REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS
Identifieur interne : 001F56 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 001F55; suivant : 001F57REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS
Auteurs : E. Goldstein ; K. Paur ; C. Fraser [Royaume-Uni] ; E. Kenah [États-Unis] ; J. Wallinga [Pays-Bas] ; M. LipsitchSource :
- Mathematical biosciences [ 0025-5564 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-household reproductive number, leaky vaccine-associated reproductive numbers, perfect vaccine reproductive number, growth rate reproductive number, and the individual reproductive number. Each of those carries different information about the transmission dynamics and the required control measures, and often some of those can be estimated from the data while others cannot. Simulations have shown that under certain scenarios there is an ordering for those reproductive numbers. We have proven a number of ordering inequalities under general assumptions about the individual infectiousness profiles. Those inequalities allow, for instance, to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and other control measures without knowing the various transmission parameters in the models. Along the way, we’ve also shown that in choosing between increasing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage levels by the same factor, preference should go to efficacy.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2009.06.002
PubMed: 19559715
PubMed Central: 2731010
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000C09
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000C09
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000C86
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :001F56
Links to Exploration step
PMC:2731010Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS</title>
<author><name sortKey="Goldstein, E" sort="Goldstein, E" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="E." last="Goldstein">E. Goldstein</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1"> Harvard School of Public Health</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Paur, K" sort="Paur, K" uniqKey="Paur K" first="K." last="Paur">K. Paur</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2"> Harvard University</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" sort="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="C." last="Fraser">C. Fraser</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="A3"> Imperial College, London</nlm:aff>
<country>Royaume-Uni</country>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:orgArea> Imperial College</wicri:orgArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kenah, E" sort="Kenah, E" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="E." last="Kenah">E. Kenah</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A4"> University of Washington, Seattle</nlm:aff>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" sort="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="J." last="Wallinga">J. Wallinga</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A5"> RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea> RIVM, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="A6"> University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea> University Medical Center, Utrecht</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement>
<region nuts="2" type="province">Utrecht (province)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" sort="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="M." last="Lipsitch">M. Lipsitch</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1"> Harvard School of Public Health</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">19559715</idno>
<idno type="pmc">2731010</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2731010</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:2731010</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/j.mbs.2009.06.002</idno>
<date when="2009">2009</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C09</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C09</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C09</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C09</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000C86</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000C86</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001F56</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001F56</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS</title>
<author><name sortKey="Goldstein, E" sort="Goldstein, E" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="E." last="Goldstein">E. Goldstein</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1"> Harvard School of Public Health</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Paur, K" sort="Paur, K" uniqKey="Paur K" first="K." last="Paur">K. Paur</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2"> Harvard University</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" sort="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="C." last="Fraser">C. Fraser</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="A3"> Imperial College, London</nlm:aff>
<country>Royaume-Uni</country>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:orgArea> Imperial College</wicri:orgArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kenah, E" sort="Kenah, E" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="E." last="Kenah">E. Kenah</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A4"> University of Washington, Seattle</nlm:aff>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" sort="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="J." last="Wallinga">J. Wallinga</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="A5"> RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea> RIVM, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="A6"> University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea> University Medical Center, Utrecht</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement>
<region nuts="2" type="province">Utrecht (province)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" sort="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="M." last="Lipsitch">M. Lipsitch</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1"> Harvard School of Public Health</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Mathematical biosciences</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0025-5564</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1879-3134</idno>
<imprint><date when="2009">2009</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P2">Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-household reproductive number, leaky vaccine-associated reproductive numbers, perfect vaccine reproductive number, growth rate reproductive number, and the individual reproductive number. Each of those carries different information about the transmission dynamics and the required control measures, and often some of those can be estimated from the data while others cannot. Simulations have shown that under certain scenarios there is an ordering for those reproductive numbers. We have proven a number of ordering inequalities under general assumptions about the individual infectiousness profiles. Those inequalities allow, for instance, to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and other control measures without knowing the various transmission parameters in the models. Along the way, we’ve also shown that in choosing between increasing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage levels by the same factor, preference should go to efficacy.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Ncbi/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001F56 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 001F56 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= Ncbi |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= PMC:2731010 |texte= REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:19559715" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |