2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling
Identifieur interne : 000834 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000833; suivant : 0008352015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling
Auteurs : Ying-Hen HsiehSource :
- PeerJ [ 2167-8359 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.7717/peerj.1505
PubMed: 26713252
PubMed Central: 4690341
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling</title><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff-1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">26713252</idno><idno type="pmc">4690341</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4690341</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4690341</idno><idno type="doi">10.7717/peerj.1505</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000013</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000013</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000013</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000013</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000834</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000834</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling</title><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff-1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PeerJ</title><idno type="eISSN">2167-8359</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background</bold>. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases.</p><p><bold>Methods</bold>. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control.</p><p><bold>Results</bold>. The estimated outbreak turning point of <italic>t<sub>i</sub></italic> = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6–24.0]), or 23–24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3–4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3.</p><p><bold>Discussion and Conclusion</bold>. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27–29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, Ct" uniqKey="Bauch C">CT Bauch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coffee, Mp" uniqKey="Coffee M">MP Coffee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Galvani, Ap" uniqKey="Galvani A">AP Galvani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Breban, R" uniqKey="Breban R">R Breban</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A 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Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xs" uniqKey="Wang X">XS Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yu, It" uniqKey="Yu I">IT Yu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Y" uniqKey="Li Y">Y Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Tw" uniqKey="Wong T">TW Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tam, W" uniqKey="Tam W">W Tam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, At" uniqKey="Chan A">AT Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Jh" uniqKey="Lee J">JH Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Dy" uniqKey="Leung D">DY Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, T" uniqKey="Ho T">T Ho</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhou, G" uniqKey="Zhou G">G Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, G" uniqKey="Yan G">G Yan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PeerJ</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PeerJ</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">PeerJ</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PeerJ</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PeerJ</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2167-8359</issn><publisher><publisher-name>PeerJ Inc.</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26713252</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4690341</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1505</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7717/peerj.1505</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Mathematical Biology</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Epidemiology</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Public Health</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib id="author-1" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname><given-names>Ying-Hen</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1">1</xref><email>hsieh@mail.cmu.edu.tw</email></contrib><aff id="aff-1"><institution>Department of Public Health and Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research,China Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Taichung</addr-line>,<country>Taiwan</country></aff></contrib-group><contrib-group><contrib id="editor-1" contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Althaus</surname><given-names>Christian</given-names></name></contrib></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2015-12-17"><day>17</day><month>12</month><year iso-8601-date="2015">2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>3</volume><elocation-id>e1505</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2015-08-18"><day>18</day><month>8</month><year iso-8601-date="2015">2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2015-11-24"><day>24</day><month>11</month><year iso-8601-date="2015">2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>©2015 Hsieh</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Hsieh</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://peerj.com/articles/1505"></self-uri><abstract><p><bold>Background</bold>. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases.</p><p><bold>Methods</bold>. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control.</p><p><bold>Results</bold>. The estimated outbreak turning point of <italic>t<sub>i</sub></italic> = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6–24.0]), or 23–24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3–4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3.</p><p><bold>Discussion and Conclusion</bold>. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27–29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd><kwd>South Korea</kwd><kwd>MERS-CoV</kwd><kwd>Nosocomial infection</kwd><kwd>Outbreak turning point</kwd><kwd>Mathematical model</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group id="fund-1"><funding-source>Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)</funding-source><award-id>103-2314-B-039-010-MY3</award-id><award-id>103-2115-M-039-002-MY2</award-id></award-group><funding-statement>YHH is funded by Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) grants (103-2314-B-039-010-MY3 and 103-2115-M-039-002-MY2). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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