero" uniqKey="Poletti P" first="Piero" last="Poletti">Piero Poletti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli 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for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Melegaro, Alessia" sort="Melegaro, Alessia" uniqKey="Melegaro A" first="Alessia" last="Melegaro">Alessia Melegaro</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32234117</idno><idno type="pmid">32234117</idno><idno type="doi">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000421</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000421</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000421</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000421</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.</title><author><name sortKey="Guzzetta, Giorgio" sort="Guzzetta, Giorgio" uniqKey="Guzzetta G" first="Giorgio" last="Guzzetta">Giorgio Guzzetta</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletti, Piero" sort="Poletti, Piero" uniqKey="Poletti P" first="Piero" last="Poletti">Piero Poletti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli M" first="Marco" last="Ajelli">Marco Ajelli</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Trentini, Filippo" sort="Trentini, Filippo" uniqKey="Trentini F" first="Filippo" last="Trentini">Filippo Trentini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marziano, Valentina" sort="Marziano, Valentina" uniqKey="Marziano V" first="Valentina" last="Marziano">Valentina Marziano</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cereda, Danilo" sort="Cereda, Danilo" uniqKey="Cereda D" first="Danilo" last="Cereda">Danilo Cereda</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tirani, Marcello" sort="Tirani, Marcello" uniqKey="Tirani M" first="Marcello" last="Tirani">Marcello Tirani</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Health Protection Agency of Pavia, Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Pavia, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Health Protection Agency of Pavia, Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Pavia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Diurno, Giulio" sort="Diurno, Giulio" uniqKey="Diurno G" first="Giulio" last="Diurno">Giulio Diurno</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bodina, Annalisa" sort="Bodina, Annalisa" uniqKey="Bodina A" first="Annalisa" last="Bodina">Annalisa Bodina</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barone, Antonio" sort="Barone, Antonio" uniqKey="Barone A" first="Antonio" last="Barone">Antonio Barone</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Crottogini, Lucia" sort="Crottogini, Lucia" uniqKey="Crottogini L" first="Lucia" last="Crottogini">Lucia Crottogini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gramegna, Maria" sort="Gramegna, Maria" uniqKey="Gramegna M" first="Maria" last="Gramegna">Maria Gramegna</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Melegaro, Alessia" sort="Melegaro, Alessia" uniqKey="Melegaro A" first="Alessia" last="Melegaro">Alessia Melegaro</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</title><idno type="eISSN">1560-7917</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Notification (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Italy (epidemiology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Italie (épidémiologie)</term><term>Notification des maladies à déclaration obligatoire ()</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Italy</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Notification</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Italie</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Notification des maladies à déclaration obligatoire</term><term>Pandémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Italie</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32234117</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>10</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>10</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1560-7917</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>25</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Euro Surveill.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Guzzetta</LastName><ForeName>Giorgio</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poletti</LastName><ForeName>Piero</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ajelli</LastName><ForeName>Marco</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Trentini</LastName><ForeName>Filippo</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Marziano</LastName><ForeName>Valentina</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cereda</LastName><ForeName>Danilo</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tirani</LastName><ForeName>Marcello</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Health Protection Agency of Pavia, Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Pavia, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Diurno</LastName><ForeName>Giulio</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bodina</LastName><ForeName>Annalisa</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Barone</LastName><ForeName>Antonio</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Crottogini</LastName><ForeName>Lucia</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gramegna</LastName><ForeName>Maria</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lombardy Region, Directorate General for Health, UO Prevenzione, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Melegaro</LastName><ForeName>Alessia</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bocconi University, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Merler</LastName><ForeName>Stefano</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>These authors are joint senior authors and contributed equally to this work.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Sweden</Country><MedlineTA>Euro Surveill</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100887452</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1025-496X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017934" MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName 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MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Lombardy outbreak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">SARS-CoV-2</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">modelling</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32234117</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7118340</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Stat Med. 2004 Nov 30;23(22):3469-87</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15505892</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31995857</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>JAMA. 2020 Feb 24;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32091533</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 04;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32033064</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2008 Mar 25;5(3):e74</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18366252</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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