Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
Identifieur interne : 001472 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001471; suivant : 001473Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
Auteurs : Luca Ferretti [Royaume-Uni] ; Chris Wymant [Royaume-Uni] ; Michelle Kendall [Royaume-Uni] ; Lele Zhao [Royaume-Uni] ; Anel Nurtay [Royaume-Uni] ; Lucie Abeler-Dörner [Royaume-Uni] ; Michael Parker [Royaume-Uni] ; David Bonsall [Royaume-Uni] ; Christophe Fraser [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Science (New York, N.y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines (‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6936
PubMed: 32234805
PubMed Central: 7164555
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contact tracing</title><author><name sortKey="Ferretti, Luca" sort="Ferretti, Luca" uniqKey="Ferretti L" first="Luca" last="Ferretti">Luca Ferretti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wymant, Chris" sort="Wymant, Chris" uniqKey="Wymant C" first="Chris" last="Wymant">Chris Wymant</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and 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Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32234805</idno><idno type="pmc">7164555</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164555</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7164555</idno><idno type="doi">10.1126/science.abb6936</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001472</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001472</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001472</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001472</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital
contact tracing</title><author><name sortKey="Ferretti, Luca" sort="Ferretti, Luca" uniqKey="Ferretti L" first="Luca" last="Ferretti">Luca Ferretti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wymant, Chris" sort="Wymant, Chris" uniqKey="Wymant C" first="Chris" last="Wymant">Chris Wymant</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kendall, Michelle" sort="Kendall, Michelle" uniqKey="Kendall M" first="Michelle" last="Kendall">Michelle Kendall</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Lele" sort="Zhao, Lele" uniqKey="Zhao L" first="Lele" last="Zhao">Lele Zhao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nurtay, Anel" sort="Nurtay, Anel" uniqKey="Nurtay A" first="Anel" last="Nurtay">Anel Nurtay</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Abeler Dorner, Lucie" sort="Abeler Dorner, Lucie" uniqKey="Abeler Dorner L" first="Lucie" last="Abeler-Dörner">Lucie Abeler-Dörner</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Parker, Michael" sort="Parker, Michael" uniqKey="Parker M" first="Michael" last="Parker">Michael Parker</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wellcome Centre for Ethics and the Humanities and Ethox Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellcome Centre for Ethics and the Humanities and Ethox Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bonsall, David" sort="Bonsall, David" uniqKey="Bonsall D" first="David" last="Bonsall">David Bonsall</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Oxford University NHS Trust, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University NHS Trust, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and
incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key
parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and
determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We
conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be
controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing
App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive
cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to
only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines
(‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements
for an intervention of this kind.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guan, W J" uniqKey="Guan W">W.-J. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ni, Z Y" uniqKey="Ni Z">Z.-Y. Ni</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Y" uniqKey="Hu Y">Y. Hu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, W H" uniqKey="Liang W">W.-H. Liang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ou, C Q" uniqKey="Ou C">C.-Q. Ou</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, J X" uniqKey="He J">J.-X. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, L" uniqKey="Liu L">L. Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shan, H" uniqKey="Shan H">H. Shan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lei, C L" uniqKey="Lei C">C.-L. Lei</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hui, D S C" uniqKey="Hui D">D. S. C. Hui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Du, B" uniqKey="Du B">B. Du</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, L J" uniqKey="Li L">L.-J. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Science</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Science</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">SCIENCE</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Science (New York, N.y.)</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0036-8075</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1095-9203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32234805</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7164555</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">abb6936</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1126/science.abb6936</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="legacy-article-type"><subject>R-Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="field"><subject>Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital
contact tracing</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7578-7301</contrib-id><name><surname>Ferretti</surname><given-names>Luca</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9847-8226</contrib-id><name><surname>Wymant</surname><given-names>Chris</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7344-7071</contrib-id><name><surname>Kendall</surname><given-names>Michelle</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2807-1914</contrib-id><name><surname>Zhao</surname><given-names>Lele</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7107-1656</contrib-id><name><surname>Nurtay</surname><given-names>Anel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3662-4192</contrib-id><name><surname>Abeler-Dörner</surname><given-names>Lucie</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Parker</surname><given-names>Michael</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2187-0550</contrib-id><name><surname>Bonsall</surname><given-names>David</given-names></name><xref ref-type="award" rid="award598662"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn2">†</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2399-9657</contrib-id><name><surname>Fraser</surname><given-names>Christophe</given-names></name><xref ref-type="award" rid="award598658"></xref><xref ref-type="award" rid="award598661"></xref><xref ref-type="award" rid="award598660"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn2">†</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">‡</xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>Wellcome Centre for Ethics and the Humanities and Ethox Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>Oxford University NHS Trust, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><fn id="afn1" fn-type="equal"><label>*</label><p>These authors contributed equally to this work.</p></fn><fn id="afn2" fn-type="equal"><label>†</label><p>These authors contributed equally to this work.</p></fn><corresp id="cor1"><label>‡</label>Corresponding author. Email: <email xlink:href="christophe.fraser@bdi.ox.ac.uk">christophe.fraser@bdi.ox.ac.uk</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>31</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><elocation-id>eabb6936</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>11</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement> Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive
licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S.
Government Works</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>AAAS</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><ali:license_ref specific-use="vor" start_date="2020-03-04">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ali:license_ref><license-p>This open access article is distributed under <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License
4.0 (CC BY)</ext-link>.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and
incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key
parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and
determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We
conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be
controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing
App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive
cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to
only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines
(‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements
for an intervention of this kind.</p></abstract><funding-group><award-group id="award598658"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="doi">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865</institution-id><institution>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>INV-003680</award-id></award-group><award-group id="award598661"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="doi">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865</institution-id><institution>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>OPP1175094</award-id></award-group><award-group id="award598662"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="doi">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865</institution-id><institution>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>INV-003680</award-id></award-group><award-group id="award598660"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="doi">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013372</institution-id><institution>Wellcome Trust Centre for Mitochondrial Research</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>ARTIC</award-id></award-group><award-group id="award603494"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution>Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>203132/Z/16/Z</award-id></award-group></funding-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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