Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
Identifieur interne : 003D10 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 003D09; suivant : 003D11Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
Auteurs : Marco D'Arienzo [Italie] ; Angela Coniglio [Italie]Source :
- Biosafety and Health [ 2590-0536 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
As of March 12th Italy has the largest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Europe as well as outside China. The infections, first limited in Northern Italy, have eventually spread to all other regions. When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.bsheal.2020.03.004
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7148916
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy</title><author><name sortKey="D Arienzo, Marco" sort="D Arienzo, Marco" uniqKey="D Arienzo M" first="Marco" last="D'Arienzo">Marco D'Arienzo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Rome 000123, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Rome 000123</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coniglio, Angela" sort="Coniglio, Angela" uniqKey="Coniglio A" first="Angela" last="Coniglio">Angela Coniglio</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">San Giovanni Calibita Hospital - Fatebenefratelli, Rome 00186, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>San Giovanni Calibita Hospital - Fatebenefratelli, Rome 00186</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmc">7148916</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7148916</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7148916</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.bsheal.2020.03.004</idno><idno type="pmid">NONE</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000936</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000936</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000936</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000936</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000384</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000384</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">003D10</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy</title><author><name sortKey="D Arienzo, Marco" sort="D Arienzo, Marco" uniqKey="D Arienzo M" first="Marco" last="D'Arienzo">Marco D'Arienzo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Rome 000123, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Rome 000123</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coniglio, Angela" sort="Coniglio, Angela" uniqKey="Coniglio A" first="Angela" last="Coniglio">Angela Coniglio</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">San Giovanni Calibita Hospital - Fatebenefratelli, Rome 00186, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>San Giovanni Calibita Hospital - Fatebenefratelli, Rome 00186</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biosafety and Health</title><idno type="ISSN">2590-0536</idno><idno type="eISSN">2590-0536</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>As of March 12th Italy has the largest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Europe as well as outside China. The infections, first limited in Northern Italy, have eventually spread to all other regions. When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, i.e. the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. Previous work has been limited to the assessment of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> analyzing data from the Wuhan region or Mainland China. In the present study the <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> value for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed analyzing data derived from the early phase of the outbreak in Italy. In particular, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed in 9 cities (those with the largest number of infections) fitting the well-established SIR-model to available data in the interval between February 25–March 12, 2020. The findings of this study suggest that <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values associated with the Italian outbreak may range from 2.43 to 3.10, confirming previous evidence in the literature reporting similar <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values for SARS-CoV-2.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fanelli, D" uniqKey="Fanelli D">D. Fanelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Piazza, F" uniqKey="Piazza F">F. Piazza</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Q" uniqKey="Lin Q">Q. Lin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, J" uniqKey="Ran J">J. Ran</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Muniz Rodriguez, K" uniqKey="Muniz Rodriguez K">K. Muniz-Rodriguez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cheung, C H" uniqKey="Cheung C">C.H. Cheung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lauer, S" uniqKey="Lauer S">S. Lauer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grantz, K K" uniqKey="Grantz K">K.K. Grantz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bi, Q" uniqKey="Bi Q">Q. Bi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="brief-report"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-title-group><journal-title>Biosafety and Health</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2590-0536</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2590-0536</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Chinese Medical Association Publishing House. Published by Elsevier B.V. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7148916</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S2590-0536(20)30041-0</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.bsheal.2020.03.004</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0005"><name><surname>D'Arienzo</surname><given-names>Marco</given-names></name><email>marco.darienzo@enea.it</email><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="cr0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0010"><name><surname>Coniglio</surname><given-names>Angela</given-names></name><xref rid="af0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af0005"><label>a</label>ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Rome 000123, Italy</aff><aff id="af0010"><label>b</label>San Giovanni Calibita Hospital - Fatebenefratelli, Rome 00186, Italy</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cr0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author at: ENEA, National Institute of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, Via Anguillarese 301, Rome 000123, Italy. <email>marco.darienzo@enea.it</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>2</day><month>4</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>2</day><month>4</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><elocation-id></elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>12</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>31</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>31</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 Chinese Medical Association Publishing House. Published by Elsevier B.V. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder></copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="ab0005"><p>As of March 12th Italy has the largest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Europe as well as outside China. The infections, first limited in Northern Italy, have eventually spread to all other regions. When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, i.e. the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. Previous work has been limited to the assessment of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> analyzing data from the Wuhan region or Mainland China. In the present study the <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> value for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed analyzing data derived from the early phase of the outbreak in Italy. In particular, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed in 9 cities (those with the largest number of infections) fitting the well-established SIR-model to available data in the interval between February 25–March 12, 2020. The findings of this study suggest that <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values associated with the Italian outbreak may range from 2.43 to 3.10, confirming previous evidence in the literature reporting similar <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values for SARS-CoV-2.</p></abstract><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="ab0010"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="l0005"><list-item id="li0005"><label>•</label><p id="p0005">The SIR model was applied to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy</p></list-item><list-item id="li0010"><label>•</label><p id="p0010">The SIR model fits well the reported COVID-19 cases in Italy</p></list-item><list-item id="li0015"><label>•</label><p id="p0015">We assessed the basic reproduction number R0</p></list-item><list-item id="li0020"><label>•</label><p id="p0020">We compared our results with previous literature findings and found that the basic reproduction number associated with the Italian outbreak may range from 2.43 to 3.10</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><kwd-group id="ks0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>2019nCoV outbreak</kwd><kwd>SIR model</kwd><kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Italie</li></country><region><li>Latium</li></region><settlement><li>Rome</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Italie"><region name="Latium"><name sortKey="D Arienzo, Marco" sort="D Arienzo, Marco" uniqKey="D Arienzo M" first="Marco" last="D'Arienzo">Marco D'Arienzo</name></region><name sortKey="Coniglio, Angela" sort="Coniglio, Angela" uniqKey="Coniglio A" first="Angela" last="Coniglio">Angela Coniglio</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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