Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise
Identifieur interne : 003F84 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 003F83; suivant : 003F85Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise
Auteurs : Michael Smithson ; Yakov Ben-HaimSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7169093
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Risk Anal</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Risk Anal</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RISA</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Risk Analysis</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0272-4332</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1539-6924</issn><publisher><publisher-name>John Wiley and Sons Inc.</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Hoboken</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7169093</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/risa.12397</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">RISA12397</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="overline"><subject>Perspective</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Perspective</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Smithson and Ben‐Haim</alt-title><alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">Reasoned Decision Making Without Math?</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib id="risa12397-cr-0001" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Smithson</surname><given-names>Michael</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="risa12397-aff-0001"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib id="risa12397-cr-0002" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Ben‐Haim</surname><given-names>Yakov</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="risa12397-aff-0002"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="risa12397-aff-0001"><label><sup>1</sup></label><named-content content-type="organisation-division">Department of Psychology</named-content><institution>Australian National University Canberra</institution><country country="AU">Australia</country></aff><aff id="risa12397-aff-0002"><label><sup>2</sup></label><named-content content-type="organisation-division">Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics, Technion—</named-content><institution>Israel Institute of Technology</institution><named-content content-type="street">Haifa 32000</named-content><country country="IL">Israel</country></aff><author-notes><corresp id="correspondenceTo"><label>*</label>Address correspondence to Yakov Ben‐Haim, Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel; <email>yakov@technion.ac.il</email>.</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>10</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>5</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>35</volume><issue>10</issue><issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/risa.2015.35.issue-10</issue-id><fpage>1911</fpage><lpage>1918</lpage><permissions><pmc-comment> © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis </pmc-comment>
<copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">© 2015 Society for Risk Analysis</copyright-statement><license><license-p>This article is being made freely available through PubMed Central as part of the COVID-19 public health emergency response. It can be used for unrestricted research re-use and analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source, for the duration of the public health emergency.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="file:RISA-35-1911.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-generated"><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0001">Adaptability</kwd><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0002">ignorance</kwd><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0003">info‐gap</kwd><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0004">robustness</kwd><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0005">surprise</kwd><kwd id="risa12397-kwd-0006">uncertainty</kwd></kwd-group><counts><page-count count="8"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>source-schema-version-number</meta-name><meta-value>2.0</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta><meta-name>cover-date</meta-name><meta-value>October 2015</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta><meta-name>details-of-publishers-convertor</meta-name><meta-value>Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.8.0 mode:remove_FC converted:15.04.2020</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Ben Aim, Yakov" sort="Ben Aim, Yakov" uniqKey="Ben Aim Y" first="Yakov" last="Ben-Haim">Yakov Ben-Haim</name><name sortKey="Smithson, Michael" sort="Smithson, Michael" uniqKey="Smithson M" first="Michael" last="Smithson">Michael Smithson</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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