Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Identifieur interne : 000827 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000826; suivant : 000828Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Auteurs : Shi Zhao ; Qianyin Lin ; Jinjun Ran ; Salihu S. Musa ; Guangpu Yang ; Weiming Wang ; Yijun Lou ; Daozhou Gao ; Lin Yang ; Daihai He ; Maggie H. WangSource :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus (physiology), China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Epidemics, Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology), Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), SARS Virus (physiology), World Health Organization.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- physiology : Betacoronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, SARS Virus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Epidemics, Humans, Pandemics, World Health Organization.
Abstract
An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
PubMed: 32007643
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32007643Le document en format XML
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Electronic address: qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jimran@connect.hku.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S" last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. 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Electronic address: shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jimran@connect.hku.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S" last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: dzgao@shnu.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H" last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Betacoronavirus (physiology)</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>SARS Virus (physiology)</term><term>World Health Organization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>World Health Organization</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R<sub>0</sub>, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32007643</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>15</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>92</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>214-217</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)30053-9</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUNDS" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R<sub>0</sub>, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R<sub>0</sub> by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R<sub>0</sub> ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R<sub>0</sub>.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The mean estimate of R<sub>0</sub> for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhao</LastName><ForeName>Shi</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lin</LastName><ForeName>Qianyin</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ran</LastName><ForeName>Jinjun</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jimran@connect.hku.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Musa</LastName><ForeName>Salihu S</ForeName><Initials>SS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Guangpu</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Weiming</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lou</LastName><ForeName>Yijun</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gao</LastName><ForeName>Daozhou</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: dzgao@shnu.edu.cn.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Lin</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>He</LastName><ForeName>Daihai</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Maggie H</ForeName><Initials>MH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>30</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9610933</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1201-9712</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="Y">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D065207" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="N">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D045473" MajorTopicYN="N">SARS Virus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="N">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014944" MajorTopicYN="N">World Health Organization</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Basic reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Novel coronavirus 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