Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
Identifieur interne : 000075 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000074; suivant : 000076Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
Auteurs : Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon] ; Natalie M. Linton [Japon] ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov [Japon]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections was estimated from a total of 28 infector-infectee pairs. The median serial interval is shorter than the median incubation period, suggesting a substantial proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. A short serial interval makes it difficult to trace contacts due to the rapid turnover of case generations.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060
PubMed: 32145466
PubMed Central: 7128842
Affiliations:
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Linton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32145466</idno><idno type="pmc">7128842</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128842</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7128842</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001090</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001090</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001090</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001090</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000075</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000075</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections</title><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>060-8638</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">The serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections was estimated from a total of 28 infector-infectee pairs.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">The median serial interval is shorter than the median incubation period, suggesting a substantial proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">A short serial interval makes it difficult to trace contacts due to the rapid turnover of case generations.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int. J. Infect. Dis</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1201-9712</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1878-3511</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32145466</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7128842</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1201-9712(20)30119-3</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Nishiura</surname><given-names>Hiroshi</given-names></name><email>nishiurah@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Linton</surname><given-names>Natalie M.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Akhmetzhanov</surname><given-names>Andrei R.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan</aff><aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author at: Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan. <email>nishiurah@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>4</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>4</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><history><date date-type="received"><day>14</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>25</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder></copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0005"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">The serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections was estimated from a total of 28 infector-infectee pairs.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">The median serial interval is shorter than the median incubation period, suggesting a substantial proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">A short serial interval makes it difficult to trace contacts due to the rapid turnover of case generations.</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><abstract id="abs0010"><sec><title>Objective</title><p>To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (<italic>n</italic> = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (<italic>n</italic> = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group id="kwd0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>Coronavirus</kwd><kwd>Outbreak</kwd><kwd>Illness onset</kwd><kwd>Generation time</kwd><kwd>Statistical model</kwd><kwd>Epidemiology</kwd><kwd>Viruses</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country></list><tree><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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