On the treatment of airline travelers in mathematical models.
Identifieur interne : 002097 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 002096; suivant : 002098On the treatment of airline travelers in mathematical models.
Auteurs : Michael A. Johansson [Porto Rico] ; Neysarí Arana-Vizcarrondo ; Brad J. Biggerstaff ; J Erin Staples ; Nancy Gallagher ; Nina MaranoSource :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2011.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- pathogénicité : Virus de la dengue, Virus du SRAS.
- épidémiologie : Maladies transmissibles.
- Animaux, Facteurs temps, Géographie, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Vecteurs de maladie, Voyage, Véhicules de transport aérien, Épidémies.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Communicable Diseases.
- pathogenicity : Dengue Virus, SARS Virus.
- transmission : Communicable Diseases.
- Aircraft, Animals, Disease Vectors, Epidemics, Geography, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors, Travel.
Abstract
The global spread of infectious diseases is facilitated by the ability of infected humans to travel thousands of miles in short time spans, rapidly transporting pathogens to distant locations. Mathematical models of the actual and potential spread of specific pathogens can assist public health planning in the case of such an event. Models should generally be parsimonious, but must consider all potentially important components of the system to the greatest extent possible. We demonstrate and discuss important assumptions relative to the parameterization and structural treatment of airline travel in mathematical models. Among other findings, we show that the most common structural treatment of travelers leads to underestimation of the speed of spread and that connecting travel is critical to a realistic spread pattern. Models involving travelers can be improved significantly by relatively simple structural changes but also may require further attention to details of parameterization.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022151
PubMed: 21799782
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Johansson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico. mjohansson@cdc.gov</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Porto Rico</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>San Juan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arana Vizcarrondo, Neysari" sort="Arana Vizcarrondo, Neysari" uniqKey="Arana Vizcarrondo N" first="Neysarí" last="Arana-Vizcarrondo">Neysarí Arana-Vizcarrondo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Brad J" sort="Biggerstaff, Brad J" uniqKey="Biggerstaff B" first="Brad J" last="Biggerstaff">Brad J. 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Johansson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico. mjohansson@cdc.gov</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Porto Rico</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>San Juan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arana Vizcarrondo, Neysari" sort="Arana Vizcarrondo, Neysari" uniqKey="Arana Vizcarrondo N" first="Neysarí" last="Arana-Vizcarrondo">Neysarí Arana-Vizcarrondo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Brad J" sort="Biggerstaff, Brad J" uniqKey="Biggerstaff B" first="Brad J" last="Biggerstaff">Brad J. Biggerstaff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Staples, J Erin" sort="Staples, J Erin" uniqKey="Staples J" first="J Erin" last="Staples">J Erin Staples</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gallagher, Nancy" sort="Gallagher, Nancy" uniqKey="Gallagher N" first="Nancy" last="Gallagher">Nancy Gallagher</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marano, Nina" sort="Marano, Nina" uniqKey="Marano N" first="Nina" last="Marano">Nina Marano</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2011" type="published">2011</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aircraft</term><term>Animals</term><term>Communicable Diseases (epidemiology)</term><term>Communicable Diseases (transmission)</term><term>Dengue Virus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Disease Vectors</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Geography</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>SARS Virus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Géographie</term><term>Humains</term><term>Maladies transmissibles (transmission)</term><term>Maladies transmissibles (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Vecteurs de maladie</term><term>Virus de la dengue (pathogénicité)</term><term>Virus du SRAS (pathogénicité)</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Véhicules de transport aérien</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Dengue Virus</term><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogénicité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus de la dengue</term><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Maladies transmissibles</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aircraft</term><term>Animals</term><term>Disease Vectors</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Geography</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Géographie</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Vecteurs de maladie</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Véhicules de transport aérien</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The global spread of infectious diseases is facilitated by the ability of infected humans to travel thousands of miles in short time spans, rapidly transporting pathogens to distant locations. Mathematical models of the actual and potential spread of specific pathogens can assist public health planning in the case of such an event. Models should generally be parsimonious, but must consider all potentially important components of the system to the greatest extent possible. We demonstrate and discuss important assumptions relative to the parameterization and structural treatment of airline travel in mathematical models. Among other findings, we show that the most common structural treatment of travelers leads to underestimation of the speed of spread and that connecting travel is critical to a realistic spread pattern. Models involving travelers can be improved significantly by relatively simple structural changes but also may require further attention to details of parameterization.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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