Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Identifieur interne : 000C10 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C09; suivant : 000C11Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Auteurs : Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Ted Cohen [États-Unis] ; Ben Cooper [États-Unis] ; James M. Robins [États-Unis] ; Stefan Ma ; Lyn James ; Gowri Gopalakrishna ; Suok Kai Chew ; Chorh Chuan Tan ; Matthew H. Samore [États-Unis] ; David Fisman [Canada] ; Megan Murray [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2003.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
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DOI: 10.1126/science.1086616
PubMed: 12766207
PubMed Central: 2760158
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Stefan Ma<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation>Le document en format XML
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Robins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Stefan" sort="Ma, Stefan" uniqKey="Ma S" first="Stefan" last="Ma">Stefan Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="James, Lyn" sort="James, Lyn" uniqKey="James L" first="Lyn" last="James">Lyn James</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gopalakrishna, Gowri" sort="Gopalakrishna, Gowri" uniqKey="Gopalakrishna G" first="Gowri" last="Gopalakrishna">Gowri Gopalakrishna</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chew, Suok Kai" sort="Chew, Suok Kai" uniqKey="Chew S" first="Suok Kai" last="Chew">Suok Kai Chew</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Chorh Chuan" sort="Tan, Chorh Chuan" uniqKey="Tan C" first="Chorh Chuan" last="Tan">Chorh Chuan Tan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Samore, Matthew H" sort="Samore, Matthew H" uniqKey="Samore M" first="Matthew H." last="Samore">Matthew H. Samore</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84132, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84132</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A4">Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5, Canada.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A5">City of Hamilton Public Health and Community Service Department, Hamilton, Ontario L8R 3L5, Canada.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>City of Hamilton Public Health and Community Service Department, Hamilton, Ontario L8R 3L5</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, Megan" sort="Murray, Megan" uniqKey="Murray M" first="Megan" last="Murray">Megan Murray</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A6">Infectious Disease Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">12766207</idno><idno type="pmc">2760158</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2760158</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2760158</idno><idno type="doi">10.1126/science.1086616</idno><date when="2003">2003</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C10</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C10</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C10</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C10</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</title><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cohen, Ted" sort="Cohen, Ted" uniqKey="Cohen T" first="Ted" last="Cohen">Ted Cohen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Ben" sort="Cooper, Ben" uniqKey="Cooper B" first="Ben" last="Cooper">Ben Cooper</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robins, James M" sort="Robins, James M" uniqKey="Robins J" first="James M." last="Robins">James M. Robins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Stefan" sort="Ma, Stefan" uniqKey="Ma S" first="Stefan" last="Ma">Stefan Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="James, Lyn" sort="James, Lyn" uniqKey="James L" first="Lyn" last="James">Lyn James</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gopalakrishna, Gowri" sort="Gopalakrishna, Gowri" uniqKey="Gopalakrishna G" first="Gowri" last="Gopalakrishna">Gowri Gopalakrishna</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chew, Suok Kai" sort="Chew, Suok Kai" uniqKey="Chew S" first="Suok Kai" last="Chew">Suok Kai Chew</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Chorh Chuan" sort="Tan, Chorh Chuan" uniqKey="Tan C" first="Chorh Chuan" last="Tan">Chorh Chuan Tan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Singapore 169854.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Samore, Matthew H" sort="Samore, Matthew H" uniqKey="Samore M" first="Matthew H." last="Samore">Matthew H. Samore</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84132, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84132</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A4">Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5, Canada.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A5">City of Hamilton Public Health and Community Service Department, Hamilton, Ontario L8R 3L5, Canada.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>City of Hamilton Public Health and Community Service Department, Hamilton, Ontario L8R 3L5</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, Megan" sort="Murray, Megan" uniqKey="Murray M" first="Megan" last="Murray">Megan Murray</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A6">Infectious Disease Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2003">2003</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P1">Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article" xml:lang="EN"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">0404511</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">7473</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Science</journal-id><journal-title>Science (New York, N.Y.)</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0036-8075</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1095-9203</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">12766207</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2760158</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1126/science.1086616</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">NIHMS94738</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lipsitch</surname><given-names>Marc</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cohen</surname><given-names>Ted</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cooper</surname><given-names>Ben</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Robins</surname><given-names>James M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Stefan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>James</surname><given-names>Lyn</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gopalakrishna</surname><given-names>Gowri</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chew</surname><given-names>Suok Kai</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tan</surname><given-names>Chorh Chuan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Samore</surname><given-names>Matthew H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fisman</surname><given-names>David</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Murray</surname><given-names>Megan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A6">6</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="CR1">*</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="A1"><label>1</label>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</aff><aff id="A2"><label>2</label>Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, College of Medicine Building, 16 College Road, Singapore 169854.</aff><aff id="A3"><label>3</label>Department of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84132, USA.</aff><aff id="A4"><label>4</label>Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5, Canada.</aff><aff id="A5"><label>5</label>City of Hamilton Public Health and Community Service Department, Hamilton, Ontario L8R 3L5, Canada.</aff><aff id="A6"><label>6</label>Infectious Disease Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA.</aff><author-notes><corresp id="CR1"><label>*</label>To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>mmurray@hsph.harvard.edu</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>13</day><month>2</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>5</month><year>2003</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>20</day><month>6</month><year>2003</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>12</day><month>10</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><volume>300</volume><issue>5627</issue><fpage>1966</fpage><lpage>1970</lpage><related-article journal-id-type="nlm-ta" journal-id="Science" related-article-type="commentary" page="1884" id="N0x1f1bfc0N0x2912b60" xlink:href="12766208" ext-link-type="pubmed" vol="300"></related-article><abstract><p id="P1">Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.</p></abstract><contract-num rid="AI1">K08 AI055985-01A1</contract-num><contract-sponsor id="AI1">National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Extramural Activities : NIAID</contract-sponsor></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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