Predicting Super Spreading Events during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore
Identifieur interne : 000A97 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000A96; suivant : 000A98Predicting Super Spreading Events during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore
Auteurs : Yuguo Li ; Ignatius T. S. Yu ; Pengcheng Xu ; J. H. W. Lee ; Tze Wai Wong ; Peng Lim Ooi ; Adrian C. SleighSource :
- American Journal of Epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2004.
Abstract
One of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Here, the authors report the results of identifying the occurrence of SSEs in the Hong Kong and Singapore epidemics using mathematical and statistical analysis. Their predicted occurrence of SSEs agreed well with the reported occurrence of all seven super spreaders in the two cities. Additional unidentified SSEs were also found to exist. It was found that 71.1% and 74.8% of the infections were attributable to SSEs in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. There also seemed to be “synchronized” occurrences of infection peaks in both the community and the hospitals in Hong Kong. The results strongly suggested that the infection did not depend on the total number of symptomatic cases, with only a very small proportion of symptomatic individuals being shown to be infectious (i.e., able to infect other individuals). The authors found that the daily infection rate did not correlate with the daily total number of symptomatic cases but with the daily number of symptomatic cases who were not admitted to a hospital within 4 days of the onset of symptoms.
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh273
PubMed: 15466494
PubMed Central: 7109976
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Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Tze Wai" sort="Wong, Tze Wai" uniqKey="Wong T" first="Tze Wai" last="Wong">Tze Wai Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ooi, Peng Lim" sort="Ooi, Peng Lim" uniqKey="Ooi P" first="Peng Lim" last="Ooi">Peng Lim Ooi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sleigh, Adrian C" sort="Sleigh, Adrian C" uniqKey="Sleigh A" first="Adrian C." last="Sleigh">Adrian C. 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S." last="Yu">Ignatius T. S. Yu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Pengcheng" sort="Xu, Pengcheng" uniqKey="Xu P" first="Pengcheng" last="Xu">Pengcheng Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, J H W" sort="Lee, J H W" uniqKey="Lee J" first="J. H. W." last="Lee">J. H. W. Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Tze Wai" sort="Wong, Tze Wai" uniqKey="Wong T" first="Tze Wai" last="Wong">Tze Wai Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ooi, Peng Lim" sort="Ooi, Peng Lim" uniqKey="Ooi P" first="Peng Lim" last="Ooi">Peng Lim Ooi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sleigh, Adrian C" sort="Sleigh, Adrian C" uniqKey="Sleigh A" first="Adrian C." last="Sleigh">Adrian C. Sleigh</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American Journal of Epidemiology</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-6256</idno><imprint><date when="2004">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Abstract</title><p> One of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Here, the authors report the results of identifying the occurrence of SSEs in the Hong Kong and Singapore epidemics using mathematical and statistical analysis. Their predicted occurrence of SSEs agreed well with the reported occurrence of all seven super spreaders in the two cities. Additional unidentified SSEs were also found to exist. It was found that 71.1% and 74.8% of the infections were attributable to SSEs in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. There also seemed to be “synchronized” occurrences of infection peaks in both the community and the hospitals in Hong Kong. The results strongly suggested that the infection did not depend on the total number of symptomatic cases, with only a very small proportion of symptomatic individuals being shown to be infectious (i.e., able to infect other individuals). The authors found that the daily infection rate did not correlate with the daily total number of symptomatic cases but with the daily number of symptomatic cases who were not admitted to a hospital within 4 days of the onset of symptoms.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Am J Epidemiol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Am. J. Epidemiol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">amjepid</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">aje</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>American Journal of Epidemiology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0002-9262</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1476-6256</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Oxford University Press</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">15466494</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7109976</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="other">kwh273</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwh273</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Special Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Predicting Super Spreading Events during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Yuguo</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yu</surname><given-names>Ignatius T. S.</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Pengcheng</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname><given-names>J. H. W.</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wong</surname><given-names>Tze Wai</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ooi</surname><given-names>Peng Lim</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sleigh</surname><given-names>Adrian C.</given-names></name></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="CJAGFEGD"><label>1</label> Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China.</aff><aff id="CJADFBIF"><label>2</label> Department of Community and Family Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China.</aff><aff id="CJADDIAB"><label>3</label> Institute of Applied Mathematics, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.</aff><aff id="CJAJBEHA"><label>4</label> Department of Civil Engineering, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China.</aff><aff id="CJAEHGEB"><label>5</label> Disease Control Branch, Ministry of Health, Singapore.</aff><aff id="CJACFBDH"><label>6</label> Department of Building, National University of Singapore, Singapore.</aff><aff id="CJAEACIC"><label>7</label> National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.</aff><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>15</day><month>10</month><year>2004</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub" iso-8601-date="2004-10-15"><day>15</day><month>10</month><year>2004</year></pub-date><volume>160</volume><issue>8</issue><fpage>719</fpage><lpage>728</lpage><permissions><copyright-year>2004</copyright-year><license><license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="kwh273.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><title>Abstract</title><p> One of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Here, the authors report the results of identifying the occurrence of SSEs in the Hong Kong and Singapore epidemics using mathematical and statistical analysis. Their predicted occurrence of SSEs agreed well with the reported occurrence of all seven super spreaders in the two cities. Additional unidentified SSEs were also found to exist. It was found that 71.1% and 74.8% of the infections were attributable to SSEs in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. There also seemed to be “synchronized” occurrences of infection peaks in both the community and the hospitals in Hong Kong. The results strongly suggested that the infection did not depend on the total number of symptomatic cases, with only a very small proportion of symptomatic individuals being shown to be infectious (i.e., able to infect other individuals). The authors found that the daily infection rate did not correlate with the daily total number of symptomatic cases but with the daily number of symptomatic cases who were not admitted to a hospital within 4 days of the onset of symptoms.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="KWD"><kwd>disease outbreaks; disease transmission; infection; severe acute respiratory syndrome </kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group kwd-group-type="ABR"><kwd>Abbreviations: SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome; SSE, super spreading event.</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta><notes><p>Received for publication February 6, 2004; accepted for publication April 20, 2004.</p></notes></front></pmc><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Lee, J H W" sort="Lee, J H W" uniqKey="Lee J" first="J. H. W." last="Lee">J. H. W. Lee</name><name sortKey="Li, Yuguo" sort="Li, Yuguo" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yuguo" last="Li">Yuguo Li</name><name sortKey="Ooi, Peng Lim" sort="Ooi, Peng Lim" uniqKey="Ooi P" first="Peng Lim" last="Ooi">Peng Lim Ooi</name><name sortKey="Sleigh, Adrian C" sort="Sleigh, Adrian C" uniqKey="Sleigh A" first="Adrian C." last="Sleigh">Adrian C. Sleigh</name><name sortKey="Wong, Tze Wai" sort="Wong, Tze Wai" uniqKey="Wong T" first="Tze Wai" last="Wong">Tze Wai Wong</name><name sortKey="Xu, Pengcheng" sort="Xu, Pengcheng" uniqKey="Xu P" first="Pengcheng" last="Xu">Pengcheng Xu</name><name sortKey="Yu, Ignatius T S" sort="Yu, Ignatius T S" uniqKey="Yu I" first="Ignatius T. S." last="Yu">Ignatius T. S. Yu</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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