Real-time Estimates in Early Detection of SARS
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Auteurs : Simon Cauchemez [France] ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle [France] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Guy Thomas [France] ; Gabriel M. Leung [République populaire de Chine] ; Anthony J. Hedley [République populaire de Chine] ; Roy M. Anderson [Royaume-Uni] ; Alain-Jacques Valleron [France]Source :
- Emerging Infectious Diseases [ 1080-6040 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
A statistical method can be used for early monitoring of the effect of disease control measures.
Url:
DOI: 10.3201/eid1201.050593
PubMed: 16494726
PubMed Central: 3293464
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Donnelly</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Imperial College, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Imperial College, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Imperial College, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Imperial College, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M." last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, Anthony J" sort="Hedley, Anthony J" uniqKey="Hedley A" first="Anthony J" last="Hedley">Anthony J. Hedley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Roy M" sort="Anderson, Roy M" uniqKey="Anderson R" first="Roy M." last="Anderson">Roy M. Anderson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Imperial College, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Imperial College, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Emerging Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1080-6040</idno><idno type="eISSN">1080-6059</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>A statistical method can be used for early monitoring of the effect of disease control measures.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Emerg Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">EID</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Emerging Infectious Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1080-6040</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1080-6059</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">16494726</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3293464</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">05-0593</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3201/eid1201.050593</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Real-time Estimates in Early Detection of SARS</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Real-Time Estimates in Early Detection of SARS</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Cauchemez</surname><given-names>Simon</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">†</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Boëlle</surname><given-names>Pierre-Yves</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">†</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">‡</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Donnelly</surname><given-names>Christl A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ferguson</surname><given-names>Neil M</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thomas</surname><given-names>Guy</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">†</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">‡</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>Gabriel M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">¶</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hedley</surname><given-names>Anthony J</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">¶</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Anderson</surname><given-names>Roy M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Valleron</surname><given-names>Alain-Jacques</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">†</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">‡</xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><label>*</label>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France;</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>†</label>Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France;</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>‡</label>Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France;</aff><aff id="aff4"><label>§</label>Imperial College, London, United Kingdom;</aff><aff id="aff5"><label>¶</label>University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">Address for correspondence: Simon Cauchemez, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom; fax: 44-20-0759-43282; email: <email xlink:href="s.cauchemez@imperial.ac.uk">s.cauchemez@imperial.ac.uk</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>1</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>110</fpage><lpage>113</lpage><abstract abstract-type="toc"><p>A statistical method can be used for early monitoring of the effect of disease control measures.</p></abstract><abstract><p>We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for estimating the reproduction number <italic>R</italic> early in an epidemic. This method allows for the yet-unrecorded secondary cases if the estimate is obtained before the epidemic has ended. We applied our approach to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic that started in February 2003 in Hong Kong. Temporal patterns of <italic>R</italic> estimated after 5, 10, and 20 days were similar. Ninety-five percent credible intervals narrowed when more data were available but stabilized after 10 days. Using simulation studies of SARS-like outbreaks, we have shown that the method may be used for early monitoring of the effect of control measures.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><title>Keywords: </title><kwd>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</kwd><kwd>communicable diseases</kwd><kwd>emerging</kwd><kwd>disease outbreaks</kwd><kwd>epidemiologic methods</kwd><kwd>population surveillance</kwd><kwd>reproduction number</kwd><kwd>Hong Kong</kwd><kwd>research</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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