Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe
Identifieur interne : 001C05 ( Istex/Curation ); précédent : 001C04; suivant : 001C06Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe
Auteurs : Jan C. Semenza [Suède] ; Joacim Rocklöv [Suède] ; Pasi Penttinen [Suède] ; Elisabet Lindgren [Suède]Source :
- Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [ 0077-8923 ] ; 2016-10.
Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine‐preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13132
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :001C05
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:28D2A88331C3F92130240F91A9CDEAEF0E4C1871Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe</title>
<author><name sortKey="Semenza, Jan C" sort="Semenza, Jan C" uniqKey="Semenza J" first="Jan C." last="Semenza">Jan C. Semenza</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</mods:affiliation>
<wicri:noCountry code="no comma">E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</mods:affiliation>
<wicri:noCountry code="no comma">E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rocklov, Joacim" sort="Rocklov, Joacim" uniqKey="Rocklov J" first="Joacim" last="Rocklöv">Joacim Rocklöv</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Umeå University, Umeå</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Penttinen, Pasi" sort="Penttinen, Pasi" uniqKey="Penttinen P" first="Pasi" last="Penttinen">Pasi Penttinen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lindgren, Elisabet" sort="Lindgren, Elisabet" uniqKey="Lindgren E" first="Elisabet" last="Lindgren">Elisabet Lindgren</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno>
<idno type="RBID">ISTEX:28D2A88331C3F92130240F91A9CDEAEF0E4C1871</idno>
<date when="2016" year="2016">2016</date>
<idno type="doi">10.1111/nyas.13132</idno>
<idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-SJHP2WZQ-N/fulltext.pdf</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001C05</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001C05</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">001C05</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe</title>
<author><name sortKey="Semenza, Jan C" sort="Semenza, Jan C" uniqKey="Semenza J" first="Jan C." last="Semenza">Jan C. Semenza</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</mods:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu</mods:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rocklov, Joacim" sort="Rocklov, Joacim" uniqKey="Rocklov J" first="Joacim" last="Rocklöv">Joacim Rocklöv</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Umeå University, Umeå</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Penttinen, Pasi" sort="Penttinen, Pasi" uniqKey="Penttinen P" first="Pasi" last="Penttinen">Pasi Penttinen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lindgren, Elisabet" sort="Lindgren, Elisabet" uniqKey="Lindgren E" first="Elisabet" last="Lindgren">Elisabet Lindgren</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr></monogr>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences</title>
<title level="j" type="sub">Human Health in the Face of Climate Change</title>
<title level="j" type="alt">ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0077-8923</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1749-6632</idno>
<imprint><biblScope unit="vol">1382</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">1</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" from="73">73</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" to="83">83</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page-count">11</biblScope>
<date type="published" when="2016-10">2016-10</date>
</imprint>
<idno type="ISSN">0077-8923</idno>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0077-8923</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract">Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine‐preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Istex/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001C05 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Istex/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 001C05 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= Istex |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= ISTEX:28D2A88331C3F92130240F91A9CDEAEF0E4C1871 |texte= Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe }}
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |