Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics
Identifieur interne : 001277 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001276; suivant : 001278Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics
Auteurs : Eduardo Massad [Brésil, Royaume-Uni] ; Marcelo N. Burattini [Brésil] ; Luis F. Lopez [Brésil] ; Francisco A. B. Coutinho [Brésil]Source :
- Medical Hypotheses [ 0306-9877 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number,
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DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029
PubMed: 15893110
PubMed Central: 7116954
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics</title><author><name sortKey="Massad, Eduardo" sort="Massad, Eduardo" uniqKey="Massad E" first="Eduardo" last="Massad">Eduardo Massad</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, Marcelo N" sort="Burattini, Marcelo N" uniqKey="Burattini M" first="Marcelo N." last="Burattini">Marcelo N. Burattini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, Luis F" sort="Lopez, Luis F" uniqKey="Lopez L" first="Luis F." last="Lopez">Luis F. Lopez</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco A B" sort="Coutinho, Francisco A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco A. B." last="Coutinho">Francisco A. B. Coutinho</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">15893110</idno><idno type="pmc">7116954</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7116954</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7116954</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029</idno><date when="2005">2005</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001277</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001277</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001277</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001277</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics</title><author><name sortKey="Massad, Eduardo" sort="Massad, Eduardo" uniqKey="Massad E" first="Eduardo" last="Massad">Eduardo Massad</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, Marcelo N" sort="Burattini, Marcelo N" uniqKey="Burattini M" first="Marcelo N." last="Burattini">Marcelo N. Burattini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, Luis F" sort="Lopez, Luis F" uniqKey="Lopez L" first="Luis F." last="Lopez">Luis F. Lopez</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco A B" sort="Coutinho, Francisco A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco A. B." last="Coutinho">Francisco A. B. Coutinho</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Medical Hypotheses</title><idno type="ISSN">0306-9877</idno><idno type="eISSN">1532-2777</idno><imprint><date when="2005">2005</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><p>In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R M" uniqKey="Anderson R">R.M. Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Keyfitz, N" uniqKey="Keyfitz N">N. Keyfitz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Caswell, H" uniqKey="Caswell H">H. Caswell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Amaku, M" uniqKey="Amaku M">M. Amaku</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, F A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F">F.A.B. Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Azevedo, R S" uniqKey="Azevedo R">R.S. Azevedo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, L F" uniqKey="Lopez L">L.F. Lopez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, F A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F">F.A.B. Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, L F" uniqKey="Lopez L">L.F. Lopez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Azevedo Neto, R S" uniqKey="Azevedo Neto R">R.S. Azevedo-Neto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zanetta, D M T" uniqKey="Zanetta D">D.M.T. 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Ortega</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, F A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F">F.A.B. Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, L F" uniqKey="Lopez L">L.F. Lopez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, F A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F">F.A.B. Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, L F" uniqKey="Lopez L">L.F. Lopez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meltzer, M I" uniqKey="Meltzer M">M.I. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Med Hypotheses</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Med. Hypotheses</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Medical Hypotheses</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0306-9877</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1532-2777</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">15893110</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7116954</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0306-9877(05)00080-0</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Massad</surname><given-names>Eduardo</given-names></name><email>edmassad@usp.br</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Burattini</surname><given-names>Marcelo N.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lopez</surname><given-names>Luis F.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Coutinho</surname><given-names>Francisco A.B.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 11 30817717; fax: +55 11 30667382 <email>edmassad@usp.br</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>30</day><month>3</month><year>2005</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2005</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>3</month><year>2005</year></pub-date><volume>65</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>17</fpage><lpage>22</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>9</day><month>9</month><year>2004</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>16</day><month>9</month><year>2004</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2005</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><title>Summary</title><p>In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.</p></abstract></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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