Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise
Identifieur interne : 000703 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000702; suivant : 000704Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise
Auteurs : Michael Smithson ; Yakov Ben-HaimSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2015-10.
Abstract
Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.
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DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397
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Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise</title><author><name sortKey="Smithson, Michael" sort="Smithson, Michael" uniqKey="Smithson M" first="Michael" last="Smithson">Michael Smithson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Psychology, Australian National University Canberra, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ben Aim, Yakov" sort="Ben Aim, Yakov" uniqKey="Ben Aim Y" first="Yakov" last="Ben-Haim">Yakov Ben-Haim</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics, Technion—, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: yakov@technion.ac.il</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Risk Analysis</title><title level="j" type="alt">RISK ANALYSIS</title><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno><idno type="eISSN">1539-6924</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">35</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">10</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1911">1911</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1918">1918</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">8</biblScope><date type="published" when="2015-10">2015-10</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. 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Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Michael</namePart><namePart type="family">Smithson</namePart><affiliation>Department of Psychology, Australian National University Canberra, Australia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Yakov</namePart><namePart type="family">Ben‐Haim</namePart><affiliation>Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics, Technion—, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: yakov@technion.ac.il</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="commentary" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-6N5SZHKN-D">article</genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2015-10</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2015-03-30</dateCreated><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2015</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><abstract>Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. 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We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.</abstract><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>Adaptability</topic><topic>ignorance</topic><topic>info‐gap</topic><topic>robustness</topic><topic>surprise</topic><topic>uncertainty</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Risk Analysis</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Risk Analysis</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-0GLKJH51-B">journal</genre><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Perspective</topic><topic>Perspective</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">0272-4332</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1539-6924</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">RISA</identifier><part><date>2015</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>35</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>10</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1911</start><end>1918</end><total>8</total></extent></part></relatedItem><relatedItem type="references" displayLabel="risa12397-cit-0001"><titleInfo><title>Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">B</namePart><namePart type="family">Fischhoff</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">P</namePart><namePart type="family">Slovic</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">S</namePart><namePart type="family">Lichtenstein</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><genre>journal-article</genre><note type="citation/reference">Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S. 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