Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households
Identifieur interne : 001A33 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001A32; suivant : 001A34Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households
Auteurs : Michiel Van Boven [Pays-Bas] ; Marion Koopmans [Pays-Bas] ; Mirna Du Ry Van Beest Holle [Pays-Bas] ; Adam Meijer [Pays-Bas] ; Don Klinkenberg [Pays-Bas] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Hans J. A. P. Heesterbeek [Pays-Bas]Source :
- PLoS Computational Biology [ 1553-734X ] ; 2007.
Abstract
Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145
PubMed: 17676981
PubMed Central: 1933478
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PMC:1933478Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.</p>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS Comput Biol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS Comput. Biol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">pcbi</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plcb</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">ploscomp</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS Computational Biology</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">1553-734X</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1553-7358</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17676981</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">1933478</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">07-PLCB-RA-0144R2</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="sici">plcb-03-07-21</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline"><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject>
<subject>Public Health and Epidemiology</subject>
<subject>Virology</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="System Taxonomy"><subject>Viruses</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Household Transmission of Emerging Pathogens</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>van Boven</surname>
<given-names>Michiel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Koopmans</surname>
<given-names>Marion</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Du Ry van Beest Holle</surname>
<given-names>Mirna</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Meijer</surname>
<given-names>Adam</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Klinkenberg</surname>
<given-names>Don</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Donnelly</surname>
<given-names>Christl A</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Heesterbeek</surname>
<given-names>Hans (J. A. P.)</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>
Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Lelystad, The Netherlands</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>
Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</aff>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Galvani</surname>
<given-names>Alison P</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1">Yale University, United States of America</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>michiel.vanboven@wur.nl</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>7</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>27</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epreprint"><day>8</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<issue>7</issue>
<elocation-id>e145</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>26</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>6</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement> © 2007 van Boven et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2007</copyright-year>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<pmc-comment>Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households </pmc-comment>
<abstract><p>Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.</p>
</abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="summary"><title>Author Summary</title>
<sec id="st1"><title></title>
<p>Recent outbreaks of emerging diseases such as SARS and H5N1 avian influenza have underlined the fact that animal pathogens may acquire the ability to spread efficiently in humans. Monitoring the transmissibility of pathogens from the animal reservoir in humans is key for early detection of epidemic spread, and for effective control. Here we have used data from a small but well-defined study of H7N7 avian influenza virus transmission in human households to estimate the transmissibility of H7N7 avian influenza in humans living in close contact. The analyses make use of household final size data (i.e., the number of individuals in the household who are ultimately infected), which, for many pathogens, are easily collected. For the H7N7 data, the analyses indicate that the transmission chain in humans may well have extended beyond the first generation of infections in humans, and that less than half of the household infections could have been prevented by antiviral prophylaxis. Our method of analysis provides a rapid and generally applicable tool that can be used to monitor emerging human transmissibility of pathogens from the animal reservoir.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="9"></page-count>
</counts>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>citation</meta-name>
<meta-value>van Boven M, Koopmans M, Du Ry van Beest Holle M, Meijer A, Klinkenberg D, et al. (2007) Detecting emerging transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households. PLoS Comput Biol 3(7): e145. doi:<ext-link ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145">10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145</ext-link>
</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Pays-Bas</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
</country>
<region><li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Grand Londres</li>
<li>Utrecht (province)</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Londres</li>
<li>Utrecht</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université d'Utrecht</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree><country name="Pays-Bas"><region name="Utrecht (province)"><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" sort="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" uniqKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle M" first="Mirna" last="Du Ry Van Beest Holle">Mirna Du Ry Van Beest Holle</name>
<name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" sort="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek H" first="Hans J. A. P." last="Heesterbeek">Hans J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name>
<name sortKey="Klinkenberg, Don" sort="Klinkenberg, Don" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D" first="Don" last="Klinkenberg">Don Klinkenberg</name>
<name sortKey="Koopmans, Marion" sort="Koopmans, Marion" uniqKey="Koopmans M" first="Marion" last="Koopmans">Marion Koopmans</name>
<name sortKey="Meijer, Adam" sort="Meijer, Adam" uniqKey="Meijer A" first="Adam" last="Meijer">Adam Meijer</name>
<name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name>
</country>
<country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A" last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name>
</region>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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