SrasV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 003C64

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

Identifieur interne : 003C64 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003C63; suivant : 003C65

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

Auteurs : Sze-Bi Hsu [Taïwan] ; Lih-Ing W. Roeger [États-Unis]

Source :

Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications [ 0022-247X ] ; 2006.

RBID : PMC:7111549

Abstract

In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627–647]. An “acting basic reproductive number” ψ is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size S∞, the initial susceptible population S0, and ψ. If ψ>1, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, S∞, becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If ψ<1, the disease dies out, and then S∞>0 which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when S∞>0, S∞ is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population S0, and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number ψ.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7111549

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2006.11.026
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7111549

Affiliations:

Le document en format XML

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The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

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