Has China faced only a herald wave of SARS-CoV-2?
Identifieur interne : 000B22 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 000B21; suivant : 000B23Has China faced only a herald wave of SARS-CoV-2?
Auteurs : Antoine FlahaultSource :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 0140-6736 ] ; 2020.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30521-3
PubMed: 32145187
PubMed Central: 7124610
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Has China faced only a herald wave of SARS-CoV-2?</title><author><name sortKey="Flahault, Antoine" sort="Flahault, Antoine" uniqKey="Flahault A" first="Antoine" last="Flahault">Antoine Flahault</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32145187</idno><idno type="pmc">7124610</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124610</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7124610</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30521-3</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000B22</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000B22</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Has China faced only a herald wave of SARS-CoV-2?</title><author><name sortKey="Flahault, Antoine" sort="Flahault, Antoine" uniqKey="Flahault A" first="Antoine" last="Flahault">Antoine Flahault</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jt" uniqKey="Wu J">JT Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, K" uniqKey="Leung K">K Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gerardin, P" uniqKey="Gerardin P">P Gérardin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guernier, V" uniqKey="Guernier V">V Guernier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perrau, J" uniqKey="Perrau J">J Perrau</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="letter"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Lancet</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Lancet</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Lancet (London, England)</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0140-6736</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1474-547X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32145187</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7124610</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0140-6736(20)30521-3</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30521-3</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Has China faced only a herald wave of SARS-CoV-2?</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au10"><name><surname>Flahault</surname><given-names>Antoine</given-names></name><email>antoine.flahault@unige.ch</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland</aff><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>4</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>4</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><elocation-id></elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions></article-meta></front><body><p id="para10">The attack rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) calculated by mathematical models, from estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2–3, suggests that 50–60% of the population should eventually be infected because the population seems to be entirely naive to the new virus.<xref rid="bib1" ref-type="bibr"><sup>1</sup></xref> The observed attack rate on board the <italic>Diamond Princess</italic> cruise ship remained slightly below 20% (705 of 3711 passengers and crew members became infected).<xref rid="bib1" ref-type="bibr"><sup>1</sup></xref> It is of upmost importance to know whether the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in China is subsiding, as local authorities and the entire international community might wish. With 80 026 COVID-19 cases officially reported from China as of March 2, 2020,<xref rid="bib2" ref-type="bibr"><sup>2</sup></xref> the proportion of the population affected remains far from 50%, or even 20%, of China's 1·4 billion people. Has China just experienced a herald wave, to use terminology borrowed from those who study tsunamis, and is the big wave still to come?</p><p id="para20">Serosurveys can help answer these questions precisely.<xref rid="bib3" ref-type="bibr"><sup>3</sup></xref> To serosurvey the outbreak would involve testing sera of blood samples from the most representative sample of the population at the epicentre of the epidemic, Wuhan. Serology analysis with neutralising antibodies from the 1000 people could allow for the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections to be estimated with good accuracy. This rate could be extrapolated to the city's entire population and thus inform more precisely whether the provisional attack rate during this period was a few cases per thousand or perhaps affected 1–2% of the population, 20%, or more. Serosurveys should be seen as polls before elections; they can be repeated several times,<xref rid="bib3" ref-type="bibr"><sup>3</sup></xref> week after week, to monitor the epidemic precisely.</p><p id="para30">There is no reason to wait for the end of the epidemic before doing serosurveys. The results would be tremendously informative to China, first and foremost, and to the entire international community, on the risk of big secondary epidemic waves.</p></body><back><ref-list id="bibl10"><title>References</title><ref id="bib1"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref10"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>JT</given-names></name><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>K</given-names></name><name><surname>Leung</surname><given-names>GM</given-names></name></person-group><article-title>Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study</article-title><source>Lancet</source><volume>395</volume><year>2020</year><fpage>689</fpage><lpage>697</lpage><pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32014114</pub-id></element-citation></ref><ref id="bib2"><label>2</label><element-citation publication-type="other" id="sbref20"><person-group person-group-type="author"><collab>Worldometers</collab></person-group><article-title>Confirmed cases and deaths by country, territory, or conveyance</article-title><ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries" id="interrefs10">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries</ext-link></element-citation></ref><ref id="bib3"><label>3</label><element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref30"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Gérardin</surname><given-names>P</given-names></name><name><surname>Guernier</surname><given-names>V</given-names></name><name><surname>Perrau</surname><given-names>J</given-names></name></person-group><article-title>Estimating Chikungunya prevalence in La Réunion Island outbreak by serosurveys: two methods for two critical times of the epidemic</article-title><source>BMC Infect Dis</source><volume>8</volume><year>2008</year><fpage>99</fpage><pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18662384</pub-id></element-citation></ref></ref-list><ack><p>I declare no competing interests.</p></ack></back></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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