SrasV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecordById, pubmed:19475453

On the final size of epidemics with seasonality.

Identifieur interne : 002A63 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002A62; suivant : 002A64

On the final size of epidemics with seasonality.

Auteurs : Nicolas Bacaër [France] ; M Gabriela M. Gomes

Source :

Bulletin of mathematical biology [ 1522-9602 ] ; 2009.

RBID : pubmed:19475453

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Concepts mathématiques, Flambées de maladies (), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Infections à alphavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles biologiques, Modèles statistiques, Saisons, Virus du chikungunya.
MESH :
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Infections à alphavirus.
- Concepts mathématiques, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Modèles statistiques, Saisons, Virus du chikungunya.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Alphavirus Infections (epidemiology), Chikungunya virus, Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data), Humans, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Mathematical Concepts, Models, Biological, Models, Statistical, Seasons.
MESH :
- epidemiology : Alphavirus Infections, Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- Chikungunya virus, Humans, Mathematical Concepts, Models, Biological, Models, Statistical, Seasons.

Abstract

We first study an SIR system of differential equations with periodic coefficients describing an epidemic in a seasonal environment. Unlike in a constant environment, the final epidemic size may not be an increasing function of the basic reproduction number R(0) or of the initial fraction of infected people. Moreover, large epidemics can happen even if R(0) < 1. But like in a constant environment, the final epidemic size tends to 0 when R(0) < 1 and the initial fraction of infected people tends to 0. When R(0) > 1, the final epidemic size is bigger than the fraction 1 - 1/R(0) of the initially nonimmune population. In summary, the basic reproduction number R(0) keeps its classical threshold property but many other properties are no longer true in a seasonal environment. These theoretical results should be kept in mind when analyzing data for emerging vector-borne diseases (West-Nile, dengue, chikungunya) or air-borne diseases (SARS, pandemic influenza); all these diseases being influenced by seasonality.

Url:

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01299608

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-009-9433-7
PubMed: 19475453

Affiliations:

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We first study an SIR system of differential equations with periodic coefficients describing an epidemic in a seasonal environment. Unlike in a constant environment, the final epidemic size may not be an increasing function of the basic reproduction number R(0) or of the initial fraction of infected people. Moreover, large epidemics can happen even if R(0) < 1. But like in a constant environment, the final epidemic size tends to 0 when R(0) < 1 and the initial fraction of infected people tends to 0. When R(0) > 1, the final epidemic size is bigger than the fraction 1 - 1/R(0) of the initially nonimmune population. In summary, the basic reproduction number R(0) keeps its classical threshold property but many other properties are no longer true in a seasonal environment. These theoretical results should be kept in mind when analyzing data for emerging vector-borne diseases (West-Nile, dengue, chikungunya) or air-borne diseases (SARS, pandemic influenza); all these diseases being influenced by seasonality.</div>
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Serveur d'exploration SRAS

On the final size of epidemics with seasonality.

On the final size of epidemics with seasonality.

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

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