SrasV1, PascalFrancis, Corpus, bibRecord, 000372

The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model

Identifieur interne : 000372 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000371; suivant : 000373

The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model

Auteurs : ZHIBIN ZHANG

Source :

Ecological modelling [ 0304-3800 ] ; 2007.

RBID : Pascal:07-0235876

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Pullulation, Chine, Modèle mathématique, Aigu, Syndrome, Epidémiologie, Reproduction.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Acute, China, Epidemiology, Mathematical model, Outbreak, Reproduction, Syndrome.

Abstract

Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number R₀of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Notice en format standard (ISO 2709)

Pour connaître la documentation sur le format Inist Standard.

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A11	`01`	`1`		`@1 ZHIBIN ZHANG`
A14	`01`			`@1 State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 25 Beisihuan Xilu @2 Haidian District, Beijing 100080 @3 CHN @Z 1 aut.`
A20				`@1 420-426`
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C01	`01`		`ENG`	@0 Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number R₀of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.
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Format Inist (serveur)

NO :	PASCAL 07-0235876 INIST
ET :	The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model
AU :	ZHIBIN ZHANG
AF :	State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 25 Beisihuan Xilu/Haidian District, Beijing 100080/Chine (1 aut.)
DT :	Publication en série; Papier de recherche; Niveau analytique
SO :	Ecological modelling; ISSN 0304-3800; Coden ECMODT; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 204; No. 3-4; Pp. 420-426; Bibl. 3/4 p.
LA :	Anglais
EA :	Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number R₀of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.
CC :	002A14A02
FD :	Pullulation; Chine; Modèle mathématique; Aigu; Syndrome; Epidémiologie; Reproduction
FG :	Asie
ED :	Outbreak; China; Mathematical model; Acute; Syndrome; Epidemiology; Reproduction
EG :	Asia
SD :	Pululación; China; Modelo matemático; Agudo; Síndrome; Epidemiología; Reproducción
LO :	INIST-15732.354000149451180130
ID :	07-0235876

Links to Exploration step

Pascal:07-0235876

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The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model

The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Notice en format standard (ISO 2709)

Format Inist (serveur)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri