An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.
Identifieur interne : 000906 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000905; suivant : 000907An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.
Auteurs : Dan Bai [États-Unis] ; Cheng-Shiun Leu [États-Unis] ; Joanne E. Mantell [États-Unis] ; Theresa M. Exner [États-Unis] ; Diane Cooper [Afrique du Sud] ; Susie Hoffman [États-Unis] ; Elizabeth A. Kelvin [États-Unis] ; Landon Myer [Afrique du Sud] ; Debbie Constant [Afrique du Sud] ; Jennifer Moodley [Afrique du Sud]Source :
- AIDS and behavior [ 1573-3254 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.
DOI: 10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7
PubMed: 27294266
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.</div>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.</AbstractText>
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<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation>
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<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Childbearing</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HIV infection</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HIV-positive women and men</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Reproductive intentions</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Sensitivity</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">South Africa</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Specificity</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">k-fold cross-validation</Keyword>
</KeywordList>
<CoiStatement>None of the authors declare a conflict of interest. Research involving Human Participants and/or Animals All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. Informed Consent Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study</CoiStatement>
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