Impact of quarantine on the 2003 SARS outbreak: A retrospective modeling study
Identifieur interne : 001217 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001216; suivant : 001218Impact of quarantine on the 2003 SARS outbreak: A retrospective modeling study
Auteurs : Ying-Hen Hsieh [Taïwan] ; Chwan-Chuan King [Taïwan] ; Cathy W. S Chen [Taïwan] ; Mei-Shang Ho [Taïwan] ; Sze-Bi Hsu [Taïwan] ; Yi-Chun Wu [Taïwan]Source :
- Journal of Theoretical Biology [ 0022-5193 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
During the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, traditional intervention measures such as quarantine and border control were found to be useful in containing the outbreak. We used laboratory verified SARS case data and the detailed quarantine data in Taiwan, where over 150,000 people were quarantined during the 2003 outbreak, to formulate a mathematical model which incorporates Level A quarantine (of potentially exposed contacts of suspected SARS patients) and Level B quarantine (of travelers arriving at borders from SARS affected areas) implemented in Taiwan during the outbreak. We obtain the average case fatality ratio and the daily quarantine rate for the Taiwan outbreak. Model simulations is utilized to show that Level A quarantine prevented approximately 461 additional SARS cases and 62 additional deaths, while the effect of Level B quarantine was comparatively minor, yielding only around 5% reduction of cases and deaths. The combined impact of the two levels of quarantine had reduced the case number and deaths by almost a half. The results demonstrate how modeling can be useful in qualitative evaluation of the impact of traditional intervention measures for newly emerging infectious diseases outbreak when there is inadequate information on the characteristics and clinical features of the new disease—measures which could become particularly important with the looming threat of global flu pandemic possibly caused by a novel mutating flu strain, including that of avian variety.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.015
PubMed: 17055533
PubMed Central: 7094157
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S Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, Mei Shang" sort="Ho, Mei Shang" uniqKey="Ho M" first="Mei-Shang" last="Ho">Mei-Shang Ho</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hsu, Sze Bi" sort="Hsu, Sze Bi" uniqKey="Hsu S" first="Sze-Bi" last="Hsu">Sze-Bi Hsu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Mathematics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Yi Chun" sort="Wu, Yi Chun" uniqKey="Wu Y" first="Yi-Chun" last="Wu">Yi-Chun Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17055533</idno><idno type="pmc">7094157</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094157</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7094157</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.015</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001217</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001217</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001217</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001217</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Impact of quarantine on the 2003 SARS outbreak: A retrospective modeling study</title><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="King, Chwan Chuan" sort="King, Chwan Chuan" uniqKey="King C" first="Chwan-Chuan" last="King">Chwan-Chuan King</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Cathy W S" sort="Chen, Cathy W S" uniqKey="Chen C" first="Cathy W. S" last="Chen">Cathy W. S Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, Mei Shang" sort="Ho, Mei Shang" uniqKey="Ho M" first="Mei-Shang" last="Ho">Mei-Shang Ho</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hsu, Sze Bi" sort="Hsu, Sze Bi" uniqKey="Hsu S" first="Sze-Bi" last="Hsu">Sze-Bi Hsu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Mathematics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Yi Chun" sort="Wu, Yi Chun" uniqKey="Wu Y" first="Yi-Chun" last="Wu">Yi-Chun Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Theoretical Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-5193</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-8541</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>During the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, traditional intervention measures such as quarantine and border control were found to be useful in containing the outbreak. We used laboratory verified SARS case data and the detailed quarantine data in Taiwan, where over 150,000 people were quarantined during the 2003 outbreak, to formulate a mathematical model which incorporates Level A quarantine (of potentially exposed contacts of suspected SARS patients) and Level B quarantine (of travelers arriving at borders from SARS affected areas) implemented in Taiwan during the outbreak. We obtain the average case fatality ratio and the daily quarantine rate for the Taiwan outbreak. Model simulations is utilized to show that Level A quarantine prevented approximately 461 additional SARS cases and 62 additional deaths, while the effect of Level B quarantine was comparatively minor, yielding only around 5% reduction of cases and deaths. The combined impact of the two levels of quarantine had reduced the case number and deaths by almost a half. The results demonstrate how modeling can be useful in qualitative evaluation of the impact of traditional intervention measures for newly emerging infectious diseases outbreak when there is inadequate information on the characteristics and clinical features of the new disease—measures which could become particularly important with the looming threat of global flu pandemic possibly caused by a novel mutating flu strain, including that of avian variety.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chau, P H" uniqKey="Chau P">P.H. Chau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yip, P S F" uniqKey="Yip P">P.S.F. Yip</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Day, T" uniqKey="Day T">T. Day</name></author><author><name sortKey="Park, A" uniqKey="Park A">A. Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Madras, N" uniqKey="Madras N">N. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Theor Biol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Theor. Biol</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Theoretical Biology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0022-5193</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1095-8541</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17055533</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7094157</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0022-5193(06)00422-X</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.015</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Impact of quarantine on the 2003 SARS outbreak: A retrospective modeling study</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname><given-names>Ying-Hen</given-names></name><email>hsieh@amath.nchu.edu.tw</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>King</surname><given-names>Chwan-Chuan</given-names></name><xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>Cathy W.S</given-names></name><xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ho</surname><given-names>Mei-Shang</given-names></name><xref rid="aff4" ref-type="aff">d</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hsu</surname><given-names>Sze-Bi</given-names></name><xref rid="aff5" ref-type="aff">e</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>Yi-Chun</given-names></name><xref rid="aff6" ref-type="aff">f</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>c</label>Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan</aff><aff id="aff4"><label>d</label>Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan</aff><aff id="aff5"><label>e</label>Department of Mathematics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan</aff><aff id="aff6"><label>f</label>Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei, Taiwan</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Tel./fax: +886 4 22853949. <email>hsieh@amath.nchu.edu.tw</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>16</day><month>9</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>21</day><month>2</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day><month>9</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>244</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>729</fpage><lpage>736</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>29</day><month>6</month><year>2006</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>8</day><month>9</month><year>2006</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>8</day><month>9</month><year>2006</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>During the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, traditional intervention measures such as quarantine and border control were found to be useful in containing the outbreak. We used laboratory verified SARS case data and the detailed quarantine data in Taiwan, where over 150,000 people were quarantined during the 2003 outbreak, to formulate a mathematical model which incorporates Level A quarantine (of potentially exposed contacts of suspected SARS patients) and Level B quarantine (of travelers arriving at borders from SARS affected areas) implemented in Taiwan during the outbreak. We obtain the average case fatality ratio and the daily quarantine rate for the Taiwan outbreak. Model simulations is utilized to show that Level A quarantine prevented approximately 461 additional SARS cases and 62 additional deaths, while the effect of Level B quarantine was comparatively minor, yielding only around 5% reduction of cases and deaths. The combined impact of the two levels of quarantine had reduced the case number and deaths by almost a half. The results demonstrate how modeling can be useful in qualitative evaluation of the impact of traditional intervention measures for newly emerging infectious diseases outbreak when there is inadequate information on the characteristics and clinical features of the new disease—measures which could become particularly important with the looming threat of global flu pandemic possibly caused by a novel mutating flu strain, including that of avian variety.</p></abstract><kwd-group><title>Keywords</title><kwd>SARS</kwd><kwd>Emerging infectious diseases</kwd><kwd>Quarantine</kwd><kwd>Intervention</kwd><kwd>Discrete time compartmental model</kwd><kwd>Taiwan</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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