Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Identifieur interne : 001089 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001088; suivant : 001090Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Auteurs : Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qianyin Lin [États-Unis] ; Jinjun Ran [République populaire de Chine] ; Salihu S. Musa [République populaire de Chine] ; Guangpu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou [République populaire de Chine] ; Daozhou Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine] ; Maggie H. Wang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06. We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method. We estimated that the mean Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
PubMed: 32007643
PubMed Central: 7110798
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :001089
Links to Exploration step
PMC:7110798Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak</title>
<author><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32007643</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7110798</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7110798</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:7110798</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001089</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001089</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001089</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001089</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak</title>
<author><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title>
<p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0005">The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0010">We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0015">We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0020">Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A. Assiri</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A. McGeer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Perl, T M" uniqKey="Perl T">T.M. Perl</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Price, C S" uniqKey="Price C">C.S. Price</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, A A" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">A.A. Al Rabeeah</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, D A" uniqKey="Cummings D">D.A. Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alabdullatif, Z N" uniqKey="Alabdullatif Z">Z.N. Alabdullatif</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Assad, M" uniqKey="Assad M">M. Assad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Almulhim, A" uniqKey="Almulhim A">A. Almulhim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Makhdoom, H" uniqKey="Makhdoom H">H. Makhdoom</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, C T" uniqKey="Bauch C">C.T. Bauch</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, J O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">J.O. Lloyd-Smith</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Coffee, M P" uniqKey="Coffee M">M.P. Coffee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Galvani, A P" uniqKey="Galvani A">A.P. Galvani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bogoch, I I" uniqKey="Bogoch I">I.I. Bogoch</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watts, A" uniqKey="Watts A">A. Watts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thomas Bachli, A" uniqKey="Thomas Bachli A">A. Thomas-Bachli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huber, C" uniqKey="Huber C">C. Huber</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kraemer, M U" uniqKey="Kraemer M">M.U. Kraemer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khan, K" uniqKey="Khan K">K. Khan</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fang, V J" uniqKey="Fang V">V.J. Fang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Peiris, J M" uniqKey="Peiris J">J.M. Peiris</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="De Silva, U" uniqKey="De Silva U">U. de Silva</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Warachit, J" uniqKey="Warachit J">J. Warachit</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Waicharoen, S" uniqKey="Waicharoen S">S. Waicharoen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chittaganpitch, M" uniqKey="Chittaganpitch M">M. Chittaganpitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A">A.J. Hedley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hubei Provincial Government" uniqKey="Hubei Provincial Government">Hubei provincial government</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Imai, N" uniqKey="Imai N">N. Imai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, I" uniqKey="Dorigatti I">I. Dorigatti</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cori, A" uniqKey="Cori A">A. Cori</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, N M" uniqKey="Ferguson N">N.M. Ferguson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Leung, K" uniqKey="Leung K">K. Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J.T. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lin, Q" uniqKey="Lin Q">Q. Lin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chiu, A P" uniqKey="Chiu A">A.P. Chiu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M. Lipsitch</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cohen, T" uniqKey="Cohen T">T. Cohen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cooper, B" uniqKey="Cooper B">B. Cooper</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Robins, J M" uniqKey="Robins J">J.M. Robins</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, S" uniqKey="Ma S">S. Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="James, L" uniqKey="James L">L. James</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="National Health Commission Of The People Republic Of China" uniqKey="National Health Commission Of The People Republic Of China">National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Read, J M" uniqKey="Read J">J.M. Read</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bridgen, J R" uniqKey="Bridgen J">J.R. Bridgen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, D A" uniqKey="Cummings D">D.A. Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ho, A" uniqKey="Ho A">A. Ho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jewell, C P" uniqKey="Jewell C">C.P. Jewell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J. Riou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Althaus, C L" uniqKey="Althaus C">C.L. Althaus</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shen, M" uniqKey="Shen M">M. Shen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Peng, Z" uniqKey="Peng Z">Z. Peng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiao, Y" uniqKey="Xiao Y">Y. Xiao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, L" uniqKey="Zhang L">L. Zhang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M. Lipsitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P. Teunis</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="World Health Organization" uniqKey="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="World Health Organization" uniqKey="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J.T. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lau, E H" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H. Lau</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ip, D K" uniqKey="Ip D">D.K. Ip</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ho, L M" uniqKey="Ho L">L.-M. Ho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tsang, T" uniqKey="Tsang T">T. Tsang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China" uniqKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China">Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Musa, S S" uniqKey="Musa S">S.S. Musa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fu, H" uniqKey="Fu H">H. Fu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Qin, J" uniqKey="Qin J">J. Qin</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Infect Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int. J. Infect. Dis</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">1201-9712</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1878-3511</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32007643</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7110798</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1201-9712(20)30053-9</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>Shi</given-names>
</name>
<email>shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
<xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Lin</surname>
<given-names>Qianyin</given-names>
</name>
<email>qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Ran</surname>
<given-names>Jinjun</given-names>
</name>
<email>jimran@connect.hku.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0020" ref-type="aff">d</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0020"><name><surname>Musa</surname>
<given-names>Salihu S.</given-names>
</name>
<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0025"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Guangpu</given-names>
</name>
<email>kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0030" ref-type="aff">f</xref>
<xref rid="aff0035" ref-type="aff">g</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0030"><name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Weiming</given-names>
</name>
<email>weimingwang2003@163.com</email>
<xref rid="aff0040" ref-type="aff">h</xref>
<xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0035"><name><surname>Lou</surname>
<given-names>Yijun</given-names>
</name>
<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0040"><name><surname>Gao</surname>
<given-names>Daozhou</given-names>
</name>
<email>dzgao@shnu.edu.cn</email>
<xref rid="aff0045" ref-type="aff">i</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0045"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Lin</given-names>
</name>
<email>l.yang@polyu.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0050" ref-type="aff">j</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0050"><name><surname>He</surname>
<given-names>Daihai</given-names>
</name>
<email>daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref>
<xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0055"><name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Maggie H.</given-names>
</name>
<email>maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk</email>
<xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>
Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0015"><label>c</label>
Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</aff>
<aff id="aff0020"><label>d</label>
School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0025"><label>e</label>
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0030"><label>f</label>
Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0035"><label>g</label>
SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0040"><label>h</label>
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0045"><label>i</label>
Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff0050"><label>j</label>
School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>
Corresponding authors. <email>shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email>
<email>weimingwang2003@163.com</email>
<email>daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>30</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>3</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>92</volume>
<fpage>214</fpage>
<lpage>217</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>23</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>27</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 The Author(s)</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0005"><title>Highlights</title>
<p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0005">The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0010">We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0015">We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label>
<p id="par0020">Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</abstract>
<abstract id="abs0010"><sec><title>Backgrounds</title>
<p>An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (<italic>γ</italic>
), we estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Findings</title>
<p>The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The mean estimate of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group id="kwd0005"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd>Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Pmc/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001089 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 001089 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= Pmc |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= PMC:7110798 |texte= Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32007643" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |