SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free?
Identifieur interne : 001489 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 001488; suivant : 001490SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free?
Auteurs : V. T. Farewell ; A. M. Herzberg ; K. W. James ; L. M. Ho ; G. M. LeungSource :
- Statistics in Medicine [ 0277-6715 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
The setting of a quarantine time for an emerging infectious disease will depend on current knowledge concerning incubation times. Methods for the analysis of information on incubation times are investigated with a particular focus on inference regarding a possible maximum incubation time, after which an exposed individual would be known to be disease free. Data from the Hong Kong SARS epidemic are used for illustration. The incorporation of interval‐censored data is considered and comparison is made with percentile estimation. Results suggest that a wide class of models for incubation times should be considered because the apparent informativeness of a likelihood depends on the choice and generalizability of a model. There will usually remain a probability of releasing from quarantine some infected individuals and the impact of early release will depend on the size of the epidemic. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Url:
DOI: 10.1002/sim.2206
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7169610
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Stat Med</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Stat Med</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0258</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">SIM</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Statistics in Medicine</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0277-6715</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1097-0258</issn><publisher><publisher-name>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Chichester, UK</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7169610</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1002/sim.2206</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">SIM2206</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="overline"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free?</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">SARS INCUBATION TIMES</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib id="au1" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Farewell</surname><given-names>V. T.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1"><sup>1</sup></xref><address><email>vern.farewell@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk</email></address></contrib><contrib id="au2" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Herzberg</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib id="au3" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>James</surname><given-names>K. W.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib id="au4" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ho</surname><given-names>L. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib id="au5" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>G. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af1"><label><sup>1</sup></label>MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, U.K.</aff><aff id="af2"><label><sup>2</sup></label>Queen's University, Kingston, Canada</aff><aff id="af3"><label><sup>3</sup></label>Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China</aff><author-notes><corresp id="correspondenceTo"><label>*</label>MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB4 2AP, U.K.</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>19</day><month>10</month><year>2005</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>30</day><month>11</month><year>2005</year></pub-date><volume>24</volume><issue>22</issue><issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1002/sim.v24:22</issue-id><fpage>3431</fpage><lpage>3445</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>28</day><month>5</month><year>2004</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>01</day><month>2</month><year>2005</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</copyright-statement><license><license-p>This article is being made freely available through PubMed Central as part of the COVID-19 public health emergency response. It can be used for unrestricted research re-use and analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source, for the duration of the public health emergency.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="file:SIM-24-3431.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><title>Abstract</title><p>The setting of a quarantine time for an emerging infectious disease will depend on current knowledge concerning incubation times. Methods for the analysis of information on incubation times are investigated with a particular focus on inference regarding a possible maximum incubation time, after which an exposed individual would be known to be disease free. Data from the Hong Kong SARS epidemic are used for illustration. The incorporation of interval‐censored data is considered and comparison is made with percentile estimation. Results suggest that a wide class of models for incubation times should be considered because the apparent informativeness of a likelihood depends on the choice and generalizability of a model. There will usually remain a probability of releasing from quarantine some infected individuals and the impact of early release will depend on the size of the epidemic. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-generated"><kwd id="kwd1">incubation times</kwd><kwd id="kwd2">log‐gamma distribution</kwd><kwd id="kwd3">truncated distributions</kwd><kwd id="kwd4">SARS</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group id="funding-0001"><funding-source>Medical Research Council (UK)</funding-source></award-group><award-group id="funding-0002"><funding-source>National Science and Engineering Research Council (Canada)</funding-source></award-group><award-group id="funding-0003"><funding-source>Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Diseases of the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government</funding-source></award-group></funding-group><counts><fig-count count="6"></fig-count><table-count count="2"></table-count><ref-count count="10"></ref-count><page-count count="15"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>source-schema-version-number</meta-name><meta-value>2.0</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta><meta-name>cover-date</meta-name><meta-value>30 November 2005</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta><meta-name>details-of-publishers-convertor</meta-name><meta-value>Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.8.0 mode:remove_FC converted:15.04.2020</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>REFERENCES</title><ref id="bib1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="journal" id="cit1"><string-name><surname>Donnelly</surname><given-names>CA</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Ghani</surname><given-names>AC</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>GM</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Hedley</surname><given-names>AJ</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Fraser</surname><given-names>C</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Riley</surname><given-names>S</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Abu‐Raddad</surname><given-names>LJ</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Ho</surname><given-names>LM</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Thach</surname><given-names>T‐Q</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Chau</surname><given-names>P</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Chan</surname><given-names>K‐P</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Lam</surname><given-names>T‐H</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Tse</surname><given-names>L‐Y</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Tsang</surname><given-names>T</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>S‐H</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Kong</surname><given-names>JHB</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Lau</surname><given-names>EMC</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Ferguson</surname><given-names>NM</given-names></string-name>, <string-name><surname>Anderson</surname><given-names>RM</given-names></string-name>. <article-title>Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong</article-title>. <source xml:lang="en">Lancet</source><year>2003</year>; <volume>361</volume>:<fpage>1761</fpage>–<lpage>1766</lpage>.<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">12781533</pub-id></mixed-citation></ref><ref id="bib2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="book" id="cit2"><person-group person-group-type="editor"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bennett</surname><given-names>JH</given-names></name></person-group> (ed.). <source xml:lang="en">Statistical Inference and Analysis. 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