Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread
Identifieur interne : 001433 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001432; suivant : 001434Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread
Auteurs : Pietro Li ; Bianchi Lucia ; Viet-Anh Nguyen ; Stephan KitchovitchSource :
Abstract
Abstract: During an outbreak of an infectious disease, people often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. In a given population, the levels of perceived risk of infection vary greatly among individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a number of different factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventive measures, individual and group usage of heuristics in the decision-making process. First we discuss the rigorous assessment of the risk, then we describe how our brain assesses the risk through the use of heuristics that are still rooted in animal evolution. Then we discuss the impact and the role of mass media and social networks in modulating risk perception. Next, we show how mathematical modelling is challenged by multi-scale epidemiological problems where the risk perception level is coupled with all the other microscopic and macroscopic levels. Finally, we draw future scenarios of personal risk evaluation through self-monitoring devices and personal genomics. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the importance of risk perception related to the spreading of a disease and to present a variety of ideas that could be fruitfully explored through modelling.
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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_9
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ISTEX:84CC390FE4DDED0A9A0E398B26E70F1C4B8507F7Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Pietro" sort="Li, Pietro" uniqKey="Li P" first="Pietro" last="Li">Pietro Li</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: pl219@cam.ac.uk</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lucia, Bianchi" sort="Lucia, Bianchi" uniqKey="Lucia B" first="Bianchi" last="Lucia">Bianchi Lucia</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Lawyer in Firenze, Firenze, Italy</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: luciagbianchi@gmail.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nguyen, Viet Anh" sort="Nguyen, Viet Anh" uniqKey="Nguyen V" first="Viet-Anh" last="Nguyen">Viet-Anh Nguyen</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: van25@cam.ac.uk</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kitchovitch, Stephan" sort="Kitchovitch, Stephan" uniqKey="Kitchovitch S" first="Stephan" last="Kitchovitch">Stephan Kitchovitch</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Stephan.Dinkov@gmail.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:84CC390FE4DDED0A9A0E398B26E70F1C4B8507F7</idno><date when="2013" year="2013">2013</date><idno type="doi">10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_9</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-Z09GP91R-M/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001433</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001433</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Pietro" sort="Li, Pietro" uniqKey="Li P" first="Pietro" last="Li">Pietro Li</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: pl219@cam.ac.uk</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lucia, Bianchi" sort="Lucia, Bianchi" uniqKey="Lucia B" first="Bianchi" last="Lucia">Bianchi Lucia</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Lawyer in Firenze, Firenze, Italy</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: luciagbianchi@gmail.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nguyen, Viet Anh" sort="Nguyen, Viet Anh" uniqKey="Nguyen V" first="Viet-Anh" last="Nguyen">Viet-Anh Nguyen</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: van25@cam.ac.uk</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kitchovitch, Stephan" sort="Kitchovitch, Stephan" uniqKey="Kitchovitch S" first="Stephan" last="Kitchovitch">Stephan Kitchovitch</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Stephan.Dinkov@gmail.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: During an outbreak of an infectious disease, people often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. In a given population, the levels of perceived risk of infection vary greatly among individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a number of different factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventive measures, individual and group usage of heuristics in the decision-making process. First we discuss the rigorous assessment of the risk, then we describe how our brain assesses the risk through the use of heuristics that are still rooted in animal evolution. Then we discuss the impact and the role of mass media and social networks in modulating risk perception. Next, we show how mathematical modelling is challenged by multi-scale epidemiological problems where the risk perception level is coupled with all the other microscopic and macroscopic levels. Finally, we draw future scenarios of personal risk evaluation through self-monitoring devices and personal genomics. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the importance of risk perception related to the spreading of a disease and to present a variety of ideas that could be fruitfully explored through modelling.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>springer-ebooks</corpusName><editor><json:item><name>Piero Manfredi</name><affiliations><json:string>, Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56124, Pisa, Italy</json:string><json:string>E-mail: manfredi@ec.unipi.it</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Alberto D'Onofrio</name><affiliations><json:string>, Department of Experimental Oncology, European Institute of Oncology, Via Ripamonti 435, 20141, Milan, Italy</json:string><json:string>E-mail: alberto.donofrio@ifom-ieo-campus.it</json:string></affiliations></json:item></editor><author><json:item><name>Pietro Liò</name><affiliations><json:string>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</json:string><json:string>E-mail: pl219@cam.ac.uk</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Bianchi Lucia</name><affiliations><json:string>Lawyer in Firenze, Firenze, Italy</json:string><json:string>E-mail: luciagbianchi@gmail.com</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Viet-Anh Nguyen</name><affiliations><json:string>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</json:string><json:string>E-mail: van25@cam.ac.uk</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Stephan Kitchovitch</name><affiliations><json:string>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</json:string><json:string>E-mail: Stephan.Dinkov@gmail.com</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><arkIstex>ark:/67375/HCB-Z09GP91R-M</arkIstex><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>chapter</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>Abstract: During an outbreak of an infectious disease, people often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. 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In a given population, the levels of perceived risk of infection vary greatly among individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a number of different factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventive measures, individual and group usage of heuristics in the decision-making process. First we discuss the rigorous assessment of the risk, then we describe how our brain assesses the risk through the use of heuristics that are still rooted in animal evolution. Then we discuss the impact and the role of mass media and social networks in modulating risk perception. Next, we show how mathematical modelling is challenged by multi-scale epidemiological problems where the risk perception level is coupled with all the other microscopic and macroscopic levels. Finally, we draw future scenarios of personal risk evaluation through self-monitoring devices and personal genomics. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the importance of risk perception related to the spreading of a disease and to present a variety of ideas that could be fruitfully explored through modelling.</p></abstract><textClass ana="subject"><keywords scheme="book-subject-collection"><list><label>SUCO11649</label><item><term>Mathematics and Statistics</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass ana="subject"><keywords scheme="book-subject"><list><label>SCM</label><item><term type="Primary">Mathematics</term></item><label>SCM31020</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-1">Physiological, Cellular and Medical Topics</term></item><label>SCB14000</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-2">Immunology</term></item><label>SCC17004</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-3">Math. 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Applications in Chemistry</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCH27010" Priority="4" Type="Secondary">Health Promotion and Disease Prevention</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCH33096" Priority="5" Type="Secondary">Infectious Diseases</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCM31000" Priority="6" Type="Secondary">Mathematical and Computational Biology</BookSubject><SubjectCollection Code="SUCO11649">Mathematics and Statistics</SubjectCollection></BookSubjectGroup></BookInfo><BookHeader><EditorGroup><Editor AffiliationIDS="AffID1"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Piero</GivenName><FamilyName>Manfredi</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>manfredi@ec.unipi.it</Email></Contact></Editor><Editor AffiliationIDS="AffID2"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Alberto</GivenName><FamilyName>D'Onofrio</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>alberto.donofrio@ifom-ieo-campus.it</Email></Contact></Editor><Affiliation ID="AffID1"><OrgDivision>, Department of Economics and Management</OrgDivision><OrgName>University of Pisa</OrgName><OrgAddress><Street>Via Ridolfi 10</Street><City>Pisa</City><Postcode>56124</Postcode><Country>Italy</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation><Affiliation ID="AffID2"><OrgDivision>, Department of Experimental Oncology</OrgDivision><OrgName>European Institute of Oncology</OrgName><OrgAddress><Street>Via Ripamonti 435</Street><City>Milan</City><Postcode>20141</Postcode><Country>Italy</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation></EditorGroup></BookHeader><Part ID="Part2" OutputMedium="All"><PartInfo OutputMedium="All" TocLevels="0"><PartID>2</PartID><PartSequenceNumber>2</PartSequenceNumber><PartTitle>Modeling behaviour change in response to epidemic threats</PartTitle><PartChapterCount>7</PartChapterCount><PartContext><BookID>978-1-4614-5474-8</BookID><BookTitle>Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases</BookTitle></PartContext></PartInfo><Chapter ID="b978-1-4614-5474-8_9" Language="En" OutputMedium="All"><ChapterInfo ChapterType="OriginalPaper" ContainsESM="No" Language="En" NumberingDepth="3" NumberingStyle="ContentOnly" OutputMedium="All" TocLevels="0"><ChapterID>9</ChapterID><ChapterDOI>10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_9</ChapterDOI><ChapterSequenceNumber>9</ChapterSequenceNumber><ChapterTitle Language="En">Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread</ChapterTitle><ChapterFirstPage>139</ChapterFirstPage><ChapterLastPage>152</ChapterLastPage><ChapterCopyright><CopyrightHolderName>Springer Science+Business Media New York</CopyrightHolderName><CopyrightYear>2013</CopyrightYear></ChapterCopyright><ChapterHistory><RegistrationDate><Year>2012</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>29</Day></RegistrationDate><OnlineDate><Year>2012</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>28</Day></OnlineDate></ChapterHistory><ChapterContext><PartID>2</PartID><BookID>978-1-4614-5474-8</BookID><BookTitle>Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases</BookTitle></ChapterContext></ChapterInfo><ChapterHeader><AuthorGroup><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff1" CorrespondingAffiliationID="Aff1"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Pietro</GivenName><FamilyName>Liò</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>pl219@cam.ac.uk</Email></Contact></Author><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff2"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Bianchi</GivenName><FamilyName>Lucia</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>luciagbianchi@gmail.com</Email></Contact></Author><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff1"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Viet-Anh</GivenName><FamilyName>Nguyen</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>van25@cam.ac.uk</Email></Contact></Author><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff1"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Stephan</GivenName><FamilyName>Kitchovitch</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>Stephan.Dinkov@gmail.com</Email></Contact></Author><Affiliation ID="Aff1"><OrgDivision>Computer Laboratory</OrgDivision><OrgName>University of Cambridge</OrgName><OrgAddress><City>Cambridge</City><Country>UK</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation><Affiliation ID="Aff2"><OrgName>Lawyer in Firenze</OrgName><OrgAddress><City>Firenze</City><Country>Italy</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation></AuthorGroup><Abstract ID="Abs1" Language="En" OutputMedium="All"><Heading>Abstract</Heading><Para>During an outbreak of an infectious disease, people often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. In a given population, the levels of perceived risk of infection vary greatly among individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a number of different factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventive measures, individual and group usage of heuristics in the decision-making process. First we discuss the rigorous assessment of the risk, then we describe how our brain assesses the risk through the use of heuristics that are still rooted in animal evolution. Then we discuss the impact and the role of mass media and social networks in modulating risk perception. Next, we show how mathematical modelling is challenged by multi-scale epidemiological problems where the risk perception level is coupled with all the other microscopic and macroscopic levels. Finally, we draw future scenarios of personal risk evaluation through self-monitoring devices and personal genomics. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the importance of risk perception related to the spreading of a disease and to present a variety of ideas that could be fruitfully explored through modelling.</Para></Abstract></ChapterHeader><NoBody></NoBody></Chapter></Part></Book></Publisher></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA"><title>Risk Perception, Heuristics and Epidemic Spread</title></titleInfo><name type="personal" displayLabel="corresp"><namePart type="given">Pietro</namePart><namePart type="family">Liò</namePart><affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: pl219@cam.ac.uk</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Bianchi</namePart><namePart type="family">Lucia</namePart><affiliation>Lawyer in Firenze, Firenze, Italy</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: luciagbianchi@gmail.com</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Viet-Anh</namePart><namePart type="family">Nguyen</namePart><affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: van25@cam.ac.uk</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Stephan</namePart><namePart type="family">Kitchovitch</namePart><affiliation>Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: Stephan.Dinkov@gmail.com</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Piero</namePart><namePart type="family">Manfredi</namePart><affiliation>, Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56124, Pisa, Italy</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: manfredi@ec.unipi.it</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Alberto</namePart><namePart type="family">D'Onofrio</namePart><affiliation>, Department of Experimental Oncology, European Institute of Oncology, Via Ripamonti 435, 20141, Milan, Italy</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: alberto.donofrio@ifom-ieo-campus.it</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="chapter" displayLabel="chapter" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-CGT4WMJM-6"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Springer New York</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">New York, NY</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2013</dateIssued><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2013</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><abstract lang="en">Abstract: During an outbreak of an infectious disease, people often change their behaviour to reduce their risk of infection. In a given population, the levels of perceived risk of infection vary greatly among individuals. The difference in perception could be due to a number of different factors including varying levels of information regarding the pathogen, quality of local healthcare, availability of preventive measures, individual and group usage of heuristics in the decision-making process. First we discuss the rigorous assessment of the risk, then we describe how our brain assesses the risk through the use of heuristics that are still rooted in animal evolution. Then we discuss the impact and the role of mass media and social networks in modulating risk perception. Next, we show how mathematical modelling is challenged by multi-scale epidemiological problems where the risk perception level is coupled with all the other microscopic and macroscopic levels. Finally, we draw future scenarios of personal risk evaluation through self-monitoring devices and personal genomics. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the importance of risk perception related to the spreading of a disease and to present a variety of ideas that could be fruitfully explored through modelling.</abstract><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Piero</namePart><namePart type="family">Manfredi</namePart><affiliation>, Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56124, Pisa, Italy</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: manfredi@ec.unipi.it</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Alberto</namePart><namePart type="family">D'Onofrio</namePart><affiliation>, Department of Experimental Oncology, European Institute of Oncology, Via Ripamonti 435, 20141, Milan, Italy</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: alberto.donofrio@ifom-ieo-campus.it</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><genre type="book" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-5WTPMB5N-F">book</genre><originInfo><publisher>Springer</publisher><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2013</copyrightDate><issuance>monographic</issuance><edition>2013</edition></originInfo><subject><genre>Book-Subject-Collection</genre><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SUCO11649">Mathematics and Statistics</topic></subject><subject><genre>Book-Subject-Group</genre><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCM">Mathematics</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCM31020">Physiological, Cellular and Medical Topics</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCB14000">Immunology</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCC17004">Math. 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