Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity
Identifieur interne : 001164 ( Istex/Curation ); précédent : 001163; suivant : 001165Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity
Auteurs : Philip M. Polgreen [États-Unis] ; Forrest D. Nelson [États-Unis] ; George R. Neumann [États-Unis] ; Robert A. Weinstein [États-Unis]Source :
- Clinical Infectious Diseases [ 1058-4838 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2–4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.
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DOI: 10.1086/510427
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Polgreen, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Dr., Iowa City, IA 52242 (philip-polgreen@uiowa.edu).</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Reprints or correspondence: Dr. Philip M. Polgreen, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Dr., Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Forrest D" sort="Nelson, Forrest D" uniqKey="Nelson F" first="Forrest D." last="Nelson">Forrest D. Nelson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Neumann, George R" sort="Neumann, George R" uniqKey="Neumann G" first="George R." last="Neumann">George R. Neumann</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Weinstein, Robert A" sort="Weinstein, Robert A" uniqKey="Weinstein R" first="Robert A." last="Weinstein">Robert A. 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Polgreen</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>E-mail: philip-polgreen@uiowa.edu</mods:affiliation><country wicri:rule="url">États-Unis</country></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Reprints or correspondence: Dr. Philip M. Polgreen, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Dr., Iowa City, IA 52242 (philip-polgreen@uiowa.edu).</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Reprints or correspondence: Dr. Philip M. Polgreen, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Dr., Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Forrest D" sort="Nelson, Forrest D" uniqKey="Nelson F" first="Forrest D." last="Nelson">Forrest D. Nelson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Neumann, George R" sort="Neumann, George R" uniqKey="Neumann G" first="George R." last="Neumann">George R. Neumann</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Economics, University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Weinstein, Robert A" sort="Weinstein, Robert A" uniqKey="Weinstein R" first="Robert A." last="Weinstein">Robert A. Weinstein</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><mods:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa</mods:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, Iowa, Iowa City</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Clinical Infectious Diseases</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Clinical Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1058-4838</idno><idno type="eISSN">1537-6591</idno><imprint><publisher>The University of Chicago Press</publisher><date type="published">2007</date><biblScope unit="vol">44</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="272">272</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="279">279</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1058-4838</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1058-4838</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2–4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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