SrasV1, Hal, Corpus, bibRecord, 000048

Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

Identifieur interne : 000048 ( Hal/Corpus ); précédent : 000047; suivant : 000049

Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

Auteurs : Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco ; J. F. Bustamante-Casta Eda ; Jean-Guy Caputo ; M. E. Jiménez-Corona ; S. Ponce-De-Le N

Source :

RBID : Hal:hal-02507142

English descriptors

mix :
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, outbreak.

Abstract

On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph. The main purpose is to give estimates of the arrival virus and times of the outbreak to other locations. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is around March 20, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be takenAs an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. Last, we show that these estimates are robust to small variations of epidemiological parameters.

Url:

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507142

Links to Exploration step

Hal:hal-02507142

Le document en format XML

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Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

Source :

English descriptors

Abstract

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri