High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
Identifieur interne : 000321 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000320; suivant : 000322High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
Auteurs : Steven Sanche ; Yen Ting Lin ; Chonggang Xu ; Ethan Romero-Severson ; Nick Hengartner ; Ruian KeSource :
- Emerging infectious diseases [ 1080-6059 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
DOI: 10.3201/eid2607.200282
PubMed: 32255761
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Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R<sub>0</sub> value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32255761</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>07</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1080-6059</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>26</Volume><Issue>7</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Apr</Month><Day>07</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Emerging infectious diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Emerging Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3201/eid2607.200282</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R<sub>0</sub> value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sanche</LastName><ForeName>Steven</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lin</LastName><ForeName>Yen Ting</ForeName><Initials>YT</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Chonggang</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Romero-Severson</LastName><ForeName>Ethan</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hengartner</LastName><ForeName>Nick</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ke</LastName><ForeName>Ruian</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>07</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Emerg Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9508155</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1080-6040</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2019 novel coronavirus disease</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">China</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Wuhan</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">respiratory infections</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">transmission potential</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">viruses</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">zoonoses</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32255761</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3201/eid2607.200282</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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