Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa
Identifieur interne : 000E69 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000E68; suivant : 000E70Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa
Auteurs : Makandwe Nyirenda [Afrique du Sud] ; Basia Zaba [Royaume-Uni] ; Till B Rnighausen [Afrique du Sud, États-Unis] ; Victoria Hosegood [Afrique du Sud, Royaume-Uni] ; Marie-Louise Newell [Afrique du Sud, Royaume-Uni]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.
Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).
We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012370
PubMed: 20811499
PubMed Central: 2928261
Affiliations:
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Africa</title><author><name sortKey="Nyirenda, Makandwe" sort="Nyirenda, Makandwe" uniqKey="Nyirenda M" first="Makandwe" last="Nyirenda">Makandwe Nyirenda</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zaba, Basia" sort="Zaba, Basia" uniqKey="Zaba B" first="Basia" last="Zaba">Basia Zaba</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hosegood, Victoria" sort="Hosegood, Victoria" uniqKey="Hosegood V" first="Victoria" last="Hosegood">Victoria Hosegood</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Newell, Marie Louise" sort="Newell, Marie Louise" uniqKey="Newell M" first="Marie-Louise" last="Newell">Marie-Louise Newell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Centre for Paediatric Epidemiology and Biostatistics, UCL Institute of Child Health, London, United Kingdom</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Paediatric Epidemiology and Biostatistics, UCL Institute of Child Health, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methodology/Principal Findings</title><p>Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions/Significance</title><p>We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Walker, N" uniqKey="Walker N">N Walker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Stanecki, Ka" uniqKey="Stanecki K">KA Stanecki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brown, T" uniqKey="Brown T">T Brown</name></author><author><name sortKey="Stover, J" uniqKey="Stover J">J Stover</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lazzari, S" uniqKey="Lazzari S">S Lazzari</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gregson, S" uniqKey="Gregson S">S Gregson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Terceira, N" uniqKey="Terceira N">N Terceira</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kakowa, M" uniqKey="Kakowa M">M Kakowa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mason, Pr" uniqKey="Mason P">PR Mason</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Marston, M" uniqKey="Marston M">M Marston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Harriss, K" uniqKey="Harriss K">K Harriss</name></author><author><name sortKey="Slaymaker, E" uniqKey="Slaymaker E">E Slaymaker</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nardone, A" uniqKey="Nardone A">A Nardone</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mercey, D" uniqKey="Mercey D">D Mercey</name></author><author><name sortKey="Johnson, Am" uniqKey="Johnson A">AM Johnson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccarthy, M" uniqKey="Mccarthy M">M McCarthy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Islam, Mm" uniqKey="Islam M">MM Islam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Conigrave, Km" uniqKey="Conigrave K">KM Conigrave</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mishra, V" uniqKey="Mishra V">V Mishra</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barrere, B" uniqKey="Barrere B">B Barrere</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, R" uniqKey="Hong R">R Hong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, S" uniqKey="Khan S">S Khan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garcia Calleja, Jm" uniqKey="Garcia Calleja J">JM García-Calleja</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gouws, E" uniqKey="Gouws E">E Gouws</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghys, Pd" uniqKey="Ghys P">PD Ghys</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Boerma, Jt" uniqKey="Boerma J">JT Boerma</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghys, Pd" uniqKey="Ghys P">PD Ghys</name></author><author><name sortKey="Walker, N" uniqKey="Walker N">N Walker</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nyirenda, M" uniqKey="Nyirenda M">M Nyirenda</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hosegood, V" uniqKey="Hosegood V">V Hosegood</name></author><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, T" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T">T Bärnighausen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Newell, Ml" uniqKey="Newell M">ML Newell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shisana, O" uniqKey="Shisana O">O Shisana</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rehle, T" uniqKey="Rehle T">T Rehle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simbayi, Lc" uniqKey="Simbayi L">LC Simbayi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zuma, K" uniqKey="Zuma K">K Zuma</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jooste, S" uniqKey="Jooste S">S Jooste</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, T" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T">T Bärnighausen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hosegood, V" uniqKey="Hosegood V">V Hosegood</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tim Us, Im" uniqKey="Tim Us I">IM Timæus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Newell, Ml" uniqKey="Newell M">ML Newell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, T" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T">T Bärnighausen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Welz, T" uniqKey="Welz T">T Welz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hosegood, V" uniqKey="Hosegood V">V Hosegood</name></author><author><name sortKey="Batzing Feigenbaum, J" uniqKey="Batzing Feigenbaum J">J Batzing-Feigenbaum</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tanser, F" uniqKey="Tanser F">F Tanser</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Carpenter, J" uniqKey="Carpenter J">J Carpenter</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bithell, J" uniqKey="Bithell J">J Bithell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, T" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T">T Bärnighausen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tanser, F" uniqKey="Tanser F">F Tanser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gqwede, Z" uniqKey="Gqwede Z">Z Gqwede</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mbizana, C" uniqKey="Mbizana C">C Mbizana</name></author><author><name sortKey="Herbst, K" uniqKey="Herbst K">K Herbst</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Reniers, G" uniqKey="Reniers G">G Reniers</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eaton, J" uniqKey="Eaton J">J Eaton</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Welz, T" uniqKey="Welz T">T Welz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hosegood, V" uniqKey="Hosegood V">V Hosegood</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jaffar, S" uniqKey="Jaffar S">S Jaffar</name></author><author><name sortKey="Batzing Feigenbaum, J" uniqKey="Batzing Feigenbaum J">J Batzing-Feigenbaum</name></author><author><name sortKey="Herbst, K" uniqKey="Herbst K">K Herbst</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Houlihan, Cf" uniqKey="Houlihan C">CF Houlihan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bland, Rm" uniqKey="Bland R">RM Bland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mutevedzi, Pc" uniqKey="Mutevedzi P">PC Mutevedzi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lessells, Rj" uniqKey="Lessells R">RJ Lessells</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ndirangu, J" uniqKey="Ndirangu J">J Ndirangu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, T" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T">T Bärnighausen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tanser, F" uniqKey="Tanser F">F Tanser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hallett, T" uniqKey="Hallett T">T Hallett</name></author><author><name sortKey="Newell, M L" uniqKey="Newell M">M-L Newell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Afrique du Sud</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Massachusetts</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Afrique du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nyirenda, Makandwe" sort="Nyirenda, Makandwe" uniqKey="Nyirenda M" first="Makandwe" last="Nyirenda">Makandwe Nyirenda</name></noRegion><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><name sortKey="Hosegood, Victoria" sort="Hosegood, Victoria" uniqKey="Hosegood V" first="Victoria" last="Hosegood">Victoria Hosegood</name><name sortKey="Newell, Marie Louise" sort="Newell, Marie Louise" uniqKey="Newell M" first="Marie-Louise" last="Newell">Marie-Louise Newell</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Zaba, Basia" sort="Zaba, Basia" uniqKey="Zaba B" first="Basia" last="Zaba">Basia Zaba</name></region><name sortKey="Hosegood, Victoria" sort="Hosegood, Victoria" uniqKey="Hosegood V" first="Victoria" last="Hosegood">Victoria Hosegood</name><name sortKey="Newell, Marie Louise" sort="Newell, Marie Louise" uniqKey="Newell M" first="Marie-Louise" last="Newell">Marie-Louise Newell</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Massachusetts"><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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