Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
Identifieur interne : 000441 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000440; suivant : 000442Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
Auteurs : Joseph T. Wu [République populaire de Chine] ; Kathy Leung [République populaire de Chine] ; Mary Bushman [États-Unis] ; Nishant Kishore [États-Unis] ; Rene Niehus [États-Unis] ; Pablo M. De Salazar [États-Unis] ; Benjamin J. Cowling [République populaire de Chine] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Gabriel M. Leung [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Nature Medicine [ 1078-8956 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
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DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7094929
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Chan School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>Boston, MA USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M." last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000121742757</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.194645.b</institution-id><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine,</institution><institution>The University of Hong Kong,</institution></institution-wrap>Hong Kong SAR, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Hong Kong SAR</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">1078-8956</idno><idno type="eISSN">1546-170X</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR1">1</xref></sup> of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A" uniqKey="Ghani A">A Ghani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yu, H" uniqKey="Yu H">H Yu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jia, N" uniqKey="Jia N">N Jia</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lau, Eh" uniqKey="Lau E">EH Lau</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Taubenberger, Jk" uniqKey="Taubenberger J">JK Taubenberger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morens, Dm" uniqKey="Morens D">DM Morens</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Collins, Sd" uniqKey="Collins S">SD Collins</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Andreasen, V" uniqKey="Andreasen V">V Andreasen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donaldson, Lj" uniqKey="Donaldson L">LJ Donaldson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Oh, Md" uniqKey="Oh M">MD Oh</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Abbad, A" uniqKey="Abbad A">A Abbad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Backer, Ja" uniqKey="Backer J">JA Backer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Klinkenberg, D" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D">D Klinkenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Nat Med</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Nat. Med</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Nature Medicine</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1078-8956</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1546-170X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Nature Publishing Group US</publisher-name><publisher-loc>New York</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7094929</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">822</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Letter</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" equal-contrib="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3155-5987</contrib-id><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>Joseph T.</given-names></name><address><email>joewu@hku.hk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>Kathy</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bushman</surname><given-names>Mary</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kishore</surname><given-names>Nishant</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Niehus</surname><given-names>Rene</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>de Salazar</surname><given-names>Pablo M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-7154</contrib-id><name><surname>Cowling</surname><given-names>Benjamin J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lipsitch</surname><given-names>Marc</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>Gabriel M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><aff id="Aff1"><label>1</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000121742757</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.194645.b</institution-id><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine,</institution><institution>The University of Hong Kong,</institution></institution-wrap>Hong Kong SAR, China</aff><aff id="Aff2"><label>2</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution>Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>Boston, MA USA</aff></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>19</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><fpage>1</fpage><lpage>5</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>13</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>9</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2020</copyright-statement><license><license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="Abs1"><p id="Par1">As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR1">1</xref></sup> of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).</p></abstract><abstract id="Abs2" abstract-type="web-summary"><p id="Par2">An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="npg-subject"><title>Subject terms</title><kwd>Computational biology and bioinformatics</kwd><kwd>Microbiology</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="FundRef">https://doi.org/10.13039/501100005847</institution-id><institution>Food and Health Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region | Health and Medical Research Fund (HMRF)</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source></award-group></funding-group><funding-group><award-group><funding-source><institution>Fellowship Foundation Ramon Areces</institution></funding-source></award-group></funding-group><funding-group><award-group><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="FundRef">https://doi.org/10.13039/100000057</institution-id><institution>U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>U54GM088558</award-id><award-id>U54GM088558</award-id><award-id>U54GM088558</award-id><award-id>U54GM088558</award-id><award-id>U54GM088558</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Bushman</surname><given-names>Mary</given-names></name><name><surname>Kishore</surname><given-names>Nishant</given-names></name><name><surname>Niehus</surname><given-names>Rene</given-names></name><name><surname>de Salazar</surname><given-names>Pablo M.</given-names></name><name><surname>Lipsitch</surname><given-names>Marc</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group></funding-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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