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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Mathematical Modeling of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Nosocomial Transmission in Japan: The Dynamics of Incident Cases and Prevalent Cases</title>
<author><name sortKey="Fukutome, Ayako" sort="Fukutome, Ayako" uniqKey="Fukutome A" first="Ayako" last="Fukutome">Ayako Fukutome</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0001"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0002"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watashi, Koichi" sort="Watashi, Koichi" uniqKey="Watashi K" first="Koichi" last="Watashi">Koichi Watashi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0003"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0004"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kawakami, Norito" sort="Kawakami, Norito" uniqKey="Kawakami N" first="Norito" last="Kawakami">Norito Kawakami</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0005"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" sort="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" uniqKey="Ishikawa H" first="Hirofumi" last="Ishikawa">Hirofumi Ishikawa</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0002"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7168393</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7168393</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:7168393</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1111/j.1348-0421.2007.tb03978.x</idno>
<idno type="pmid">NONE</idno>
<date when="2007">2007</date>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Mathematical Modeling of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Nosocomial Transmission in Japan: The Dynamics of Incident Cases and Prevalent Cases</title>
<author><name sortKey="Fukutome, Ayako" sort="Fukutome, Ayako" uniqKey="Fukutome A" first="Ayako" last="Fukutome">Ayako Fukutome</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0001"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0002"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watashi, Koichi" sort="Watashi, Koichi" uniqKey="Watashi K" first="Koichi" last="Watashi">Koichi Watashi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0003"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0004"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kawakami, Norito" sort="Kawakami, Norito" uniqKey="Kawakami N" first="Norito" last="Kawakami">Norito Kawakami</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0005"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" sort="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" uniqKey="Ishikawa H" first="Hirofumi" last="Ishikawa">Hirofumi Ishikawa</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="mim03978-aff-0002"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Microbiology and Immunology</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0385-5600</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1348-0421</idno>
<imprint><date when="2007">2007</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Abstract</title>
<p>An outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in Hong Kong in late February 2003, resulting in 8,096 cumulative cases with 774 deaths. The outbreak was amplified by nosocomial transmission in many hospitals. Using mathematical modeling, we simulated the number of new incident and prevalent cases of SARS after one infected person was admitted to a hospital (index case). The simulation was tested stochastically using the SEIR model based on previously reported Gamma distributions. We estimated the duration time until 10 beds in negative pressure rooms in Chiyoda‐ku, one of the 23 wards in Tokyo, were fully occupied with SARS‐infected patients. We determined the impact of an increasing number of days on the number of prevalent cases until the index case was isolated. The prevalent cases increase exponentially along with the increase of the non‐isolation period of the index case, and all the beds were fully occupied if the index case was not isolated until more than 6 days. However even 2 days non‐isolation period of the index case could fill up all the beds when 16% of secondary infections are transmitted outside the hospital. There is a possibility that an epidemic will occur with the isolation of the index case even at early days if the infection is transmitted outside the hospital. The simulation results revealed that it was important to recognize and isolate SARS patients as early as possible and also to prevent the transmission spreading outside the hospital to control an epidemic.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Microbiol Immunol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Microbiol. Immunol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1111/(ISSN)1348-0421</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">MIM</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Microbiology and Immunology</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0385-5600</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1348-0421</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>John Wiley and Sons Inc.</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Hoboken</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7168393</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/j.1348-0421.2007.tb03978.x</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">MIM03978</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="overline"><subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Mathematical Modeling of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Nosocomial Transmission in Japan: The Dynamics of Incident Cases and Prevalent Cases</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib id="mim03978-cr-0001" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fukutome</surname>
<given-names>Ayako</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0001"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0002"><sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="mim03978-cr-0002" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Watashi</surname>
<given-names>Koichi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0003"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0004"><sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="mim03978-cr-0003" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kawakami</surname>
<given-names>Norito</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0005"><sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="mim03978-cr-0004" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Ishikawa</surname>
<given-names>Hirofumi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="mim03978-aff-0002"><sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="mim03978-aff-0001"><label><sup>1</sup>
</label>
<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine</named-content>
<institution>Dentistry & Pharmaceutical Sciences</institution>
<city>Okayama</city>
<named-content content-type="country-part">Okayama</named-content>
<postal-code>700‐8558</postal-code>
<country country="JP">Japan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="mim03978-aff-0002"><label><sup>2</sup>
</label>
<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Department of Human Ecology, Graduate School of Environmental Science</named-content>
<institution>Okayama University</institution>
<city>Okayama</city>
<named-content content-type="country-part">Okayama</named-content>
<postal-code>700‐8530</postal-code>
<country country="JP">Japan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="mim03978-aff-0003"><label><sup>3</sup>
</label>
<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Department of Viral Oncology, Institute for Virus Research</named-content>
<institution>Kyoto University</institution>
<city>Kyoto</city>
<named-content content-type="country-part">Kyoto</named-content>
<postal-code>606‐8507</postal-code>
<country country="JP">Japan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="mim03978-aff-0004"><label><sup>4</sup>
</label>
<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases</named-content>
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
<named-content content-type="street">9000 Rockville Pike, Bldg4, #304</named-content>
<city>Bethesda</city>
<postal-code>MD 20892</postal-code>
<country country="US">U.S.A.</country>
</aff>
<aff id="mim03978-aff-0005"><label><sup>5</sup>
</label>
<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Department of Mental Health</named-content>
<institution>University of Tokyo Graduate School of Medicine</institution>
<city>Bunkyo‐ku</city>
<named-content content-type="country-part">Tokyo</named-content>
<postal-code>113‐0033</postal-code>
<country country="JP">Japan</country>
</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="correspondenceTo"><label>*</label>
<italic>Address correspondence to</italic>
Dr. Hirofumi Ishikawa, Department of Human Ecology, Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, 3‐1‐1, Tsushima‐naka, Okayama, Okayama 700‐8530, Japan. Fax: +81‐86‐251‐8837. E‐mail: <email>ishikawa@ems.okayama-u.ac.jp</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>9</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>51</volume>
<issue>9</issue>
<issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/mim.2007.51.issue-9</issue-id>
<fpage>823</fpage>
<lpage>832</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>08</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2006</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>18</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>25</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><pmc-comment> © owned by Center for Academic Publications Japan (Publisher) </pmc-comment>
<copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">© owned by Center for Academic Publications Japan (Publisher)</copyright-statement>
<license><license-p>This article is being made freely available through PubMed Central as part of the COVID-19 public health emergency response. It can be used for unrestricted research re-use and analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source, for the duration of the public health emergency.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="file://MIM-51-823.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><title>Abstract</title>
<p>An outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in Hong Kong in late February 2003, resulting in 8,096 cumulative cases with 774 deaths. The outbreak was amplified by nosocomial transmission in many hospitals. Using mathematical modeling, we simulated the number of new incident and prevalent cases of SARS after one infected person was admitted to a hospital (index case). The simulation was tested stochastically using the SEIR model based on previously reported Gamma distributions. We estimated the duration time until 10 beds in negative pressure rooms in Chiyoda‐ku, one of the 23 wards in Tokyo, were fully occupied with SARS‐infected patients. We determined the impact of an increasing number of days on the number of prevalent cases until the index case was isolated. The prevalent cases increase exponentially along with the increase of the non‐isolation period of the index case, and all the beds were fully occupied if the index case was not isolated until more than 6 days. However even 2 days non‐isolation period of the index case could fill up all the beds when 16% of secondary infections are transmitted outside the hospital. There is a possibility that an epidemic will occur with the isolation of the index case even at early days if the infection is transmitted outside the hospital. The simulation results revealed that it was important to recognize and isolate SARS patients as early as possible and also to prevent the transmission spreading outside the hospital to control an epidemic.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-generated"><kwd id="mim03978-kwd-0001">SARS</kwd>
<kwd id="mim03978-kwd-0002">nosocomial transmission</kwd>
<kwd id="mim03978-kwd-0003">stochastic model</kwd>
<kwd id="mim03978-kwd-0004">simulation</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group id="funding-0001"><funding-source>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</funding-source>
<award-id>16540105</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="funding-0002"><funding-source>Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan for “Research for Emerging and Re‐emerging Infections”</funding-source>
<award-id>H17‐Sinkou‐ippan‐019</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<counts><fig-count count="4"></fig-count>
<table-count count="0"></table-count>
<ref-count count="21"></ref-count>
<page-count count="10"></page-count>
</counts>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>source-schema-version-number</meta-name>
<meta-value>2.0</meta-value>
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<custom-meta><meta-name>cover-date</meta-name>
<meta-value>September 2007</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
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<meta-value>Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.8.0 mode:remove_FC converted:15.04.2020</meta-value>
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</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body id="mim03978-bdy-0001"><def-list list-content="abbreviations" id="mim03978-dlist1"><title>Abbreviations</title>
<def-item><term>SARS</term>
<def><p>severe acute respiratory syndrome</p>
</def>
</def-item>
<def-item><term>SARS‐CoV</term>
<def><p>SARS‐associated coronavirus</p>
</def>
</def-item>
<def-item><term>SS</term>
<def><p>super spreader</p>
</def>
</def-item>
<def-item><term>SSE</term>
<def><p>super spread event</p>
</def>
</def-item>
<def-item><term>WHO</term>
<def><p>World Health Organization.</p>
</def>
</def-item>
</def-list>
</body>
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