Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990–2005
Identifieur interne : 001C04 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 001C03; suivant : 001C05Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990–2005
Auteurs : Tom A. Moultrie ; Victoria Hosegood ; Nuala Mcgrath ; Caterina Hill ; Kobus Herbst ; Marie-Louise NewellSource :
- Studies in family planning [ 0039-3665 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990–2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.
Url:
PubMed: 18540522
PubMed Central: 4291094
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<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">7810364</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">7621</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Stud Fam Plann</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Stud Fam Plann</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Studies in family planning</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0039-3665</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">18540522</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4291094</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">EMS61755</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990–2005</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Moultrie</surname><given-names>Tom A.</given-names></name><role>Senior Lecturer in Demography</role><aff id="A1">Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, South Africa.<email>tom.moultrie@uct.ac.za</email></aff></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hosegood</surname><given-names>Victoria</given-names></name><role>Senior Lecturer</role><aff id="A2">London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK</aff><aff id="A7">Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</aff></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>McGrath</surname><given-names>Nuala</given-names></name><role>Lecturer</role><aff id="A8">London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK</aff><aff id="A3">Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</aff></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hill</surname><given-names>Caterina</given-names></name><role>Demographer</role><aff id="A4">Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</aff></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Herbst</surname><given-names>Kobus</given-names></name><role>Senior Lecturer</role><aff id="A5">Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</aff></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Newell</surname><given-names>Marie-Louise</given-names></name><role>Professor of Health and Population Studies</role><aff id="A6">Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</aff></contrib></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>7</day><month>1</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>3</month><year>2008</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>12</day><month>1</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>39</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>39</fpage><lpage>48</lpage><abstract><p id="P1">Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990–2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.</p></abstract></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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