Understanding the Spatial Clustering of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong
Identifieur interne : 004F90 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004F89; suivant : 004F91Understanding the Spatial Clustering of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong
Auteurs : P. C. Lai ; C. M. Wong [République populaire de Chine] ; A. J. Hedley [République populaire de Chine] ; S. V. Lo ; P. Y. Leung [République populaire de Chine] ; J. Kong [République populaire de Chine] ; G. M. Leung [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Environmental Health Perspectives [ 0091-6765 ] ; 2004.
Abstract
We applied cartographic and geostatistical methods in analyzing the patterns of disease spread during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong using geographic information system (GIS) technology. We analyzed an integrated database that contained clinical and personal details on all 1,755 patients confirmed to have SARS from 15 February to 22 June 2003. Elementary mapping of disease occurrences in space and time simultaneously revealed the geographic extent of spread throughout the territory. Statistical surfaces created by the kernel method confirmed that SARS cases were highly clustered and identified distinct disease “hot spots.” Contextual analysis of mean and standard deviation of different density classes indicated that the period from day 1 (18 February) through day 16 (6 March) was the prodrome of the epidemic, whereas days 86 (15 May) to 106 (4 June) marked the declining phase of the outbreak. Origin-and-destination plots showed the directional bias and radius of spread of superspreading events. Integration of GIS technology into routine field epidemiologic surveillance can offer a real-time quantitative method for identifying and tracking the geospatial spread of infectious diseases, as our experience with SARS has demonstrated.
Url:
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.7117
PubMed: 15531441
PubMed Central: 1247620
Affiliations:
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Wong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp0112-001550">Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" sort="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A" first="A. J." last="Hedley">A. J. 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C." last="Lai">P. C. Lai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=", and" id="af1-ehp0112-001550">Department of Geography</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, C M" sort="Wong, C M" uniqKey="Wong C" first="C. M." last="Wong">C. M. Wong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp0112-001550">Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" sort="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A" first="A. J." last="Hedley">A. J. Hedley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp0112-001550">Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lo, S V" sort="Lo, S V" uniqKey="Lo S" first="S. V." last="Lo">S. V. Lo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=" and" id="af3-ehp0112-001550">Health Welfare and Food Bureau</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, P Y" sort="Leung, P Y" uniqKey="Leung P" first="P. Y." last="Leung">P. Y. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4-ehp0112-001550">Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kong, J" sort="Kong, J" uniqKey="Kong J" first="J." last="Kong">J. Kong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5-ehp0112-001550">Division of Health Informatics, Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Health Informatics, Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" sort="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="G. M." last="Leung">G. M. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp0112-001550">Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Community Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental Health Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">0091-6765</idno><idno type="eISSN">1552-9924</idno><imprint><date when="2004">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>We applied cartographic and geostatistical methods in analyzing the patterns of disease spread during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong using geographic information system (GIS) technology. We analyzed an integrated database that contained clinical and personal details on all 1,755 patients confirmed to have SARS from 15 February to 22 June 2003. Elementary mapping of disease occurrences in space and time simultaneously revealed the geographic extent of spread throughout the territory. Statistical surfaces created by the kernel method confirmed that SARS cases were highly clustered and identified distinct disease “hot spots.” Contextual analysis of mean and standard deviation of different density classes indicated that the period from day 1 (18 February) through day 16 (6 March) was the prodrome of the epidemic, whereas days 86 (15 May) to 106 (4 June) marked the declining phase of the outbreak. Origin-and-destination plots showed the directional bias and radius of spread of superspreading events. Integration of GIS technology into routine field epidemiologic surveillance can offer a real-time quantitative method for identifying and tracking the geospatial spread of infectious diseases, as our experience with SARS has demonstrated.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Affonso, Dd" uniqKey="Affonso D">DD Affonso</name></author><author><name sortKey="Andrews, Gj" uniqKey="Andrews G">GJ Andrews</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jeffs, L" uniqKey="Jeffs L">L Jeffs</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bailey, Tc" uniqKey="Bailey T">TC Bailey</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gatrell, Ac" uniqKey="Gatrell A">AC 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