An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.
Identifieur interne : 000906 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000905; suivant : 000907An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.
Auteurs : Dan Bai [États-Unis] ; Cheng-Shiun Leu [États-Unis] ; Joanne E. Mantell [États-Unis] ; Theresa M. Exner [États-Unis] ; Diane Cooper [Afrique du Sud] ; Susie Hoffman [États-Unis] ; Elizabeth A. Kelvin [États-Unis] ; Landon Myer [Afrique du Sud] ; Debbie Constant [Afrique du Sud] ; Jennifer Moodley [Afrique du Sud]Source :
- AIDS and behavior [ 1573-3254 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.
DOI: 10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7
PubMed: 27294266
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Kelvin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Myer, Landon" sort="Myer, Landon" uniqKey="Myer L" first="Landon" last="Myer">Landon Myer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Constant, Debbie" sort="Constant, Debbie" uniqKey="Constant D" first="Debbie" last="Constant">Debbie Constant</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Moodley, Jennifer" sort="Moodley, Jennifer" uniqKey="Moodley J" first="Jennifer" last="Moodley">Jennifer Moodley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">AIDS and behavior</title><idno type="eISSN">1573-3254</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Process" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27294266</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2016</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>13</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>24</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1573-3254</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>21</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2017</Year><Month>Feb</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>AIDS and behavior</Title><ISOAbbreviation>AIDS Behav</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>597-609</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bai</LastName><ForeName>Dan</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Leu</LastName><ForeName>Cheng-Shiun</ForeName><Initials>CS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mantell</LastName><ForeName>Joanne E</ForeName><Initials>JE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA. jem57@cumc.columbia.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Exner</LastName><ForeName>Theresa M</ForeName><Initials>TM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cooper</LastName><ForeName>Diane</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Western Cape School of Public Health, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hoffman</LastName><ForeName>Susie</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kelvin</LastName><ForeName>Elizabeth A</ForeName><Initials>EA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Myer</LastName><ForeName>Landon</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Constant</LastName><ForeName>Debbie</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Moodley</LastName><ForeName>Jennifer</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Women's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Cancer Research Initiative, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>P30 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Jan;4(1):97-107</RefSource><PMID Version="1">12925332</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Chest. 2007 Feb;131(2):383-8</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17296637</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Health Care Women Int. 2012;33(4):342-58</RefSource><PMID Version="1">22420676</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>AIDS Patient Care STDS. 2007 Apr;21(4):278-85</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17461723</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>AIDS Educ Prev. 2011 Aug;23(4):313-28</RefSource><PMID Version="1">21861606</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Reprod Health. 2010 Oct 11;7:27</RefSource><PMID Version="1">20937095</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Childbearing</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HIV infection</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HIV-positive women and men</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Reproductive intentions</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Sensitivity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">South Africa</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Specificity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">k-fold cross-validation</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>None of the authors declare a conflict of interest. Research involving Human Participants and/or Animals All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. Informed Consent Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pmc-release"><Year>2018</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27294266</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC5154771</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="mid">NIHMS795128</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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