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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The outbreak pattern of the SARS cases in Asia</title><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Zhibin" sort="Zhang, Zhibin" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zhibin" last="Zhang">Zhibin Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sheng, Chengfa" sort="Sheng, Chengfa" uniqKey="Sheng C" first="Chengfa" last="Sheng">Chengfa Sheng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Zufei" sort="Ma, Zufei" uniqKey="Ma Z" first="Zufei" last="Ma">Zufei Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Dianmo" sort="Li, Dianmo" uniqKey="Li D" first="Dianmo" last="Li">Dianmo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32214712</idno><idno type="pmc">7089107</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089107</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7089107</idno><idno type="doi">10.1007/BF03183407</idno><date when="2004">2004</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000355</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000355</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">The outbreak pattern of the SARS cases in Asia</title><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Zhibin" sort="Zhang, Zhibin" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zhibin" last="Zhang">Zhibin Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sheng, Chengfa" sort="Sheng, Chengfa" uniqKey="Sheng C" first="Chengfa" last="Sheng">Chengfa Sheng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Zufei" sort="Ma, Zufei" uniqKey="Ma Z" first="Zufei" last="Ma">Zufei Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Dianmo" sort="Li, Dianmo" uniqKey="Li D" first="Dianmo" last="Li">Dianmo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Chinese Science Bulletin = Kexue Tongbao</title><idno type="ISSN">1001-6538</idno><idno type="eISSN">1861-9541</idno><imprint><date when="2004">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused tremendous damage to many Asia countries, especially China. The transmission process and outbreak pattern of SARS is still not well understood. This study aims to find a simple model to describe the outbreak pattern of SARS cases by using SARS case data commonly released by governments. The outbreak pattern of cumulative SARS cases is expected to be a logistic type because the infection will be slowed down due to the increasing control effort by people and/or due to depletion of susceptible individuals. The increase rate of SARS cases is expected to decrease with the cumulative SARS cases, as described by the traditional logistical model, which is widely used in population dynamic studies. The instantaneous rate of increases were significantly and negatively correlated with the cumulative SARS cases in mainland of China (including Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, Shanxi, the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia) and Singapore. The basic reproduction number<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in Asia ranged from 2.0 to 5.6 (except for Taiwan, China). The<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> of Hebei and Tianjin were much higher than that of Singapore, Hongkong, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, indicating SARS virus might have originated differently or new mutations occurred during transmission. We demonstrated that the outbreaks of SARS in many regions of Asia were well described by the logistic model, and the control measures implemented by governments are effective. The maximum instantaneous rate of increase, basic reproductive number, and maximum cumulative SARS cases were also calculated by using the logistic model.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dye, C" uniqKey="Dye C">C. Dye</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, N" uniqKey="Gay N">N. Gay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Chin Sci Bull</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Chin. Sci. Bull</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Chinese Science Bulletin = Kexue Tongbao</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1001-6538</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1861-9541</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Science in China Press</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Beijing</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32214712</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7089107</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">BF03183407</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/BF03183407</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>The outbreak pattern of the SARS cases in Asia</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Zhibin</given-names></name><address><email>zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sheng</surname><given-names>Chengfa</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Zufei</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Dianmo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9227.e</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000119573309</institution-id><institution>Institute of Zoology,</institution><institution>Chinese Academy of Sciences,</institution></institution-wrap>100080 Beijing, China</aff></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2004</year></pub-date><volume>49</volume><issue>17</issue><fpage>1819</fpage><lpage>1823</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>3</month><year>2004</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>2</day><month>8</month><year>2004</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© Science in China Press 2004</copyright-statement><license><license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="Abs1"><p>The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused tremendous damage to many Asia countries, especially China. The transmission process and outbreak pattern of SARS is still not well understood. This study aims to find a simple model to describe the outbreak pattern of SARS cases by using SARS case data commonly released by governments. The outbreak pattern of cumulative SARS cases is expected to be a logistic type because the infection will be slowed down due to the increasing control effort by people and/or due to depletion of susceptible individuals. The increase rate of SARS cases is expected to decrease with the cumulative SARS cases, as described by the traditional logistical model, which is widely used in population dynamic studies. The instantaneous rate of increases were significantly and negatively correlated with the cumulative SARS cases in mainland of China (including Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, Shanxi, the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia) and Singapore. The basic reproduction number<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in Asia ranged from 2.0 to 5.6 (except for Taiwan, China). The<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> of Hebei and Tianjin were much higher than that of Singapore, Hongkong, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, indicating SARS virus might have originated differently or new mutations occurred during transmission. We demonstrated that the outbreaks of SARS in many regions of Asia were well described by the logistic model, and the control measures implemented by governments are effective. The maximum instantaneous rate of increase, basic reproductive number, and maximum cumulative SARS cases were also calculated by using the logistic model.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)</kwd><kwd>outbreak</kwd><kwd>epidemiology</kwd><kwd>logistic model</kwd></kwd-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name><meta-value>© Science in China Press 2004</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list id="Bib1"><title>References</title><ref id="CR1"><label>1.</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other">Lipsitch, M. et al., Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Science, 300: 1966–1970.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="CR2"><label>2.</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other">Riley, S. et al., Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions, Science, 300: 1961–1966.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="CR3"><label>3.</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Dye</surname><given-names>C.</given-names></name><name><surname>Gay</surname><given-names>N.</given-names></name></person-group><article-title>Modeling the SARS Epidemic</article-title><source>Science</source><year>2003</year><volume>300</volume><issue>5627</issue><fpage>1884</fpage><lpage>1885</lpage><pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1126/science.1086925</pub-id><pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">12766208</pub-id></element-citation></ref><ref id="CR4"><label>4.</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Wallinga</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name><name><surname>Edmunds</surname><given-names>W. 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