An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics
Identifieur interne : 001849 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 001848; suivant : 001850An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics
Auteurs : Alex James [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Jonathan W. Pitchford [Royaume-Uni] ; Michael J. Plank [Nouvelle-Zélande]Source :
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences [ 0962-8452 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Many recent disease outbreaks (e.g. SARS, foot-and-mouth disease) exhibit superspreading, where relatively few individuals cause a large number of secondary cases. Epidemic models have previously treated this as a demographic phenomenon where each individual has an infectivity allocated at random from some distribution. Here, it is shown that superspreading can also be regarded as being caused by environmental variability, where superspreading events (SSEs) occur as a stochastic consequence of the complex network of interactions made by individuals. This interpretation based on SSEs is compared with data and its efficacy in evaluating epidemic control strategies is discussed.
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.0219
PubMed: 17255000
PubMed Central: 2197209
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Pitchford</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Biology and York Centre for Complex Systems Analysis, University of York</institution><addr-line>PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>York YO10 5YW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plank, Michael J" sort="Plank, Michael J" uniqKey="Plank M" first="Michael J" last="Plank">Michael J. Plank</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury</institution><addr-line>Christchurch 8140, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Christchurch 8140</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17255000</idno><idno type="pmc">2197209</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2197209</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2197209</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rspb.2006.0219</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000D13</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000D13</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000D13</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000D13</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">001170</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001170</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001849</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001849</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics</title><author><name sortKey="James, Alex" sort="James, Alex" uniqKey="James A" first="Alex" last="James">Alex James</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury</institution><addr-line>Christchurch 8140, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Christchurch 8140</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pitchford, Jonathan W" sort="Pitchford, Jonathan W" uniqKey="Pitchford J" first="Jonathan W" last="Pitchford">Jonathan W. Pitchford</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Biology and York Centre for Complex Systems Analysis, University of York</institution><addr-line>PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>York YO10 5YW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plank, Michael J" sort="Plank, Michael J" uniqKey="Plank M" first="Michael J" last="Plank">Michael J. Plank</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury</institution><addr-line>Christchurch 8140, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Christchurch 8140</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</title><idno type="ISSN">0962-8452</idno><idno type="eISSN">1471-2954</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Many recent disease outbreaks (e.g. SARS, foot-and-mouth disease) exhibit superspreading, where relatively few individuals cause a large number of secondary cases. Epidemic models have previously treated this as a demographic phenomenon where each individual has an infectivity allocated at random from some distribution. Here, it is shown that superspreading can also be regarded as being caused by environmental variability, where superspreading events (SSEs) occur as a stochastic consequence of the complex network of interactions made by individuals. This interpretation based on SSEs is compared with data and its efficacy in evaluating epidemic control strategies is discussed.</p></div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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