Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Identifieur interne : 001089 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001088; suivant : 001090Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Auteurs : Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qianyin Lin [États-Unis] ; Jinjun Ran [République populaire de Chine] ; Salihu S. Musa [République populaire de Chine] ; Guangpu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou [République populaire de Chine] ; Daozhou Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine] ; Maggie H. Wang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06. We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method. We estimated that the mean Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
PubMed: 32007643
PubMed Central: 7110798
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Musa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32007643</idno><idno type="pmc">7110798</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7110798</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7110798</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001089</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001089</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001089</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001089</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak</title><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A. 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Tsang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China" uniqKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China">Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, S S" uniqKey="Musa S">S.S. Musa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, H" uniqKey="Fu H">H. Fu</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Qin, J" uniqKey="Qin J">J. Qin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int. J. Infect. Dis</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1201-9712</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1878-3511</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32007643</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7110798</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1201-9712(20)30053-9</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Zhao</surname><given-names>Shi</given-names></name><email>shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Qianyin</given-names></name><email>qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Ran</surname><given-names>Jinjun</given-names></name><email>jimran@connect.hku.hk</email><xref rid="aff0020" ref-type="aff">d</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0020"><name><surname>Musa</surname><given-names>Salihu S.</given-names></name><email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0025"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Guangpu</given-names></name><email>kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0030" ref-type="aff">f</xref><xref rid="aff0035" ref-type="aff">g</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0030"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Weiming</given-names></name><email>weimingwang2003@163.com</email><xref rid="aff0040" ref-type="aff">h</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0035"><name><surname>Lou</surname><given-names>Yijun</given-names></name><email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0040"><name><surname>Gao</surname><given-names>Daozhou</given-names></name><email>dzgao@shnu.edu.cn</email><xref rid="aff0045" ref-type="aff">i</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0045"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Lin</given-names></name><email>l.yang@polyu.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0050" ref-type="aff">j</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0050"><name><surname>He</surname><given-names>Daihai</given-names></name><email>daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0055"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Maggie H.</given-names></name><email>maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk</email><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff><aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</aff><aff id="aff0015"><label>c</label>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</aff><aff id="aff0020"><label>d</label>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff><aff id="aff0025"><label>e</label>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</aff><aff id="aff0030"><label>f</label>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff><aff id="aff0035"><label>g</label>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</aff><aff id="aff0040"><label>h</label>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</aff><aff id="aff0045"><label>i</label>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</aff><aff id="aff0050"><label>j</label>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding authors. <email>shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email><email>weimingwang2003@163.com</email><email>daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>30</day><month>1</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>1</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>92</volume><fpage>214</fpage><lpage>217</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>23</day><month>1</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>27</day><month>1</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day><month>1</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 The Author(s)</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0005"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>.</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><abstract id="abs0010"><sec><title>Backgrounds</title><p>An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (<italic>γ</italic>), we estimated <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.</p></sec><sec><title>Findings</title><p>The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>The mean estimate of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group id="kwd0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd><kwd>Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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