Spatio‐Temporal Attributes of Pandemic and Epidemic Diseases
Identifieur interne : 002755 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 002754; suivant : 002756Spatio‐Temporal Attributes of Pandemic and Epidemic Diseases
Auteurs : Brian H. Bossak ; Mark R. WelfordSource :
- Geography Compass [ 1749-8198 ] ; 2010-08.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Aids case rates, American journal, Attribute, Authors journal compilation, Average number, Black death, Blackwell, Blackwell publishing, Bossak, Broad attributes, Climate change, Communicable diseases, Cultural attributes, Cumulative incidence, Disease attributes, Disease transmission, Droplet, Ebola, Ebola virus, Emergent diseases, Endemic diseases, Environmental persistence, Environmental viability, Epidemic, Epidemic diseases, Epidemic pandemic, Epidemiology, Evolutionary biology, Fatality, Fourth transition, Gender relationships, Geography, Geography compass, Global, Globalized world, Greatest mortality events, Herd immunity, Heterogeneous spaces, High infectivity, High lethality, High number, Hong kong, Incubation period, Infection, Infectious disease, Infectious diseases, Infectivity, International journal, Jump scales, Large amount, Large world, Lethal pandemic, Lethality, Many scientists, Measles, Medical hypotheses, Mortality rate, Other factors, Other words, Pandemic, Pandemic disease, Parasite virulence, Particular strain, Pathogen, Peak mortality, Philosophical transactions, Physical geography, Public health, Reproductive numbers, Research interests, Royal society, Sars, Secondary infections, Serial generation time, Serial generation times, Sexual networks, Small world, Social capital, Social context, Social inequalities, Social science, Socioeconomic processes, Spatial dynamics, Spatiotemporal characteristics, Susceptible individuals, Swine, Theoretical biology, Transmissible, Transmissible pandemics, Transmission dynamics, Variable matrix, Virulence, Wartime evacuation, Welford.
Abstract
Human‐to‐human transmissible pandemics, most notably the Medieval Black Death and Spanish Flu of 1918, have historically resulted in the world’s greatest mortality events. Today, as global transportation networks move people rapidly around the world, there are few barriers to emergent diseases. The mystery of the next great pandemic is not if, but rather when and where it will emerge. Therefore, understanding basic epidemiological attributes of infection, and the highly variable matrix of political, economic, and cultural attributes which affect micro‐scale disease transmission, is now more critical than ever. An emergent disease has the capacity to become a deadly global pandemic if optimized for infectivity, lethality, and environmental persistence. Lacking optimization in any one of these broad attributes can lead to a disease that is technically a pandemic with high infectivity, yet exhibits low lethality, such as Swine Flu (H1N1). In addition, a disease could emerge with very high lethality, yet which does not persist in the environment very long outside of a host, nor kills slow enough to allow for a large amount of secondary infections to occur from contact with a primary infected host, similar to the Ebola virus in Sub‐Saharan Africa. The spatial dynamics of emergent diseases is also affected by socioeconomic processes such as the built environment, migration, poverty, race, ethnicity, and gender relationships. Yet even with so many variables present, super‐spreading events, whereby a few infected individuals secondarily infect a high number of susceptible individuals, can rapidly transmit infectious diseases across very heterogeneous spaces. Today’s global social networks and connectivity are leading toward an enhanced potential for pandemic infections and greater disease virulence as a bio‐evolutionary consequence toward pathogenic success.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00355.x
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Human‐to‐human transmissible pandemics, most notably the Medieval Black Death and Spanish Flu of 1918, have historically resulted in the world’s greatest mortality events. Today, as global transportation networks move people rapidly around the world, there are few barriers to emergent diseases. The mystery of the next great pandemic is not if, but rather when and where it will emerge. Therefore, understanding basic epidemiological attributes of infection, and the highly variable matrix of political, economic, and cultural attributes which affect micro‐scale disease transmission, is now more critical than ever. An emergent disease has the capacity to become a deadly global pandemic if optimized for infectivity, lethality, and environmental persistence. Lacking optimization in any one of these broad attributes can lead to a disease that is technically a pandemic with high infectivity, yet exhibits low lethality, such as Swine Flu (H1N1). In addition, a disease could emerge with very high lethality, yet which does not persist in the environment very long outside of a host, nor kills slow enough to allow for a large amount of secondary infections to occur from contact with a primary infected host, similar to the Ebola virus in Sub‐Saharan Africa. The spatial dynamics of emergent diseases is also affected by socioeconomic processes such as the built environment, migration, poverty, race, ethnicity, and gender relationships. Yet even with so many variables present, super‐spreading events, whereby a few infected individuals secondarily infect a high number of susceptible individuals, can rapidly transmit infectious diseases across very heterogeneous spaces. Today’s global social networks and connectivity are leading toward an enhanced potential for pandemic infections and greater disease virulence as a bio‐evolutionary consequence toward pathogenic success.</div>
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