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Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

Identifieur interne : 000156 ( Hal/Corpus ); précédent : 000155; suivant : 000157

Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

Auteurs : Anne Cori ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle ; Guy Thomas ; Gabriel Leung ; Alain-Jacques Valleron

Source :

RBID : Hal:inserm-00705651

Abstract

The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (+/-0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000471

Links to Exploration step

Hal:inserm-00705651

Le document en format XML

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<p>The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (+/-0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.</p>
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</author>
<editor role="depositor">
<persName>
<forename>Delphine</forename>
<surname>Autard</surname>
</persName>
<email type="md5">f048e2cc60ba3ff0d2a63cd993824e0f</email>
<email type="domain">inserm.fr</email>
</editor>
<funder>The authors thank the following for research funding: The Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Diseases of the Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government (GML); The University of Hong Kong SARS Research Fund (GML); The EU Sixth Framework Programme for Research for Policy Support (contracts SP22-CT-2004-511066 and FP6-2003-SSP2-513715) (AC, P-YB, GT, GML, A-JV)</funder>
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<date type="whenSubmitted">2012-06-08 09:42:49</date>
<date type="whenModified">2019-02-12 18:06:02</date>
<date type="whenReleased">2012-06-08 09:41:38</date>
<date type="whenProduced">2009-08</date>
<date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2012-06-08</date>
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<forename>Delphine</forename>
<surname>Autard</surname>
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<email type="domain">inserm.fr</email>
</name>
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<idno type="halUri">https://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00705651</idno>
<idno type="halBibtex">cori:inserm-00705651</idno>
<idno type="halRefHtml">PLoS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, 2009, 5 (8), pp.e1000471. ⟨10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000471⟩</idno>
<idno type="halRef">PLoS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, 2009, 5 (8), pp.e1000471. ⟨10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000471⟩</idno>
</publicationStmt>
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<idno type="stamp" n="UPMC" corresp="SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE">Université Pierre et Marie Curie</idno>
<idno type="stamp" n="INSERM">INSERM - Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale</idno>
<idno type="stamp" n="SANTE_PUB_INSERM" corresp="INSERM">Santé Publique à l'Inserm</idno>
<idno type="stamp" n="SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE">Sorbonne Université</idno>
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<note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
<note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
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<analytic>
<title xml:lang="en">Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.</title>
<author role="crp">
<persName>
<forename type="first">Anne</forename>
<surname>Cori</surname>
</persName>
<email type="md5">7612dfb81e725a4652b7f68187d09421</email>
<email type="domain">u707.jussieu.fr</email>
<idno type="halauthorid">731719</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-3065"></affiliation>
</author>
<author role="aut">
<persName>
<forename type="first">Pierre-Yves</forename>
<surname>Boëlle</surname>
</persName>
<email type="md5">e92b0a23df418a05cd8032a2779aa905</email>
<email type="domain">upmc.fr</email>
<idno type="idhal" notation="string">pierre-yves-boelle</idno>
<idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">172531</idno>
<idno type="halauthorid">110596</idno>
<idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5367-8232</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-3065"></affiliation>
</author>
<author role="aut">
<persName>
<forename type="first">Guy</forename>
<surname>Thomas</surname>
</persName>
<idno type="halauthorid">117541</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-3065"></affiliation>
</author>
<author role="aut">
<persName>
<forename type="first">Gabriel</forename>
<forename type="middle">M.</forename>
<surname>Leung</surname>
</persName>
<idno type="halauthorid">497072</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-117362"></affiliation>
</author>
<author role="aut">
<persName>
<forename type="first">Alain-Jacques</forename>
<surname>Valleron</surname>
</persName>
<idno type="halauthorid">116774</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-3065"></affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr>
<idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">1956</idno>
<idno type="issn">1553-734X</idno>
<idno type="eissn">1553-7358</idno>
<title level="j">PLoS Computational Biology</title>
<imprint>
<publisher>Public Library of Science</publisher>
<biblScope unit="volume">5</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">8</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="pp">e1000471</biblScope>
<date type="datePub">2009-08</date>
<date type="dateEpub">2009-08-21</date>
</imprint>
</monogr>
<idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000471</idno>
<idno type="pubmed">19696879</idno>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<profileDesc>
<langUsage>
<language ident="en">English</language>
</langUsage>
<textClass>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Algorithms</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Community-Acquired Infections</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Models, Statistical</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Monte Carlo Method</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">SARS Virus</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Stochastic Processes</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Time Factors</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Cross Infection</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Disease Outbreaks</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Health Personnel</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Hong Kong</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Humans</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Infectious Disease Transmission, Professional-to-Patient</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Markov Chains</classCode>
<classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdv.spee">Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie</classCode>
<classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
</textClass>
<abstract xml:lang="en">
<p>The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (+/-0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.</p>
</abstract>
</profileDesc>
</hal>
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