A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Identifieur interne : 000A32 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A31; suivant : 000A33A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Auteurs : Tian-Mu Chen ; Jia Rui ; Qiu-Peng Wang ; Ze-Yu Zhao ; Jing-An Cui [République populaire de Chine] ; Ling YinSource :
- Infectious Diseases of Poverty [ 2095-5162 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Animaux, Chiroptera (virologie), Facteurs temps, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (médecine vétérinaire), Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (virologie), Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
- MESH :
- médecine vétérinaire : Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes.
- virologie : Chiroptera, Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Animaux, Facteurs temps, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Betacoronavirus (growth & development), Chiroptera (virology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Reservoirs (veterinary), Disease Reservoirs (virology), Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- growth & development : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- veterinary : Disease Reservoirs.
- virology : Chiroptera, Disease Reservoirs.
- Animals, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors.
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (
The value of
Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
PubMed: 32111262
PubMed Central: 7047374
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.458489.c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0483 7922</institution-id><institution>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,</institution></institution-wrap>Shenzhen, Guangdong Province People’s Republic of China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Guangdong Province People’s Republic of China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infectious Diseases of Poverty</title><idno type="ISSN">2095-5162</idno><idno type="eISSN">2049-9957</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Betacoronavirus (growth & development)</term><term>Chiroptera (virology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Reservoirs (veterinary)</term><term>Disease Reservoirs (virology)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Chiroptera (virologie)</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (médecine vétérinaire)</term><term>Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (virologie)</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="growth & development" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="médecine vétérinaire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="veterinary" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Reservoirs</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chiroptera</term><term>Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Chiroptera</term><term>Disease Reservoirs</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p id="Par1">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p id="Par2">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p id="Par3">The value of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p id="Par4">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Huang, Chaolin" uniqKey="Huang C">Chaolin Huang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yeming" uniqKey="Wang Y">Yeming Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xingwang" uniqKey="Li X">Xingwang Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, Lili" uniqKey="Ren L">Lili Ren</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Jianping" uniqKey="Zhao J">Jianping Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Yi" uniqKey="Hu Y">Yi Hu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Li" uniqKey="Zhang L">Li Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Guohui" uniqKey="Fan G">Guohui Fan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Jiuyang" uniqKey="Xu J">Jiuyang Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gu, Xiaoying" uniqKey="Gu X">Xiaoying Gu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cheng, Zhenshun" uniqKey="Cheng Z">Zhenshun Cheng</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Ting" uniqKey="Yu T">Ting Yu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xia, Jiaan" uniqKey="Xia J">Jiaan 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Grad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rambaut, A" uniqKey="Rambaut A">A Rambaut</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Breban, R" uniqKey="Breban R">R Breban</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A Fontanet</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xs" uniqKey="Zhang X">XS Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pebody, R" 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first="Tian-Mu" last="Chen">Tian-Mu Chen</name><name sortKey="Rui, Jia" sort="Rui, Jia" uniqKey="Rui J" first="Jia" last="Rui">Jia Rui</name><name sortKey="Wang, Qiu Peng" sort="Wang, Qiu Peng" uniqKey="Wang Q" first="Qiu-Peng" last="Wang">Qiu-Peng Wang</name><name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name><name sortKey="Zhao, Ze Yu" sort="Zhao, Ze Yu" uniqKey="Zhao Z" first="Ze-Yu" last="Zhao">Ze-Yu Zhao</name></noCountry><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cui, Jing An" sort="Cui, Jing An" uniqKey="Cui J" first="Jing-An" last="Cui">Jing-An Cui</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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