Influence of meteorological factors and air pollution on the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome
Identifieur interne : 001876 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001875; suivant : 001877Influence of meteorological factors and air pollution on the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome
Auteurs : Quan-Cai Cai [République populaire de Chine] ; Jian Lu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qin-Feng Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qiang Guo [République populaire de Chine] ; De-Zhong Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qing-Wen Sun [République populaire de Chine] ; Hua Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Gen-Ming Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qing-Wu Jiang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Public Health [ 0033-3506 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
To understand the association between the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and meteorological factors and air pollution.
An ecological study was conducted.
Three hundred and fifty primary probable SARS cases diagnosed in mainland China between 1 January and 31 May 2003, and their 6727 close contacts during the period of their clinical symptoms before admission, were included in this study. Of the 6727 close contacts, 135 (2.0%) later developed clinical symptoms and were diagnosed as probable SARS cases. The daily meteorological data and daily air pollution data during the same SARS outbreak period in mainland China were used in the data analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the association between the secondary attack rate of SARS and meteorological factors and air pollution.
In univariate analyses, daily average temperature (DAT), daily average air pressure (DAAP), and daily average relative humidity (DARH) were inversely associated with secondary attack rate (
Our results suggest that the SARS outbreak was significantly associated with DAWV, and that DAAP, DARH and DHS may also have influenced the SARS outbreak to some extent. However, because of ecological fallacy and uncontrolled confounding effects that may have biased the results, the association between the SARS outbreak and these meteorological factors and air pollution deserve further investigation.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2006.09.023
PubMed: 17307207
PubMed Central: 7118752
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<author><name sortKey="Jiang, Qing Wu" sort="Jiang, Qing Wu" uniqKey="Jiang Q" first="Qing-Wu" last="Jiang">Qing-Wu Jiang</name>
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<series><title level="j">Public Health</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0033-3506</idno>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title>
<sec><title>Objectives</title>
<p>To understand the association between the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and meteorological factors and air pollution.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Study design</title>
<p>An ecological study was conducted.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Three hundred and fifty primary probable SARS cases diagnosed in mainland China between 1 January and 31 May 2003, and their 6727 close contacts during the period of their clinical symptoms before admission, were included in this study. Of the 6727 close contacts, 135 (2.0%) later developed clinical symptoms and were diagnosed as probable SARS cases. The daily meteorological data and daily air pollution data during the same SARS outbreak period in mainland China were used in the data analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the association between the secondary attack rate of SARS and meteorological factors and air pollution.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>In univariate analyses, daily average temperature (DAT), daily average air pressure (DAAP), and daily average relative humidity (DARH) were inversely associated with secondary attack rate (<italic>P</italic>
<0.001); a significant positive association was found for daily hours of sunshine (DHS) (<italic>P</italic>
<0.001). In multivariate analyses, factors associated with secondary attack rate were DAAP (odds ratio (OR)=0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42, 0.66), DARH (OR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.53, 1.00), and daily average wind velocity (DAWV; OR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.96). Adjustment for the onset time of a primary case led to little change in the results. In addition, in Hebei Province, a major affected area in China, only DAWV (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.72) was a significant predictor of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case. In Inner Mongolia, another major affected area in China, DAWV (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.94) and DHS (OR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.81) were significant predictors of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Our results suggest that the SARS outbreak was significantly associated with DAWV, and that DAAP, DARH and DHS may also have influenced the SARS outbreak to some extent. However, because of ecological fallacy and uncontrolled confounding effects that may have biased the results, the association between the SARS outbreak and these meteorological factors and air pollution deserve further investigation.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huang, J J" uniqKey="Huang J">J.J. Huang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pi, G H" uniqKey="Pi G">G.H. Pi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, S X" uniqKey="Zhang S">S.X. Zhang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Darnella, M" uniqKey="Darnella M">M. Darnella</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Subbaraob, K" uniqKey="Subbaraob K">K. Subbaraob</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Feinstonea, S M" uniqKey="Feinstonea S">S.M. Feinstonea</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Taylora, D R" uniqKey="Taylora D">D.R. Taylora</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lin, K" uniqKey="Lin K">K. Lin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fong, D Y" uniqKey="Fong D">D.Y. Fong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhu, B" uniqKey="Zhu B">B. Zhu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Karlberg, J" uniqKey="Karlberg J">J. Karlberg</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Public Health</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Public Health</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Public Health</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0033-3506</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1476-5616</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17307207</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7118752</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0033-3506(06)00328-3</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.puhe.2006.09.023</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Influence of meteorological factors and air pollution on the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cai</surname>
<given-names>Quan-Cai</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lu</surname>
<given-names>Jian</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff">c</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Qin-Feng</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff4" ref-type="aff">d</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Guo</surname>
<given-names>Qiang</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff5" ref-type="aff">e</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>De-Zhong</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff6" ref-type="aff">f</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>Qing-Wen</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff7" ref-type="aff">g</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Hua</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff8" ref-type="aff">h</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>Gen-Ming</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jiang</surname>
<given-names>Qing-Wu</given-names>
</name>
<email>jiangqw@shmu.edu.cn</email>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, Shanghai 200032, China</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>
Department of Epidemiology, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><label>c</label>
Department of Statistics, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><label>d</label>
Department of Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff5"><label>e</label>
Department of Training, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff6"><label>f</label>
Department of Epidemiology, Fourth Military Medical University, Xian, China</aff>
<aff id="aff7"><label>g</label>
Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<aff id="aff8"><label>h</label>
Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>
Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 21 54237435; fax: +86 21 64037350. <email>jiangqw@shmu.edu.cn</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>20</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>4</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>121</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>258</fpage>
<lpage>265</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>25</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2004</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>13</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2006</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2006</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2007 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2007</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>The Royal Institute of Public Health</copyright-holder>
<license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract><title>Summary</title>
<sec><title>Objectives</title>
<p>To understand the association between the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and meteorological factors and air pollution.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Study design</title>
<p>An ecological study was conducted.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Three hundred and fifty primary probable SARS cases diagnosed in mainland China between 1 January and 31 May 2003, and their 6727 close contacts during the period of their clinical symptoms before admission, were included in this study. Of the 6727 close contacts, 135 (2.0%) later developed clinical symptoms and were diagnosed as probable SARS cases. The daily meteorological data and daily air pollution data during the same SARS outbreak period in mainland China were used in the data analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the association between the secondary attack rate of SARS and meteorological factors and air pollution.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>In univariate analyses, daily average temperature (DAT), daily average air pressure (DAAP), and daily average relative humidity (DARH) were inversely associated with secondary attack rate (<italic>P</italic>
<0.001); a significant positive association was found for daily hours of sunshine (DHS) (<italic>P</italic>
<0.001). In multivariate analyses, factors associated with secondary attack rate were DAAP (odds ratio (OR)=0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42, 0.66), DARH (OR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.53, 1.00), and daily average wind velocity (DAWV; OR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.96). Adjustment for the onset time of a primary case led to little change in the results. In addition, in Hebei Province, a major affected area in China, only DAWV (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.72) was a significant predictor of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case. In Inner Mongolia, another major affected area in China, DAWV (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.94) and DHS (OR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.81) were significant predictors of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Our results suggest that the SARS outbreak was significantly associated with DAWV, and that DAAP, DARH and DHS may also have influenced the SARS outbreak to some extent. However, because of ecological fallacy and uncontrolled confounding effects that may have biased the results, the association between the SARS outbreak and these meteorological factors and air pollution deserve further investigation.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Air pollution index (API)</kwd>
<kwd>Ecological study</kwd>
<kwd>Logistic model</kwd>
<kwd>Meteorological factors</kwd>
<kwd>Secondary attack rate</kwd>
<kwd>Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cai, Quan Cai" sort="Cai, Quan Cai" uniqKey="Cai Q" first="Quan-Cai" last="Cai">Quan-Cai Cai</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Cai, Quan Cai" sort="Cai, Quan Cai" uniqKey="Cai Q" first="Quan-Cai" last="Cai">Quan-Cai Cai</name>
<name sortKey="Guo, Qiang" sort="Guo, Qiang" uniqKey="Guo Q" first="Qiang" last="Guo">Qiang Guo</name>
<name sortKey="Jiang, Qing Wu" sort="Jiang, Qing Wu" uniqKey="Jiang Q" first="Qing-Wu" last="Jiang">Qing-Wu Jiang</name>
<name sortKey="Lu, Jian" sort="Lu, Jian" uniqKey="Lu J" first="Jian" last="Lu">Jian Lu</name>
<name sortKey="Sun, Qing Wen" sort="Sun, Qing Wen" uniqKey="Sun Q" first="Qing-Wen" last="Sun">Qing-Wen Sun</name>
<name sortKey="Xu, De Zhong" sort="Xu, De Zhong" uniqKey="Xu D" first="De-Zhong" last="Xu">De-Zhong Xu</name>
<name sortKey="Xu, Qin Feng" sort="Xu, Qin Feng" uniqKey="Xu Q" first="Qin-Feng" last="Xu">Qin-Feng Xu</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Hua" sort="Yang, Hua" uniqKey="Yang H" first="Hua" last="Yang">Hua Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Zhao, Gen Ming" sort="Zhao, Gen Ming" uniqKey="Zhao G" first="Gen-Ming" last="Zhao">Gen-Ming Zhao</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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