A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China
Identifieur interne : 004226 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 004225; suivant : 004227A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China
Auteurs : Jingsong Yuan [République populaire de Chine] ; Hongmin Yun [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Lan [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Wang [République populaire de Chine, Australie] ; Sheena G. Sullivan [Australie] ; Shaowei Jia [République populaire de Chine] ; Alan H. Bittles [Australie]Source :
- American Journal of Infection Control [ 0196-6553 ] ; 2006.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Chine, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Analyse de régression, Climat, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Humidité, Saisons, Température, Vent.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- transmission : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Climate, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Humidity, Regression Analysis, Seasons, Temperature, Wind.
Abstract
The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9°C (95% CI, 10.7°C to 23.1°C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms−1 (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms−1). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ajic.2005.12.006
PubMed: 16679182
PubMed Central: 7115332
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investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China</title><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Jingsong" sort="Yuan, Jingsong" uniqKey="Yuan J" first="Jingsong" last="Yuan">Jingsong Yuan</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yun, Hongmin" sort="Yun, Hongmin" uniqKey="Yun H" first="Hongmin" last="Yun">Hongmin Yun</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lan, Wei" sort="Lan, Wei" uniqKey="Lan W" first="Wei" last="Lan">Wei Lan</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Wei" sort="Wang, Wei" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Wei" last="Wang">Wei Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Capital University of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Capital University of Medical Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Perth</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sullivan, Sheena G" sort="Sullivan, Sheena G" uniqKey="Sullivan S" first="Sheena G." last="Sullivan">Sheena G. Sullivan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Perth</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jia, Shaowei" sort="Jia, Shaowei" uniqKey="Jia S" first="Shaowei" last="Jia">Shaowei Jia</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bittles, Alan H" sort="Bittles, Alan H" uniqKey="Bittles A" first="Alan H." last="Bittles">Alan H. Bittles</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Human Genetics, Edith Cowan University, Perth</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Perth</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American Journal of Infection Control</title><idno type="ISSN">0196-6553</idno><idno type="eISSN">1527-3296</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Climate</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Humidity</term><term>Regression Analysis</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Temperature</term><term>Wind</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de régression</term><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Climat</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Humidité</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term><term>Température</term><term>Vent</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Humidity</term><term>Regression Analysis</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Temperature</term><term>Wind</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de régression</term><term>Climat</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Humidité</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Température</term><term>Vent</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9°C (95% CI, 10.7°C to 23.1°C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms<sup>−1</sup> (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms<sup>−1</sup>). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si2.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Y</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mn>218.692</mml:mn><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mo>−</mml:mo><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mn>0.698</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mo>−</mml:mo><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mn>2.043</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mspace width="0.25em"></mml:mspace><mml:mn>2.282</mml:mn><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was derived to represent the optimal climatic conditions for the 2003 SARS epidemic. Further investigations in other regions are necessary to verify these results.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Drazen, J M" uniqKey="Drazen J">J.M. Drazen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ksiazek, T G" uniqKey="Ksiazek T">T.G. Ksiazek</name></author><author><name sortKey="Erdman, D" uniqKey="Erdman D">D. Erdman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldsmith, C S" uniqKey="Goldsmith C">C.S. Goldsmith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zaki, S R" uniqKey="Zaki S">S.R. Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peret, T" uniqKey="Peret T">T. Peret</name></author><author><name sortKey="Emery, S" uniqKey="Emery S">S. Emery</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Poutanen, S M" uniqKey="Poutanen S">S.M. Poutanen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Low, D E" uniqKey="Low D">D.E. 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Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, P L" uniqKey="Ho P">P.L. Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ooi, G C" uniqKey="Ooi G">G.C. Ooi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yee, W K" uniqKey="Yee W">W.K. Yee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, T" uniqKey="Wang T">T. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan Yeung, M" uniqKey="Chan Yeung M">M. Chan-Yeung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guan, Y" uniqKey="Guan Y">Y. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zheng, B J" uniqKey="Zheng B">B.J. Zheng</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, Y Q" uniqKey="He Y">Y.Q. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, X L" uniqKey="Liu X">X.L. Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Z X" uniqKey="Zhuang Z">Z.X. Zhuang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cheung, C L" uniqKey="Cheung C">C.L. Cheung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A">A.J. Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yu, I T" uniqKey="Yu I">I.T. Yu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Y" uniqKey="Li Y">Y. Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, T W" uniqKey="Wong T">T.W. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tam, W" uniqKey="Tam W">W. Tam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, A T" uniqKey="Chan A">A.T. Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, J H" uniqKey="Lee J">J.H. Lee</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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